ALP 3.0%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Rowland, since 2010.
Geography
Western Suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers the eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and some parts of Parramatta and Holroyd council areas. Suburbs include Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Girraween, The Ponds and Riverstone, and parts of Toongabbie and Pendle Hill.
Redistribution
Greenway was largely unchanged. It’s south-eastern and south-western boundaries shifted slightly west, losing parts of Pendle Hill and Toongabbie to Parramatta and gaining a small area in the south-western corner from Chifley.
History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.
Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.
The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries.
The 2009 redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, winning that seat off the ALP.
Labor councillor Michelle Rowland won the redrawn Greenway in 2010, and was re-elected in 2013 with a 2% swing, despite a general anti-Labor swing.
Candidates
- Timothy Mak (Liberal Democrats)
- Vivek Singha (Science Party)
- Chris Winslow (Greens)
- Rohan Salins (Family First)
- Aaron Wright (Christian Democratic Party)
- Yvonne Keane (Liberal)
- Avtar Billu (Independent)
- Michelle Rowland (Labor)
Assessment
Greenway is a marginal Labor seat, and could conceivably fall to the Liberal Party. The absence of a Liberal candidate suggests that the seat is not a high priority, and Michelle Rowland appears to be a strong local MP.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michelle Rowland | Labor | 38,319 | 44.5 | +2.2 | 44.4 |
| Jaymes Diaz | Liberal | 34,488 | 40.0 | -1.3 | 40.0 |
| Jodie Camille Wootton | Palmer United Party | 3,483 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 4.1 |
| Allan Green | Christian Democratic Party | 3,253 | 3.8 | +0.1 | 3.8 |
| Chris Brentin | Greens | 3,175 | 3.7 | -2.3 | 3.6 |
| Tom Lillicrap | Sex Party | 1,516 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.7 |
| Anthony Gino Belcastro | Katter’s Australian Party | 681 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Maree Nichols | Rise Up Australia | 681 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Jamie Cavanough | Australian Voice | 545 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 9,549 | 11.1 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michelle Rowland | Labor | 45,639 | 53.0 | +2.1 | 53.0 |
| Jaymes Diaz | Liberal | 40,502 | 47.0 | -2.1 | 47.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. “North” covers those parts north of the M7. Areas south of the railway line have been grouped as “South” with the remainder in “Central”.
The ALP’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 50.6% in the north to 60.2% in the south.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 50.6 | 29,946 | 36.5 |
| South | 60.2 | 17,078 | 20.8 |
| Central | 54.6 | 14,828 | 18.1 |
| Other votes | 49.0 | 20,117 | 24.5 |
Probably the only seat outside of Qld to record a positive swing to the ALP at the last election, largely due to the incompetence of the Liberal candidate. I wonder what the Libs will toss up this time around…
Matt
Nobody could be worse.
Then again i’m no fan of Rowland. IMV she is shrill , as well as being boring , & scripted. Perhaps it’s a lawyer thing ??
Then again i must be missing something, because Rowland is a shadow minister. She is also supposed to be a popular local member.
IMV this seat could ,( & will IMV) polarise dramatically, as the north swings hard to the libs.
This will demonstrate how with a more favourable redistribution to the libs, Rowland would have been in deep trouble.
Yes well your not a fan of any labor MP it seems so thats no surprise. I find Michelle to be one of Labor’s better communicators, even when she was a backbencher and would make an excellent minister.
Dan
Try to wake up.
I’m not a fan of many pollies.
Truly i would love to BECOME a fan of a shitload more. Especially ones from the major parties !!.
Not gonna happen. I demand better, & won’t settle for less.
Maybe you ought to think about that. ???
Perhaps it is not me having a “problem”, but you setting a very low bar indeed ??
FYI I would have voted against Diaz == TWICE !!!.
Perhaps also you missed my comments on the former member. She is currently the member for Maquarie.
The Liberals would almost certainly have won this in 2013 if not for the hilariously bad Diaz. There might actually be room for a rebound for them this time, if they get a half-decent candidate running.
What was the Senate vote in Greenway? This will partly demonstrate how much of a negative vote Diaz had.
