|Term due to expire 2017||Term due to expire 2020|
|George Brandis (LNP)||Matthew Canavan (LNP)|
|Joanna Lindgren (LNP)||Chris Ketter (ALP)|
|Joe Ludwig (ALP)||Glenn Lazarus (GLT)|
|Jan McLucas (ALP)||Ian Macdonald (LNP)|
|Barry O’Sullivan (LNP)||James McGrath (LNP)|
|Larissa Waters (GRN)||Claire Moore (ALP)|
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.
From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.
The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.
The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.
The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.
The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.
The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.
In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.
In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.
|Palmer United Party||258,944||9.9||+9.9||0.6923|
|Katter’s Australian Party||76,918||2.9||+2.9||0.2058|
|Animal Justice Party||27,984||1.1||+1.1||0.0749|
|Help End Marijuana Prohibition||23,624||0.9||+0.9||0.0630|
|Shooters and Fishers||18,235||0.7||-1.3||0.0490|
|Fishing and Lifestyle||13,394||0.5||-0.4||0.0357|
The Liberal National Party won two seats on primary votes, and Labor won one, with Labor winning another with a very small amount of preferences.
Let’s fast forward until there are only eight candidates left in the race, running for two spots:
- Matthew Canavan (LNP) – 0.9063 quotas
- Glenn Lazarus (PUP) – 0.7012
- Adam Stone (GRN) – 0.4622
- James Blundell (KAP) – 0.3007
- Daniel McCarthy (AFLP) – 0.2281
- Joel Murray (SXP) – 0.1580
- James Moylan (HEMP) – 0.1305
- Jim Savage (ON) – 0.1116
A majority of One Nation preferences flowed to the Fishing and Lifestyle Party, but HEMP managed to gain enough to get ahead of the Sex Party.
- Canavan (LNP) – 0.9073
- Lazarus (PUP) – 0.7019
- Stone (GRN) – 0.4626
- Blundell (KAP) – 0.3018
- McCarthy (AFLP) – 0.2992
- Moylan (HEMP) – 0.1675
- Murray (SXP) – 0.1582
Sex Party preferences overwhelmingly flowed to HEMP, putting them into fourth place:
- Canavan (LNP) – 0.9080
- Lazarus (PUP) – 0.7031
- Stone (GRN) – 0.4709
- Moylan (HEMP) – 0.3133
- Blundell (KAP) – 0.3024
- McCarthy (AFLP) – 0.3006
Preferences that were sitting with the Fishing and Lifestyle Party split between HEMP (putting them into third place) and Palmer United:
- Canavan (LNP) – 0.9224
- Lazarus (PUP) – 0.8019
- Moylan (HEMP) – 0.4773
- Stone (GRN) – 0.4714
- Blundell (KAP) – 0.3251
Katter’s Australian Party preferences elected Lazarus:
- Lazarus (PUP) – 1.0904
- Canavan (LNP) – 0.9549
- Moylan (HEMP) – 0.4788
- Stone (GRN) – 0.4736
The Greens pulled back ahead of HEMP on the Lazarus surplus:
- Canavan (LNP) – 0.9803
- Stone (GRN) – 0.5305
- Moylan (HEMP) – 0.4866
A majority of HEMP preferences flowed to the Greens, but enough flowed to Canavan to elect him:
- Canavan (LNP) – 1.1536
- Stone (GRN) – 0.8351
- A – Chris Cox (Cyclists Party)
- B – Frances Jankowski (The Arts Party)
- C – Trevor Bell (Secular Party)
- D – Labor
- E – Gabe Buckley (Liberal Democrats)
- F – Peter Radic (Online Direct Democracy)
- G – Liberal National
- H – Paul Bevan (Animal Justice)
- I – Rowell Walton (Katter’s Australian Party)
- J – Marnie Southward (Australian Equality Party)
- K – Terry Snell (Mature Australia)
- L – Suzanne Grant (Nick Xenophon Team)
- M – Brandon Selic (Pirate)
- N – Bernard Gaynor (Liberty Alliance)
- O – Deb Cotter (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party)
- P – Jan Pukallus (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Q – Michael Turner (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- R – Sal Rivas (Unaffiliated)
- S – Sheila Vincent (Democratic Labour)
- T – Rod McGarvie (Family First)
- U – James Moylan (Renewable Energy Party)
- V – Robin Bristow (Sex Party/HEMP)
- W – Mark Gardner (VOTEFLUX)
- X – Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
- Y – Paul Taylor (Rise Up Australia)
- Z – Mike Head (Socialist Equality Party)
- AA – Wayne Solomon (Christian Democratic Party)
- AB – James McDonald (Palmer United Party)
- AC – Glenn Lazarus (Glenn Lazarus Team)
- AD – Marcus Saltmarsh (Jacqui Lambie Network)
- AE – Ken Stevens (Australian Progressives)
- AF – Shea Taylor (Australian Christians)
- AG – Deb Lynch (Drug Law Reform)
- AH – Jason Woodforth (Health Australia Party)
- AI – Pete Mailler (Country Minded)
- AJ – Jeremy Davey (Veterans Party)
- AK – Greens
- AL – John Roles (Sustainable Australia)
- Shyamal Reddy
- Greg McMahon
- David Bundy
- Kim Vuga
- Jim Savage
- Tony Moore
- Josephine Potter
- Paul Stevenson
- Marshal Anderson
- Ian Eugarde
- Julie Boyd
- Leeanne Hanna-Mcguffie
- Zoemaree Harris
- Michael Kaff
- Terry Jorgensen
- Gary James Pead
- John Gibson
- Belinda Marriage
- Greg Beattie
The Liberal National Party should win at least five seats, Labor should win at least four, and the Greens should win at least one.
The LNP is currently in a strong position to win a sixth seat, but if their polling drops (or is lower in the Senate than the House) they could struggle to retain their sixth senator.
Current polling puts Labor on just under half a quota for a fifth seat, and the Greens vote is too low to give them a chance of winning a second seat, but a relatively small increase in the Greens vote could see them as a contender for the last seat.
Senate polling has suggested that both the Glenn Lazarus Team and the Nick Xenophon Team are polling in the range which could give them a chance of winning the last seat, depending on exhaustion and favourable preference flows.
We have no solid information on popular support for Pauline Hanson. If she polled 4%, like she did the last time she ran for the Senate in Queensland in 2007, then she would have a good chance of winning – but more recent statewide elections in NSW have her support at a much lower level.