|Term due to expire 2017||Term due to expire 2020|
|Kim Carr (ALP)||Jacinta Collins (ALP)|
|Stephen Conroy (ALP)||Mitch Fifield (LIB)|
|Richard Di Natale (GRN)||Gavin Marshall (ALP)|
|John Madigan (IND)||Ricky Muir (AMEP)|
|Bridget McKenzie(NAT)||Janet Rice (GRN)|
|James Paterson (LIB)1||Scott Ryan (LIB)|
1James Paterson replaced Michael Ronaldson on 9 March 2016 after Michael Ronaldson’s resignation.
The 1951 election, which was the first to result in a Senate entirely elected by proportional representation, gave an overall result of 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and one Country Party senator. The 1953 election saw the ALP gain a seat off the Liberals, giving them a 6-4 majority. This was the only time the ALP, or any party, won a majority of Victoria’s Senate delegation under PR.
The 1955 election saw the party that became the Democratic Labor Party win a seat off the ALP. At the 1961 election, both the DLP and the ALP lost a Senate seat, with the Liberals winning two, giving them five seats, with three ALP and one each for the DLP and Country Party. In 1964, the DLP regained their single Senate seat from the Liberal Party. In 1967, the DLP gained a second seat off the Country Party, who were left with no Victorian senators.
The 1970 election saw the Country Party regain their seat, off the ALP. The ALP was reduced to three seats, with four Liberals and two DLP senators. The 1974 double dissolution saw the ALP regain ground, with both DLP senators being defeated, and the ALP gaining two seats, bringing their contingent to five out of ten senators.
The 1975 double dissolution reduced the ALP to four seats, with the National Country Party gaining a second seat. The 1977 election saw former Liberal minister Don Chipp elected to the Senate for the newly-formed Australian Democrats. The National Country Party lost one of its senators to the Democrats. The 1980 election saw the NCP lose its other seat to the Democrats.
In the 1983 double dissolution, the ALP gained a fifth seat at the expense of the second Democrats senator. At the 1984 election, an increase in Senators saw the Liberals and Democrats each gain an extra seat. The Democrats again lost their second Victorian senator at the 1987 double dissolution to Nationals candidate Julian McGauran.
The 1990 election saw McGauran defeated, and the Democrats again regain their second seat. The 1993 election saw the Democrats lose a seat yet again to the Nationals. This produced a result of five each for the ALP and Liberals, and one each for the Nationals and Democrats. This status quo was maintained until the 2004 election, when the ALP lost one of its five senate seats to Family First’s Steven Fielding.
The 2007 election saw the ALP regain a fifth seat at the expense of the Democrats, who lost their last Victorian senator. In 2010, the Coalition lost one of their three seats, and Family First’s Steve Fielding also lost his seat. These two seats went to the Greens’ Richard Di Natale and the Democratic Labor Party’s John Madigan, shifting the split from 4-2 to the right to 3-3.
In 2013, both Labor and Liberal lost their third seat, to the Greens and Ricky Muir of the Motoring Enthusiasts Party.
|Palmer United Party||123,889||3.7||+3.7||0.2562|
|Rise Up Australia||31,000||0.9||+0.9||0.0644|
|Shooters and Fishers||28,220||0.8||-1.5||0.0581|
|Animal Justice Party||25,470||0.8||+0.8||0.0525|
|Democratic Labour Party||23,883||0.7||-0.7||0.0497|
|Help End Marijuana Prohibition||20,084||0.6||+0.6||0.0413|
The ALP and the Liberal Party each won two seats on primary votes. The third Liberal (Helen Kroger) and the Greens candidate (Janet Rice) were the leading contenders for the last two seats, with 75-81% of a quota each.
Ricky Muir of the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party (AMEP) gained a very favourable flow of preferences, first gaining most of the votes from the Fishing and Lifestyle Party (AFLP), at a point where Muir was only two slots away from being knocked out. He then gained further preferences from HEMP, the Shooters and Fishers, and small parts of the preferences from Animal Justice and Rise Up Australia. These flows increased Muir’s position from 3.57% of a quota to 19.4% of a quota.