The entire NSW Liberal Senate vote was severely distorted by the column 1 draw of the Liberal Democrats, who got over 10%.
(In Greenway for the Senate, the Liberals & Nationals ticket polled 31.4% and the Liberal Democrats polled 13.0%).
kme
On the face of it . it looks like a 4.5% break.However, I’ll guess you could add the PUP vote as well, in essence, which is another 4%.
So id chalk this win up to the NSW liberal party !!!.
Essentially an election winning 7% swing — for the ALP. !!!!
Maybe the libs do have a chance here this time !!!!
kme
OOPS. I forgot to consider the huge informal vote of 2013 in this seat . OVER 11% . I’d put that down solely to the “inspirational” influence of Jaime !!!
So i’ll recalculate my estimate of the swings Jaime & the NSW liberal party achieved
4.5 % DIRECT LOSS (to the ALP)
4.0 % to PUP (preferences back to the LP balanced by loss to other minor parties)
5% + Informal
A total of 13.5 % What an incredible achievement !!!!.
Well done to the voters of Greenway for sending such a clear message to our politicians.
The same voters now have the opportunity to re emphasise the same message by tossing out Rowland by as large a margin as possible. Providing of course the libs supply a quality candidate.
What !!!???
The NSW Libs have not even got a candidate yet !!!.
With the luck Rowland has she ought to give up politics , & become a professional gambler.
The voters rejected Diaz because he was hopeless not to emphasise how it likes to go against the trend so its pretty silly to say they should kick out Rowland who works hard and has already made it on the frontbench. Also, on its boundaries now this seat always has high informal, infact it was lower then what it was in 04 and 2010 so its pretty incorrect to say 5% of the electorate just voted informally because of Diaz
Dan
How did you manage to get the figures in the informal vote in Greenway re 2004 , & 2010. ??. None the less the informal vote will be fascinating this time.
on wikipedia it tells you at the bottom near the total of each election in votes cast. Its generally always around 10% on the current boundaries
The AEC provides that information. Eg 2010 results for Greenway are at http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-122.htm
The Liberal candidate is Yvonne Keane, resident of the Hills District and founder of the Hear the Children Early Intervention Centre.
Sounds like a pretty strong, albeit tardy candidacy IMO. I still believe that this seat is unlikely to change hands, given the debacle last time in which Rowland was able to increase her profile but at least the Libs are taking the opportunity a little bit seriously.
W of S
Interesting isn’t it that people overlook the fact that Diaz ran in 2010 as well. He received (note i don’t say earned!! ) a 4+% swing on that occasion.
Rowland was the beneficiary of an incredibly abberent situation in 2013 ,in having an opponent whom any normal person would be ashamed to vote for. So i give her very little credit for what was in reality, an incredibly modest win. Which BTW, was only secured with crucial minor party preferences, & huge informal vote.
Most will be unaware that Keane nominated for pre selection against Diaz in 2013, but withdrew, when it was clear that Diaz senior would get it little boy the gig. If Keane had stood in 2013 there can’t be much doubt that she would have consigned Rowland to the long history of failed ALP candidates. Her rightful, & deserving place IMV.
Consequently the following can be deduced or extrapolated.
1/ The “Diaz Factor” gave Labor about a 6+% boost to their 2PP vote
2/ Greenway in reality is a lib electorate, with a sitting ALP member
3/ Rowland’s true margin is – 3% + incumbency, worth say 2% = – 1%
4/ It is almost fair to question the overall legitimacy of Rowland. On account of, she was elected almost as a caretaker MP in effect, because of the alternative being so embarrassingly horrific !!!
5/ In conclusion IT would be reasonable to estimate, that the coalition would need to lose a dozen + seats, before their chances of taking Greenway would start to fade.
PS Wreathy, this is what’s known in rugby parlance as the “pick & drive ” !!!. For you mate !!!
cheers WD
MM
My above post constitutes a direct response to your post of 28/ 04/.
cheers WD
Winediamond it was the most phenomenal win across the country hardly modest at all. Also minor party candidates in Greenway, 2/7 were from progressive sides, the rest from conservative sides so good on her. And informal votes hurt labor more given there mostly by ethnic voters who tend to vote labor. I still don’t get why your overly hostile towards michelle she is actually one of labor’s best.
