Paterson – Australia 2013

LIB 5.3%

Incumbent MP
Bob Baldwin, since 2001. Previously Member for Paterson 1996-1998.

Geography
Paterson lies on the north coast of New South Wales immediately to the north of Newcastle. The seat covers Dungog, Forster, Port Stephens, Raymond Terrace and parts of Maitland.

History
A seat called Paterson in the northeastern Hunter was first created in 1949 and won by Allen Fairhall of the Liberal Party, who served as a minister in the Menzies, Holt and Gorton governments before retirement in 1969. He was succeeded by Frank O’Keefe of the Country Party, who held the seat until 1984, when it was abolished in the redistribution.

The seat was recreated in 1993, when it was won by Labor’s Bob Horne. In 1996 he was defeated by Bob Baldwin of the Liberal Party. Over the next two elections, the ‘two Bobs’ successively defeated each other, with Horne winning in 1998 and Baldwin in 2001. Horne retired after his 2001 defeat and Baldwin was re-elected in 2004, 2007 and 2010.

Candidates

  • Anna Balfour (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Jayson Packett (Palmer United Party)
  • Peter Davis (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Bob Holz (Rise Up Australia)
  • John Brown (Greens)
  • Bay Marshall (Labor)
  • Bob Baldwin (Liberal)

Assessment
Paterson is a marginal seat, but should be comfortably retained by the Liberal Party.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bob BaldwinLIB42,26251.30+4.73
Jim ArnemanALP31,52238.26-4.69
Jan DavisGRN4,9365.99+0.72
Kevin LeayrON1,0441.27+0.32
Anna BalfourCDP8701.06-0.15
Josef WiedenhornIND6990.85+0.85
Veronica LambertFF6740.82+0.16
Paul HennellyIND3790.46+0.46

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bob BaldwinLIB45,58255.33+4.75
Jim ArnemanALP36,80444.67-4.75
Polling places in Paterson at the 2010 federal election. Dungog in yellow, East Maitland in blue, Great Lakes in green, Port Stephens in red, Raymond Terrace in purple. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Paterson at the 2010 federal election. Dungog in yellow, East Maitland in blue, Great Lakes in green, Port Stephens in red, Raymond Terrace in purple. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Dungog local government area have been grouped together. Polling places close to the Port Stephens body of water, including areas in both Great Lakes and Port Stephens council areas, have been grouped together as “Port Stephens”.

The remainder of Great Lakes council area have been grouped together, including the town of Forster. Booths in the south-west have been split between East Maitland and Raymond Terrace.

The Liberal Party won a majority in three areas, varying from 54.9% in Port Stephens to 60.4% in the Great Lakes area. The ALP won a 51.1% majority in the East Maitland area. The two parties tied at 50% each in the Raymond Terrace area.

Voter groupGRN %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Port Stephens5.2454.8617,27720.97
Great Lakes6.3860.4213,71516.65
East Maitland7.3048.8813,30416.15
Raymond Terrace4.4950.0012,31014.94
Dungog7.3659.894,6775.68
Other votes6.1058.5621,10325.61
Two-party-preferred votes in Paterson at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Paterson at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in parts of Paterson around Port Stephens at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in parts of Paterson around Port Stephens at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in parts of Paterson near Maitland and Raymond Terrace at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in parts of Paterson near Maitland and Raymond Terrace at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Forster at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Forster at the 2010 federal election.

2 COMMENTS

  1. Labor should have won Paterson in 1972 & 1974 but unfortunately their candidate the popular mayor of Maitland was Noel Unicomb & thus fell victim to the donkey vote. In 1993 Horne was recruited by Labor due to his local profile he had I think run as independent at an earlier election & not preferenced to Labor.

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