At this point, nine candidates were left standing:
- Helen Kroger (LIB) – 0.8153 quotas
- Janet Rice (GRN) – 0.7773
- Mehmet Tillem (ALP) – 0.2766
- Barry Michael (PUP) – 0.2601
- Fiona Patten (SXP) – 0.2268
- Ricky Muir (AMEP) – 0.1946
- Mark Farrell (DLP) – 0.1548
- David Collyer (DEM) – 0.1476
- Ashley Fenn (FF) – 0.1457
Family First preferences mainly favoured Muir:
- Kroger (LIB) – 0.8183
- Rice (GRN) – 0.7781
- Muir (AMEP) – 0.2985
- Tillem (ALP) – 0.2772
- Michael (PUP) – 0.2611
- Patten (SXP) – 0.2270
- Farrell (DLP) – 0.1905
- Collyer (DEM) – 0.1479
Democrats preferences favoured the Sex Party:
- Kroger (LIB) – 0.8187
- Rice (GRN) – 0.8031
- Patten (SXP) – 0.3156
- Muir (AMEP) – 0.3077
- Tillem (ALP) – 0.2780
- Michael (PUP) – 0.2613
- Farrell (DLP) – 0.2141
DLP preferences split between Palmer United, Muir and Kroger:
- Kroger (LIB) – 0.8527
- Rice (GRN) – 0.8048
- Muir (AMEP) – 0.3825
- Michael (PUP) – 0.3401
- Patten (SXP) – 0.3391
- Tillem (ALP) – 0.2791
Labor preferences elected Greens candidate Janet Rice:
- Rice (GRN) – 1.0760
- Kroger (LIB) – 0.8559
- Muir (AMEP) – 0.3833
- Patten (SXP) – 0.3415
- Michael (PUP) – 0.3415
Most of the Greens’ surplus flowed to the Sex Party, who were on the verge of being knocked out. Palmer United preferences gave a big boost to Muir:
- Kroger (LIB) – 0.8605
- Muir (AMEP) – 0.7173
- Patten (SXP) – 0.4197
Patten’s preferences overwhelmingly flowed to Muir, and elected him over Liberal senator Helen Kroger.
- A – Derryn Hinch (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party)
- B – David Collyer (Unaffiliated)
- C – Bruce Poon (Animal Justice)
- D – Labor
- E – Luke James (Science Party)
- F – Catriona Thoolen (Palmer United Party)
- G – Hugh Dolan (Jacqui Lambie Network)
- H – Vickie Janson (Australian Christians)
- I – Georgia Nicholls (Sustainable Australia)
- J – Lachlan Simpson (Pirate)
- K – Chris Sinnema (Socialist Equality Party)
- L – Isaac Golden (Health Australia Party)
- M – Graham Askey (Renewable Energy Party)
- N – Danielle Lehrer (VOTEFLUX)
- O – Peter Bain (Family First)
- P – May Hanna (Christian Democratic Party)
- Q – Rose Godde (The Arts Party)
- R – Stephen Vereker (Democratic Labour)
- S – Craig Isherwood (Citizens Electoral Council)
- T – John Perkins (Secular Party)
- U – Daniel Jones (Liberty Alliance)
- V – Naomi Halpern (Nick Xenophon Team)
- W – Ricky Muir (Motoring Enthusiast)
- X – Jason Tuazon-McCheyne (Australian Equality Party)
- Y – Simon Roylance (One Nation)
- Z – Lalitha Chelliah (Socialist Alliance)
- AA – Garry Kerr (Country Party)
- AB – John Madigan (Manufacturing and Farming)
- AC – Greg Chipp (Drug Law Reform)
- AD – David Scanlon (Voluntary Euthanasia Party)
- AE – Graham McCarthy (Mature Australia)
- AF – Liberal/Nationals
- AG – Jake Wilson (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- AH – Duncan Spender (Liberal Democrats)
- AI – Daniel Nalliah (Rise Up Australia)
- AJ – David Knight (Australian Progressives)
- AK – Greens
- AL – Meredith Doig (Sex Party)
- Stephen Juhasz
- Karthik Arasu
- Dennis Hall
- Dana Spasojevic
- John Karagiannidis
- Geoff Lutz
- Allan Mull
- Chris Ryan
- Eric Vadarlis
- Mark Dickenson
- Immanuel Shmuel
- Glenn Floyd
- Meredith Urie
- Trevor Nye
- Peter Hawks
- Christopher Beslis
The Coalition should win at least five seats, Labor should win at least four, and the Greens should win at least seat. The left (either Labor or Greens) should win at least one of the last two seats, with the last seat a contest between the other left party, the Liberal Party, and one of a number of small parties.
Incumbent senators Ricky Muir and John Madigan will be running for re-election, and we have very little information about how much support they have, or what sort of campaign they will run. Madigan is now separated from the Democratic Labour Party, which has some kind of support base.
If Muir wins a similar vote as in 2013, he won’t come close to winning a second term, but he now has a much higher national profile, which could lead to a stronger vote.
The Nick Xenophon Team should also be considered as a possible contender, if they are polling a healthy figure across the country.
The Sex Party has also polled a substantial vote in Victoria at some past elections. We don’t have any information about whether Derryn Hinch could poll enough of a vote to be a contender.