Greenway is not a liberal seat, if it was it would have been won in 2010. So far the libs have only won it once on its current boundaries in 2004. I think its really dumb to play the guessing game on what would have been and what the margin really is, it doesnt matter. Also Michelle won it on her own in 2010 without the need for a gaffe so thats really shocking you can’t give her credit and call her a caretaker MP, I suppose you’d say that about Mark Taylor in Seven Hills given the labor candidate was a shocker there.
WD
I remember this episode and thought she came across as a real whiner. A privileged, well paid MP complaining as if she’s a poor hard-done-by shop steward was not a good look IMO.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mps-sick-child-furore-abbott-still-doesnt-get-it-says-pm-20130515-2jnme.html
Since the ALP only just held the seat in 2010 (0.7% from memory) its stands to reason that the Liberals would have won it last time and would probably now have a margin of around 3%, given the statewide result.
With the current polling though and the probability that the correction will be stronger in Western Sydney, I doubt they have a realistic chance this time, but might peg the margin back slightly.
Peter thats disgraceful, had the liberals granted the pair it wouldn’t have been a news story. You know they were in the wrong particularly when Pyne lied about it on TV. If this is the rights attack, criticising a new mother for looking after her infant child then good luck.
W of S
No one has calculated yet the influence of the approximately 8000 + new voters in Greenway. Presumably they (these new residents), must be concentrated in the lib leaning north, as these are where most of the new (expensive ) housing estates are located.
Assuming my calculations are correct the true vote will split here roughly 55-45 % to Keane . This area of approximately 36000+ voters would dominate the overall results with a further underlying swing to Keane amounting to at least a further 1/2 -1 %.
The dice are a little loaded in a way !!!
So in conclusion my estimation (of results) may be too conservative. But rather than recalculate on the lower end, Il’l predict on the other side in saying that the coalition could lose 2 dozen seats before their chances in Greenway would evaporate completely.
So Greenway IMV is very likely to be won by Keane, under the foreseeable circumstances.
Peterjk23
Thanks for the support, & the partial consensus on Greenway’s results.
It is likely the the libs would have won Greenway in 2010 with a different candidate, instead of that idiot.
Even (Louise) Markus may have had a chance !!!.
Probably in 2010 comparatively few voters knew how stupid Diaz is. Obviously in 2013 only the most ill informed could have any doubt , as he had opened his mouth, & confirmed it as fact !!!.
As youv’e probably noticed ,our views on the prospects for 2016 are very different. So i’ll happily invite you to find fault with my reasoning, & figuring….
Thanks for the link re Rowland. I’ll enjoy reacquainting myself with it
cheers WD
Peterjk23
WRT to the link to the SMH article 2013.
Yes i remember this whole cynically unconscionable, & disgraceful debacle now. This incident is actually a good example of how the analysis of an event/story , needs an appreciation of the personalities, & broader context, & circumstance involved.
3 Years hence we are now in a position to make a proper (historical) analysis (as opposed to an immediate news reporting one).
Firstly the journalist Jonathan Snow is a very good journo. He has reported accurately, but has missed some crucial points. He might have added some analysis, or opinion, & did not offer any conclusions. Some would say that is good journalism. However the result is usually that relevant information is lost.
At the time Feminists, & the left were basking , & luxuriating, in the warm afterglow of JULIA’s (in)famous misogyny speech. The true nature (a cynical , politically motivated , opportunistic, & irrelevant diatribe ) of this speech, was not yet appreciated. However it had succeeded in creating some momentum, for the moribund PM.
This is the true (historical) context.
Next on the labor side this situation was seen as a further (cynical ) political opportunity to turn up the volume.
On the liberal side there was trepidation of engaging in any way, because this whole issue was seen as dangerous ground for the coalition, & Abbott personally. This is why they did not take the opportunity to confront the blatant cynical, hypocrisy, & opportunism of this event. They chose to surrender as quietly, & quickly as possible. This was a strategic mistake, & I believe they ought to have had a go, & hit Rowland out of the park !!!.
