7:38 – We’ve just had the local pre-poll report in Rosevears, and Palmer now leads Labor 41.3% to 25.1%. It looks a bit more achievable for Labor to catch up, but Palmer looks like the favourite. Still waiting for two more election-day booths.
7:34 – With five booths reporting, Marsh (LIB) is on 32.9% in Nepean. Hutchison (IND) is on 25.1%, and Hercus (ON) is on 22.1%. It’s probably worth noting that if Hutchison and Hercus are close on primary votes, Hutchison would likely pull ahead with almost 13% sitting with the Greens, compared to 1.9% with other right-wing parties (Sustainable Australia’s 1.6% is probably a wash).
7:25 – Twelve out of sixteen election day booths have reported in Rosevears, and Labor has pulled out in front of Susan Monson. So have the Greens in fact. Labor is on 23%, with the Greens on 17.8% and Monson on 16.9%. Palmer is on 42.4%, up 1.8%.
7:22 – The first three booths have reported in Nepean, and in raw figures the Liberals lead on 31.6%, followed by independent Tracee Hutchison on 23.9% and One Nation on 22.6%, with the Greens on 14.1%. That is a 13.4% swing against the Liberals, but we don’t have matched swings for Hutchison or One Nation, neither of whom ran in 2022.
On those numbers, I suspect the Liberals would defeat either rival. It is very helpful to the party that their loss of support has split in two directions – if it was all one way or the other they’d be losing.
7:07 – Six booths have reported in Rosevears. Jo Palmer has a swing of 1.1% against her, while Monson leads Labor 22.7-21.2.
7:05 – I want to emphasise generally that we don’t have any 2CP figures in Tasmania, and won’t have any – they just do primary counts then a full distribution once all votes are counted. On a primary vote basis, there are issues with calculating primary vote swings because the candidate field has changed. In Huon in 2022, Dean Harriss polled 23.7% and the Liberal Party polled 22.7%. This time there is no Liberal candidate, so you’d expect Harriss to pick up a lot of that Liberal vote (as well as the fact that he’s an incumbent). So a swing of about 4% isn’t very impressive. Meanwhile on the left, the Labor+Greens vote is down from about 46% to 30%, but that is a lot of preferences for Glade-Wright to benefit from.
In Rosevears, independent candidate Janie Finlay did well in 2020, polling 30% of the primary vote and narrowly losing. She isn’t running this time, as she is now a Labor lower house MP. It is probably not fair to expect Labor to pick up all of her vote, and right now it looks like it’s scattered amongst the three non-Liberal candidates.
7:02 – With seven booths reporting in Huon, Dean Harriss leads Clare Glade-Wright 34.1% to 25.6%. There is another 29.9% with Labor and the Greens, and 10.4% with two other independents. Glade-Wright will likely do better on preferences but it’s worth noting that Harriss is polling 4.3% better than his 2022 vote. Although in 2022, there was 22.7% sitting with the Liberal candidate, so that’s probably not a great sign for Harriss.
6:57 – Susan Monson is now narrowly ahead of Labor, 22.4% to 22.2%, and my model projects that this gap will widen slightly.
6:57 – We now have four booths in Rosevears, and the Liberal vote is now down 0.5%. I have also modified my analysis to credit Janie Finlay’s 2020 independent vote to Labor, since there is no equivalent this time and she’s now a Labor MHA. Upon this calculation, there is a 22.4% swing to Susan Monson, a 7.6% swing to the Greens, and a 17.6% swing away from Labor. So Finlay’s vote has scattered amongst three candidates, not all gone to Labor.
6:52 – We now have three booths in Rosevears and the primary vote swing to Palmer (LIB) is now 1.5%.
6:51 – The fifth booth, Glen Huon, is still relatively small, but they are getting bigger, and this is a good one for Harriss, with a 9% swing. This means he is now up 1.7% overall, and just narrowly behind Glade-Wright. This race looks very competitive but Glade-Wright is clearly Harriss’ main rival.
6:47 – Four booths in now in Huon, and Harriss is down 1.1%, with Glade-Wright leading 33.6-22.0.
6:45 – Two small booths in Rosevears have reported. Liberal MLC Jo Palmer is up 2% to 43%. The other vote is split roughly three ways – Labor on 22.6%, independent Susan Monson on 18.2%, and the Greens on 16.3%. Everyone has a swing towards them, because there was a big vote for independents in 2020 who aren’t running now. To be honest it looks like a roughly status quo result so far.
6:42 – Three small booths have reported in Huon. Independent Clare Glade-Wright is leading with 36.5%, with incumbent conservative independent Dean Harris on 24.2%, Greens on 16.5% and Labor on 14.6%. This is a slight 0.9% swing to Harriss compared to last time. Labor and the Greens are both down – Labor down 7.8%, and Greens down 10.1%. Glade-Wright is currently looking very viable and is Harriss’ main challenger. But they are just three small booths.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for some elections being held today in Victoria and Tasmania, and I’ll be tracking the results tonight on this live blog.
In the Victorian state seat of Nepean, a by-election will choose a new member of parliament to serve until the November state election, following the resignation of Liberal MP Sam Groth. This seat was held by Groth by a 6.2% margin. Labor is not contesting the seat but the Liberal Party faces a challenge from One Nation, independent Tracee Hutchison, or both.
In Tasmania, voters are electing two members of the Legislative Council, in the seats of Huon (which covers rural areas to the south-west of Hobart) and Rosevears (which covers rural and suburban areas to the north-west of Launceston). Tasmania’s MLCs serve six-year terms, with 2-3 seats up for election each year over a six-year cycle.
In both seats, conservative MLCs are defending seats they last won by narrow margins.
Labor won Huon at the last regular election in 2020, but that MP resigned within two years, and the 2022 by-election was won by conservative independent Dean Harriss, winning by a 2.5% margin over Labor. Labor and the Greens are challenging Harriss this time, alongside three other candidates.
Liberal MLC Jo Palmer narrowly won Rosevears by a 0.6% margin over independent Janie Finlay, who later became a Labor lower house MP. Three of the four candidates in Rosevears are Labor, Liberal and the Greens. Independents have traditionally played a big role in Tasmanian Legislative Council elections, but Rosevears is as close as they get to a straight Labor-Liberal contest.
Ben don’t mean Liberal not Labor?
Ignore that comment
i have heard VCE has determined they predict it will be a LIB V Teal 2CP. Lets see if this infact correct
Interesting that the Greens vote has held up so well in Rosevears but is largely stagnant in Huon, obviously pretty different fields of candidates but it does continue the trend of the Greens getting much better swings in North Tasmania than South Tasmania
Blairgowrie which is a wealthy area reported. Libs at 33% Teal 24% ONP 20%. I expect Teal to do worse around Rosebud, etc
Problem for One Nation is that the Greens are sitting at 14% of the vote as well; unless they manage to literally get over the Libs it’s likely they’d be eliminated behind Hutchinson on Greens preferences
Rye is now reporting Libs only at 29% at that booth
Libs are doing below 30% at the poorer booths such as Dromana.
The more friendly Liberals areas appear to have held its the Rosebud and rural area where the One Nation should make ground.