Today’s Courier Mail carries a poll by Galaxy, giving both the ALP and LNP 50% of the two-party-preferred, with the LNP leading on 43% of the primary vote, with the ALP on 42%. The Courier Mail makes an interesting comparison with the election fourteen years ago:
While the result will buoy the LNP, it will also help Labor talk Queenslanders out of lodging a protest vote given there is widespread belief Ms Bligh would be returned easily, similar to the situation faced by Wayne Goss in 1995. Ms Bligh said the poll showed the election was a real contest and neither side could claim underdog status.
“This is an election that will go down to the wire,” she said.
The poll of 800 voters across Queensland, taken on Tuesday and Wednesday night, found 64 per cent of voters believed Labor would win the election.
The majority of voters believed the LNP, which was only formed in July last year, was ready to govern, however 11 per cent of their own voters were unconvinced.
As has been pointed out a number of times, the LNP need more than 50% of the two-party-preferred vote to win. However, it does demonstrate that this isn’t a foregone conclusion, and will probably kick the ALP out of any complacency.