Some critical background: Pyne almost certainly withheld details from Entsch. Pyne is a guttersnipe, & troll, of the lowest order.
Entsch is a universally liked & respected MP, apart from the liberal right. He is a devoted father who actually retired in 2007 in order to look after his teenage sons as a single parent, at a critical time for them.
By his high standards most of us would be negligent parents to some degree. This may have partially lead to his overly personal question (judgement ) of Rowland. However IMV it was entirely righteous, & correct !!! Call me harsh !!!.
He was fully justified in asking why if Octavia Rowland was so ill, had Michelle not left parliament a week earlier. IOW how was this not just a convenient political beat up, caused by labor not bothering to show proper cause, & EXPLANATION in the first place??. That was his ( probably unwelcome) job as opposition whip FFS.
Around this time i don’t recall whether it was before or after, Rowland was interviewed about being a mother/MP (don’t recall whether it was live or in print). She went on, on about how great her husband was as primary carer, & how he had put his career on hold for her. She also went on about how lucky she was to be able to afford (live in??) help. In contrast to so many other working aussie mums !!!.
This interview completely exposes the total hypocrisy, & naked un-principled political opportunism of Rowland. The libs should have belted her out of the park.
Dan
See my above post to Peterjk23. As you can see his link was completely relevant, appropriate, & the article itself quite neutral.
His opinion of Rowland’s behaviour is entirely justified, & has been vindicated by my post.
Now you can apologise to him like a good lad !!!.
Dan
Re : “caretaker MP’s” !!!.
As was shown in 2015. the state coalition had & still have a lot of caretakers in their ranks. If Labor got a decent leader & put in, they might retire the rest of them in 2019, & some who are not (caretakers) !!!. Clearly that includes your friend Mark Taylor !!!.
Greenway is most certainly now a marginal liberal seat. It probably already was in 2010, & 2013.
Re : M Rowland -caretaker MP 2010 -2013
Clearly Dan you are having difficulty accepting the facts so Il’l go over them again for you.
1/ Greenway was notionally ALP after a very favourable re distribution. BTW the boundaries of Greenway sans 2010 were more favourable than 2004, because nearly 5000 predominantly lib voters in the NW (mostly but not entirely north of the M7 ) were placed in Chifely where they have remained. These areas have little connection with the rest of Chifley other than they are also with Blacktown LGA, as is most of Greenway. Another great move by the AEC.
2/ Markus had hurriedly fled to Macquarie , in an act of cowardice, that ought not to have been sanctioned. BTW It pissed off TA enough for him to fire her from the shadow ministry, & he was known for not firing people that deserved it !!!.
So there was no incumbency factor to overcome, not that Markus would have enjoyed much anyway.
3/ Diaz was her opponent. Whilst it probably wasn’t fully appreciated at the time, the fact remains she had the incredible good fortune of running against the worst lib candidate in history!!!
4/ In 2010 there were actually 8 indies, & minor parties, +the Greens” which split close enough to 55-45. This indicates even a low level of green preferences. So the fact is ,she was elected on preferences.
5/ In her defence it should be noted that she did have to overcome all the inestimable damage done to her cause by Kevin, & Julia.
So all in all a thoroughly unearned win to an undeserving victor., by default.
Dan
Re M Rowland caretaker MP 2013-2016
A “phenomenal win ” eh ???. That is your opinion , without fact ,or justification.
I have supplied both. However i will recapitulate again.
1/ FACT Although Rowland received less preferences in 2013, they were still crucial to her re-election. The number or leanings of the minors is irrelevant. Labor do benefit disproportionally for example , from ignorant voters of the Sex Party, unaware their preferences flow to the Greens, & hence to labor. Note this was 2% of the primary vote in 2013 , a significant , perhaps even a crucial ingredient in the end result.
2/ Dan, you have no way of knowing the composition of the informal vote. To characterise it as ethnic is facile, & perhaps amusingly, mildly racist !!!. For all you, or anybody else knows it could comprise anyone i.e. if i wanted to be shockingly offensive, & elitist i could say it was comprised of stupid, uneducated, & ignorant bogans !!!. Of greater pertinence no one can say how many lib voters refused to vote for Diaz.
