Final Queensland state redistribution – publication day

6:41 – I am going to wrap up the liveblog here. Please let me know if you see any problems, but I think everything works.

These changes were relatively minor compared to the draft in March 2026. While the map overall makes things a little bit better for the LNP, that effect has not changed in today’s announcement.

Now that the boundaries have been decided, I can start work on my 2028 Queensland election guide, so I’ll be starting on that later this week.

6:40 – Here are my estimates of primary votes.

6:36 – Most margins are very similar to the draft boundaries. Labor’s margin has increased by 1.7% in Woodridge, and dropped by 2.6% in Waterford, but both seats remain very safe on paper.

The LNP needs to lose six seats to lose their majority (compared to the 2024 election). On the old boundaries, a swing of 1.9% would see the LNP lose their majority.

The LNP has picked up two extra seats on both the draft and final boundaries. On the draft boundaries, a 2.9% swing would see the LNP lose enough seats to lose their majority. On the final boundaries, a 2.8% swing would be enough.

A uniform swing of 3.5% is needed for Labor to gain a majority under either set of boundaries (or the 2024 boundaries).

The KAP seat of Hill is abolished, as well as the Labor seat of Toohey. They are replaced by the Labor seat of Greenbank and the LNP seat of Caboolture. In addition, the Labor seat of Gaven was redrawn into an LNP seat. So this produces a net gain of two seats for the LNP, a net loss of one for Labor, and a net loss of one for Katter’s Australian Party.

6:23 – Here are my estimates of margins.

Margin estimates

4:58 – Sorry I’m still working through calculating the 2CP in complex seats where the 2CP in different parts of the seat in 2024 didn’t match. Will need to wait until a bit later this evening.

3:19 – 1.8% of electors have been moved between the draft boundaries published in March and the final boundaries published today.

24 of the new seats have gained voters from another seat. Most of them are relatively small changes.

The biggest changes are on the southern edge of Brisbane. Waterford and Woodridge have each gained about 15-20,000 voters each (mostly from each other), while Ipswich West, Sandgate and Logan have all gained over 3,000 voters.

3:09 – The Commission has listed 17 seats as having a new name, with two other seats abolished and two created. However there are two examples where I think they have identified the wrong seat as being linked. There were three examples on the draft boundaries, but only two on the final version.

• Greenbank is the new seat, not Springfield. The old seat of Jordan has transferred much more substantially to Springfield than Greenbank.
• Toohey was abolished, not Stretton. The new seat of Eight Mile Plains overlaps substantially more with Stretton.

There was an issue with Waterford and Woodridge, but that seems to have been resolved.

If you take the ECQ’s word for which seats are linked, then 14.9% of electors have been moved. This number drops to 14.3% with my corrections. On the draft boundaries, this number was 14.4%. So the number of electors being moved has dropped just very slightly.

2:51 – This map allows you to compare the final boundaries to the old boundaries, but you can also toggle to show the draft boundaries. The changes between the draft and final boundaries look relatively minor at a first glance.

2:35 – I have now found the GeoJSON files, so I will probably go quiet while I put together a digital map and calculate a bunch of figures, but before I do it’s worth mentioning that the commission’s boundaries leave five seats with projected enrolment (as of 2032) more than 10% above the statewide average. These five seats are Caloundra, Coomera, Ipswich West, Morayfield and Redbank. Five seats were also above 10% on the draft, and four of them are the same. The Commission explains this as being due to those areas having very high enrolment growth, making it impossible to draw boundaries that meet both the current and projected quota.

2:20 – You can see maps on this ECQ page. Unfortunately they haven’t published digital boundary files which I’ll need before I can do my calculations.

2:15 – On further examination, this is not correct. Two seats have been restored back to their original names (Coomera and Waterford) and 37 seats have undergone boundary changes.

2:10 – The report has been published, here. It appears on first glance that the Commission has made no further changes beyond the changes in the proposed redistribution.

1:30 – The Electoral Commission of Queensland has reported that it will be publishing the final version of the Queensland state redistribution at some point this afternoon. I will post on here as soon as we have news, and will look to estimate the margins as soon as possible.

In the meantime you can read my analysis of the draft boundaries from March.

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