Wright – Australia 2013

LNP 10.2%

Incumbent MP
Scott Buchholz, since 2010.

Geography
Wright covers rural parts of South-East Queensland. Wright covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast hinterland, rural parts of the City of Logan, and the entirety of Lockyer Valley and Scenic Rim council areas. Wright covers the towns of Boonah, Beaudesert, Gatton and Laidley, and comes close to the major centres of Logan, Gold Coast, Ipswich and Toowoomba.

History
Wright was created in the 2010 election, out of parts of the seats of Forde and Blair. Both seats were Labor seats in 2007, but Wright was created as a notional Liberal National seat, and neither sitting Labor MP ran in Wright.

Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.

Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.

Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.

Kay Elson (LIB) won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election.

In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing.

Blair was created for the 1998 election, and took over Ipswich from the seat of Oxley, which at the time was held by One Nation founder Pauline Hanson. Hanson ran for Blair, topping the poll on primary votes. The ALP polled second, with Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson third. Thompson gained Nationals preferences, then defeated Hanson on Labor preferences.

Thompson won by more comfortable margins in 2001 (58.5%) and 2004 (61.2%). The redistribution cut Thompson’s margin by 5.5% before the 2007 election. A 10% swing saw the ALP’s Shayne Neumann won the seat on a second attempt.

In 2010, Wright was created with a 53.8% majority for the LNP. The LNP’s Scott Buchholz won the seat wth a 6% swing.

Candidates

  • Stephen Lynch (Family First)
  • Tony Maunder (Rise Up Australia)
  • Judith Summers (Greens)
  • David Neuendorf (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Angie Ison (Palmer United Party)
  • Matthew Wright (Independent)
  • Sharon Murakami (Labor)
  • Scott Buchholz (Liberal National)

Assessment
Wright is a safe LNP seat.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Scott BuchholzLNP40,03153.09+1.47
Andrew RamsayALP20,94627.78-10.74
Anna BridleGRN9,01011.95+6.99
Jeremy FredericksFF2,9233.88+1.78
Ken DegenIND2,4973.31+3.31

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Scott BuchholzLNP45,35860.15+6.36
Andrew RamsayALP30,04939.85-6.36

 

Polling places in Wright at the 2010 federal election. Gold Coast in yellow, Lockyer Valley in orange, Logan in green, Scenic Rim in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Wright at the 2010 federal election. Gold Coast in yellow, Lockyer Valley in orange, Logan in green, Scenic Rim in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Wright covers parts of four local government areas, and polling places have been divided into these four areas.

Wright covers all of the mostly-rural Scenic Rim and Lockyer Valley council areas, and the rural hinterlands of the cities of Logan and Gold Coast.

The LNP won a majority in all four areas. The LNP won a slim 52.1% in Logan, and larger majorities varying from 61.9% to 64.1% in the other three areas.

The Greens polled from 12% to 14% in three areas, and 8.4% in Lockyer Valley.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Scenic Rim12.2062.4417,62123.37
Logan13.4252.1315,49220.54
Lockyer Valley8.3561.9215,02619.93
Gold Coast13.5164.089,28412.31
Other votes12.6461.3217,98423.85
Two-party-preferred votes in Wright at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Wright at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Wright at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Wright at the 2010 federal election.

7 COMMENTS

  1. Angie Ison will contest this seat for the United Australia Party. Will be a very safe LNP seat after the federal election, Expect Katter’s party to poll better in Wright than other seats as they did in the state seats of Beaudesert and Lockyer at last years state election.

  2. I agree electionlova, KAP should do pretty well in this area, which could make this seat a LNP vs KAP race?

  3. Yeah, he ran in Lockyer for them. Came second, well ahead of Labor but nowhere near beating the LNP.

  4. I don’t disagree that Wright will certainly be KAP’s best seat in SEQ, however I doubt they’ll even come close to having a chance of winning. It will however be interesting if they can overtake the Greens in this seat.

Comments are closed.