Longman – Australia 2013

LNP 1.9%

Incumbent MP
Wyatt Roy, since 2010.

Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.

History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.

Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.

In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives.

Candidates

  • Wyatt Roy (Liberal National)
  • Brad Kennedy (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Clem Van Der Weegen (Palmer United Party)
  • Caleb Wells (Independent)
  • Michael Caisley (Labor)
  • Will Smith (Family First)
  • Ayla Goeytes (Sex Party)
  • Helen Fairweather (Greens)

Assessment
Longman is a very marginal seat, but Roy should benefit from a new personal vote, and in Queensland the LNP should gain ground. Wyatt Roy should increase his margin.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Wyatt RoyLNP33,01143.75-1.17
Jon SullivanALP28,39637.64-8.04
Rod BlairGRN6,8789.12+4.64
Claire McErlaneFF3,2064.25+2.46
John ReeceIND1,0421.38+1.38
Bob FoxIND8721.16+1.16
Michael von BoeckelIND8561.13+1.13
Joshua van VeenLDP6710.89+0.51
Andrew JacksonDLP5180.69+0.69

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Wyatt RoyLNP39,17351.92+3.79
Jon SullivanALP36,27748.08-3.79
Polling places in Longman at the 2010 federal election. Burpengary in orange, Caboolture/Morayfield in blue, Pumicestone in red, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Longman at the 2010 federal election. Burpengary in orange, Caboolture/Morayfield in blue, Pumicestone in red, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone.

Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture/Morayfield and Burpengary.

The LNP won a large 57-58% majority in Pumicestone and the West. Roy won a narrow 50.8% in Burpengary, while the ALP won a 52.4% in Caboolture/Morayfield.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Caboolture/Morayfield9.6647.6020,00626.52
Burpengary10.4250.7718,30524.26
Pumicestone7.1557.2813,40617.77
West9.2657.825,9697.91
Other votes8.5951.9517,76423.54
Two-party-preferred votes in Longman at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Longman at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Longman at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Longman at the 2010 federal election.

75 COMMENTS

  1. Roy was beatable ….. but where has Caisley BEEN ?
    Where is the campaign ?
    There are Roy signs from arsehole to breakfast time and his pic is in every local paper on every second page.
    Has the ALP no idea how to run a campaign in a seat with such a skinny margin ?
    Is it the national campaign people or the locals who are hopeless ?

  2. For that matter, I’ve had probably 3 times as much unsolicited mail, phone or Email contact from the LNP.
    And Labor’s failure, nationally, to effectively pitch their many genuine achievements whilst in government – education, health, social justice, the NBN, infrastructure, Disability insurance etc etc.
    Sure, they are constantly mentioned – but unconvincingly.Ineffectively.

    And let’s not dwell on Rudd’s abysmal performance in debate #1.
    Let alone the Beattie Blunder and other similar faux pas.

    Unless they pick up their CAMPAIGN-game very dramatically in the days to come, they are gone for all money.
    But it need not be so.
    If they lose, in my opinion it will be because of an amateurish campaign NOT because of policy flaws or even a lack of a plausible story to tell the electorate.

  3. Coalition extends its lead according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Longman shows support for Labor eases from $4.00 to $4.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.18 to $1.16.

  4. Feel free to donate to Michael Caisley’s campaign, Keith. All donations go to funding newsletters and the like.

  5. Keith is right. Wyatt Roy’s image is up in virtually every street.

    Caisley has no presence.

    The fact that Kevin Rudd deigned to leave his own stamping ground and visit Burpengary means that ALP must think they have a fighting chance.

    KAP are running Brad Kennedy. He has some corflutes up but not many. Council has restricted number of corflutes but this seems to have little impact on Roy.

    Roy and all other LNP signage shows LNP in white small white lettering. Like the ALP they seem to be ashamed of their party name. IN LNP ‘s case it is no doubt due to being ashamed to be associated with ALP’s greatest asset Premier Campbell NEwman. NEwman will drive more votes to ALP than all endorsed ALP Candidates will draw.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

    Andrew Jackson

  6. Andrew, I do feel compelled to point out that the Greens also have a candidate in Longman – me! Im not a betting woman, so what are the odds for the Greens? I did send an email to the tallyroom to notify them of my candidacy, but they don’t appear to have acknowledged it on this website as yet. So in order to take matters into my own hands, I think I need to engage in some shameless self promotion! My official website is at http://candidates.greens.org.au/Longman, facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Greens.Fairweather and twitter handle: @hfairweather.

  7. Slight encouragement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Longman shows support for Labor tightens from $4.50 to $4.00 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.16 to $1.20.

  8. With great respect, Chris – and you are the best councillor we ever had – don’t you reckon it’s a bit late to be soliciting funds for basics like signage ?
    Are you saying that the poor local candidate still has his begging bowl out now ?
    Surely, if they hope to govern and manage a national budget, this sort of stuff should have been sorted LONG ago …. or why bother ?