3/ The ” Jaime ” Factor Dan you have acknowledged that Diaz was appalling . i haven’t seen you defend him.
So did he have no influence ??
If he did ,put a number on it. I have (6-7%) , moreover iv’e put forward my reasoning, & calculation. if my numbers are correct then Rowland was gifted her result. Therefore as iv’e stated her result was unearned, & undeserved.
If this is not accurate explain how, & why??
The outcome must be one or the other, it cannot possibly be both. Even the most agile of pollies could not walk both sides of this street !!!
If Rowland was only on a 1% margin in 2010, it would be a fair assessment that she would have been easily defeated in 2013. In fact, I’m surprised she only got a 2% swing towards her with the abysmal quality of her opponent and the magnitude of his gaffe.
winediamond: tl;dr!
Winediamond what on earth are you on?! The issue had nothing to do with gender or feminism it was a MOTHER wanting to go take care of her sick child who got sicker as the days went on when she left for parliament. Also last time I checked Warren wasn’t a doctor so it’s not upto him to determine how sick a child is, what a bunch of BS. Also the request was made to the whip not the manager of opposition business so he had the details they were not withheld. Just typical desperation from the right to make up facts. Maybe you can apologise for telling a mother how to act, grow up.
I don’t think you understand what a caretaker MP is at all I think your just intimidated by Michelle as she is a talented young woman in a marginal seat. You all state she will probably likely win this again so how can someone be a caretaker MP over three terms that’s just dumb IMV.
Please name the suburbs you claim shouldn’t be in Chifley, it’s roughly the same seat it was in 2004. Also you can’t say it’s a liberal seat now but labor in 2010 given its basically the same seat.
Mate Louise was preselected basically a year before the election so the Libs had plenty of time it was not a hurried act that lib brand in the area is just crap (as it is in most areas) highlighted by the fact that they couldn’t even find someone who lives in the electorate to run this time.
Idk what your on about with your minor party spiel but if you look at the most multicultural electorates they have a higher informal rate and if you look at the greenway booths with the higher informal rates they aren’t in areas like Kellyville Ridge and Stanhope Gardens but by all means tell yourself what you need to to justify calling this a liberal seat.
She won in her own right in 2010 without the influence of Jamie doing something scandalous but do you know what else was just as scandalous, the government at the time so there would be people who vote nationally rather then locally so maybe you should account for that next time you make another one of your margin calculations given you love to go on a about what a shocking government it was 🙂
@Dan the difference was 2010 was a tossup whereas 2013 was not. You really believe that had that fool Diyaz not been her opponent she would have won!? The entire swing in NSW was propelled by the Western Suburbs (which by the way Greenway is apart of) in an election that saw the Libs have their best result in NSW since 2PP figures have been available, barring the 1966 landslide.
I do not care if she was a freaking goddess or something, there is no way she would have held on in those circumstances, especially considering how in 2010, very much a contestable election for Labor, she only just held on. Hanging on in 2010 is no accomplishment at all considering Labor did all-right nationally.
I strongly suspect that she would have been defeated in 2013 but I suppose we’ll never know now.
‘Wreathy of Sydney’ that is just being selective with what happened. The result in Greenway in 2010 was exactly the same as it was in NSW in term of swing. In terms of the region, the swing against labor in Greenway was lower then in other western sydney seats such as Lindsay, Parramatta, Watson, Fowler, Blaxland, Chifley, McMahon and Reid, even lower then neighbouring Mitchell. So considering it was an open seat and the size of the swing in Western Sydney, yeah good on Michelle for winning what should have easily been a pick up for the liberal party in 2010
And yes I don’t argue she would have won if Yvonne or anyone else was the candidate in 2013, I just think its silly to guess what the margin would have been you even concede we will never know
One difference between 2013 and 1996/2004 was that Labor’s vote held up better in outer Sydney (and part of Greenway fits this). Labor holding Greenway isn’t that surprising Labor polled about what you would expect from social composition of seat. It’s sort of seat that except in very bad year should be Labor and 2013 although bad wasn’t very bad in Sydney for Labor.
G Robinson
You’re correct except that you have not taken into account the ” Jaime Diaz” Factor, iv’e attempted to quantify.
Also iv’e provided an argument as to why this seat is transforming very rapidly into ( & for the reasons iv’e already put forward , has already become) a marginal LIB electorate.
W of S
Thanks for your ‘pick & drive”.
i do however want to qualify/ & emphasise something. Diaz was the candidate 2010.
No one in their right mind would contend that he had IMPROVED as a candidate by 2013!!!
It was just that in 2010 it was not as widely KNOWN how bad he was. Therefore it IS reasonable ,at the very least to contend, that had Rowland gone up against ,even A moderately competent opponent, she’d have fallen short., Resultantly Rowland would never have become an MP ITFP.
Hence my contention that Rowland has been nothing more than a “caretaker MP” in effect.
A 0.7% winning margin (a couple of hundred votes) , had all the epic proportions of a bee’s dick !!!!.
WRT the 2013 result, we will know for sure (what would have happened) if Keane beats her this time.
Rowland will lose this time, Watch the bookies !!!.
kme
IDK what you mean??
Dan
Mate you are SO gullible !!!. The pairing debacle had NOTHING to do with a sick child.
Don’t you think if there had been any medical evidence ,it would have been used to further bludgeon the opposition ???.( Surely you cannot be so naive !!???. ) Rather than make bald statements, of opinion presented as fact. iv’e supplied fact, (historical) context, associated relevant information, & drawn conclusions from these. To so quickly dismiss, & invalidate my legitimate, & detailed argument as BS. demonstrates a fundamental lack of appreciation ,which does you yourself no credit.
If you choose to simply refuse to accept all this – ok ( however ask yourself if it’s just cynical) OYP ). If you choose to debate, or question the facts , fine & fair enough.
This whole incident was nothing more than Rowland politicising her family in a ruthlessly, unconscionable, opportunistic, cheap, & grubby exercise, for a base political advantage.
iF Dan you want see it differently, i fervently hope your faith is rewarded by our pollies.
However i’m sure it won’t be.
I’m pleased to note that you are prepared to at least acknowledge that Rowland would have been defeated in 2013 but for Jaime. Though you still seem to be having trouble dealing with a similar reality WRT 2010!!!!
PS i’m 55 yrs old & have 2 children, one of whom is profoundly disabled, though very high functioning. My older son was highly affected by this , & ended up being nearly as challenging, sometimes hilariously so. Therefore i AM a highly successful, & accomplished parent.
More importantly IMV ( & very gratifyingly, in my son’s view) an enlightened one. His qualities, as a man, & human being will be my greatest success.
So perhaps knowing this ,you can tell me what i need to learn about parenting, or growing up !!!!.
Don’t be embarrassed i’m just shitting you !!!
cheers WD
Dan
The suburbs that are il-placed in Chifley are Shane’s Park, Marsden Park, & Girraween (though for other reasons). Probably Dean Park, & arguably King,s Park.
The Diaz debacle is still a problem and hence no candidate for the Liberal party yet. I am not up to date on all my pre selection rules and terminology but there is much talk locally about the fact that a section of the local Liberals in Greenway were disbanded before they were able to submit for pre selection and the other 2 area Diaz senior is the leader of one and has considerable sway in the other.
Allegedly Diaz senior has another son he wants nominated and the disbanded group is currently disputing the fact they aren’t able to vote in the pre selection to the Liberal higher ups.
So the best case scenario until the dispute is resolved is no Liberal candidate, the worst is another Diaz. . . So what may have been a competitive seat for the Libs is know bogged down I’d Diax disasters again.
@Sheree the Libs preselected a candidate ages ago, Yvonne Keane (see my posts above) it just hasn’t been updated here yet 😉
To clarify, I haven’t been making any updates to the candidate lists – there’s constant candidate announcements and I’m busy getting the last sixty pages posted so I’m waiting until they’re all finished before updating candidate lists.
Has anyone got any polls about Greenway? The word on the ground is that this could be one of the few seats that goes from Labor to Liberal in the Nation.