    I am in no financial position to pour money into a cause which has been lost because the Party could not organize a chook raffle.
    And – I would be out there doing pre-polls and such if I were physically able.
    But I have made that offer before and been ignored.

    For what it’s worth, I live in hope and will hoist my flag …. Greens first, Labor second … LNP last.

    BTW … I will swap you one A-frame, one coreflute, a coupla T-shirts and a cap …. for my wife’s grand-mother’s (green) ‘director’s chair’.

  9. Another blow to Labor according to Centrebet.

    Curently, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor slips from $3.60 to $4.25 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.25 to $1.18.

  10. Surge of support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Longman shows support for Labor eases from $4.00 to $6.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.20 to $1.10.

  11. In reply to Keith, you’re right – Wyatt is everywhere, on the bloody posters!!! Everyday for the last week I have Michael Caisley – in person – doing roadside appearances in and around Bribie Island/Ningi. Plenty of people have been stopping and chatting with him. The only time I have ever seen Wyatt in person was outside the school gates on 2010 election morning.

    I think most people remember that Jon Sullivan lost his seat, Wyatt didn’t win it, after his comments at the community meeting in 2010.

    As a Bribie resident I wish Michael good luck and hope that he becomes the next member for Longman.

  12. No doubt along with a zillion others, I just received an Email from Wyatt Roy headed “Great News for Local Anglers”.

    In amongst the ‘great news’ ?
    • SUSPEND the Management Plans for Marine Protected Areas
    • “streamline” audits under the Food Safety and Export Certification
    and this pearler
    “Australia’s recreational and commercial fishers are dedicated to sustainability.”

    Newsflash, Wyatt … Marine Protected Areas have proven successful worldwide.
    Streamline ‘audits’ to REDUCE current protections for consumers ? Great idea, mate.
    And ….. you really believe that commercial fishers are ‘dedicated to sustainability’ ? No way. Most are after the quick quid – they will take as much as they can whenever they can.

    BTW, loved your pic standing beside a person who told all manner of untruths whilst soliciting funds from local non-profit groups to fund his protest against quite reasonable controls within Pumicestone Passage Marine Park.

  13. I voted at the prepoll booth in Rdclifef.

    The Red Tape Bound AEC mnanaged to have abllot papers for every division in Australia. BUt teh highly efficient LNP & ALP did \not have the HTV which was on tehir web sites. THe LNP booth captain capped if off by not knowing that the adjoining electorate was “Longman” So much for the effectiveness of their campaigning.

    He then capped it off by spreading false information about how Katter’s PReferences were being distributed.

    We certainly need a choice otehr than a choice between meglomaniacs.

    Andrew Jackson

  14. It just gets more and more depressing. As a keen diver, I for one will be most saddened by the Libs scrapping marine environmental protections. The misinformation by various recreational fishing groups has been one of the many small-scale farces of the past year.

  15. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor drifts from $4.25 to $5.25 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.18 to $1.12.

  16. Lurch, I don’t have an account with any of the agencies betting on the election outcome (and it’s not a track I would like to go down).
    BUT, I wouldn’t mind a modest wager on Labor in Longman at $5.25 !

    Did you watch Rudd on Q&A tonight ?

  17. Keith – Unfortunately I did not see K Rudd on Q&A last night?

    Another surge of support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Longman shows support for Labor crashes from $6.00 to $7.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.10 to $1.04.

  18. Yes …. and the Roosters were $1.05 to beat the Titans @ $11.00.
    Result ? Titans 30 def Roosters 22.

    And that in a ‘two horse race’ without the complication of preferences etc.

    $7.50 ? Gimme some !

  19. No idea about any “ALP line”, DB. Just a response to Lurch’s constant quoting of odds.

    If you are a confident LNP supporter however, perhaps you would like to give me $750 to $100 about the ALP ?

  20. Keith, I misunderstood. But I’d suggest the ALP are deserving of pretty long odds and I woudn’t compare it to an NRL round where the result didn’t really matter much. Whether $7.50 is fair, well, I personally think it is a bit too long even though I think they are going to get flogged.

  21. DB – while the result of the election is more important, the punters aren’t betting based on the importance of the event. And the point Keith is making is that upsets happen – the favourite ends up losing, despite pretty much everyone expecting them to win easily.

    I also can’t help but notice that you decided to assert that it’s “Australia” that can’t afford to lose, as though Australia loses if Labor wins. That sort of partisanship isn’t really very becoming (it’s no more becoming from you than from Labor in their attack against Abbott).

  22. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor slips from $5.25 to $6.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.12 to $1.10.

  23. Gap continues to widen between the major parties according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor eases from $6.00 to $8.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.10 to $1.05.

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