The “M7 Run” is the critical section of this seat. Apart from the booths in Kings Langley, Diaz lost every booth on a 2PP basis within a 10km distance of the M7.
This seat will also be a FPTP battle as, with the last election, the CDP matched the Greens on Primary Vote. This will be very close.
@Hawkeye no polls here yet but I am sure they will come – this seat is ripe marginal territory.
Although I did say earlier that I think that the Libs’ past troubles have probably severely diminished their chances at winning this seat, I am starting to think that they may actually have a good shot, especially with the quality of the local candidacy.
Still a real tossup in my books but one of the few seats (as you suggest Hawkeye) where Labor are vulnerable, along with Chisholm and Bruce.
Hawkeye, & W of S
I have said plenty about Greenway. Definitely in play IMV. AT this stage if i was betting it would be against Rowland.
My main reason is that she is the shadow for small business (can you believe that !!! ). This is a policy area for the ALP , that is a total shambles. It is surprising that it has not blown up spectacularly already.
The ALP clearly have NFI about small business by insisting that ones with turnover of 2 – 10 Million are not small businesses, & denying them the tax cut. Let alone the instant tax write offs, which hilariously even the Greens have already agreed to support !!!!!.
IMV this blind dogma, & stupidity, will hurt them severely in aspirational seats such as Greenway.
Surely this demonstrates yet again the total incompetence, & ridiculous ineptitude of Rowland, & her absolute unsuitability as an MP, let alone minister.
If Turnbull called in November or even February I believe this and Parramatta would have fallen. Realistically Greenway would have gone last election if they had picked a competent candidate. In the long term both these seats should drift into the Liberal benches due to rising property prices (new apartments in parra, housing estates in greenway and in both new people buying older property as the ling term residents move into retirement homes).
I would also add that reid and banks should become more liberal leaning in time as well.
Q Observer
Obviously i agree with just about all of this. However Parramatta is a different ball game. As it stands Julie Owens will have no trouble holding it.
If Parramatta is drawn south, or WNW in the next redistribution, these are strong labor areas. Conversely if it is drawn east, & or north the reverse will happen.
OTOH Greenway can only really consolidate more, & more north of the M2 (particularly population wise ). Thereby it will be increasingly liberal leaning. In fact this may already have happened sufficiently.
winediamond: sportsbet are paying $5 on a Coalition win here, you should put a few bucks down 😉
kme
At this stage it would only be a lobster !!!. I’ll let you know when i’m comfortable with a pineapple !!!
$5 for a Coalition Win in Greenway?! That is way over-valued. That is worth a good $20-$50 bet on that.
Rowland is the invisible MP. We get a lovely brochure from her 2-3 times a year showing photo ops of her “attending’ bridge announcements and other forgettable appearances. Never seen at local shopping centres (Rouse Hill Town Centre, Stanhope Village). Does not answer emails. I know and speak to hundreds of locals in the electorate, the consensus is Jamie Diaz won the seat for her last time and if a Lib candidate with the ability to utter a sentence with more than 4 words in it stood, Libs would win. Rowland does not have a local MP presence of any note. The local rag Rouse Hill Times has very few mentions of her prior to the election being called. Lately obviously there has been a lot more but the Lib candidate Keane is getting a lot as well. She is known locally and presents well. Many Lib voting friends of mine (the count is about 17 ) who actually voted for anyone but Diaz last election have indicated they will be pleased to vote for Keane (or any other Lib candidate) this time around. Multiply this through the newer residential areas along with the HUGE influx of new home owners who would be a notional Liberal leaning group and the couple of percent needed is very achievable. Her signage is prominent around the district but I notice that the Labor posters have all been re positioned to sit in front of the Libs. This is a Labor tactic that has been used in Greenway a lot. In the 2010 election, my polling booth was the Kings Langley Comm Centre. The Labor helpers had blanketed the entire front of the venue and any other space with Vote Labor, Remember Workchoice and other slogans. I fronted one of their people about the unfairness of not leaving any space for other parties and was given a snarling sarcastic answer of first in best dressed which is a typical Labor bully boy approach to an election.
Last word, Keane will win but probably only by 1%.