For today’s booth map we’re staying in Melbourne but heading slightly south-east, to look at the two incumbent teal MPs in Melbourne: Zoe Daniel’s seat of Goldstein and Monique Ryan’s seat of Kooyong. Daniel was defeated in Goldstein, while Ryan narrowly held on in Kooyong.
First a note about swings – the AEC’s estimated 2CP swings for these seats were not valid, so I generated my own swing data, basically by applying preference flows to the primary votes. This may make the swings a bit rubbery in the bits added to the two seats – Kooyong gained the areas at the southern end of the seat on the south side of the creek (and it looks very distinct on the map) while Goldstein expanded slightly to the east.
Ryan won most of the election day booths in her seat, and reaches a peak of over 70% around Hawthorn. It’s also notable that most of the Liberal Party’s strongest areas are in areas added in the redistribution. That’s encouraging for Ryan, as she can work on strengthening her hold on those.
In contrast, while Tim Wilson undoubtedly relied on the large share of the electorate voting early to win, he also has a core part of the electorate where he won the election day vote, in the area around Brighton.
In Kooyong I estimate that booths that swung to Ryan are mixed with those that swung to Hamer, but in Goldstein almost all of the seat swung to Wilson – only in the areas added from the redistribution did Daniel improve on my estimate of her support (which was fictional, as she didn’t stand there in 2022).
@Ben Raue can we see teal Sydney next?
@Ben
Can we also do Macnamara as it was a 3 cornered contest?
Can you predict more in Longman? The count has changed somewhat with Labour now 196 behind.
@Ben: These maps prove my point that Hawthorn is Ryan’s stronghold, while Toorak, Malvern, and Armadale are both socially and ethically conservative.
Your maps are excellent, but I am still waiting for one of Fraser and Maribyrnong.
Idk why but in my mind I always thought these two electorates were neighbouring.
@WL. These two electorates have never neighbored each other. Goldstein is a lot further south. Kooyong has been extended further south, however Caulfield North acts as a buffer between the two electorates.
Maybe because Higgins (which sat between them) was the Teal seat that never was.
The greater swing in Caufield South toward Wilson, where there is the greatest Jewish concentration, gives some credence to the theory that Wilson got his swing back among Jewish voters with regard to Israel/Gaza.
Hey mate, Ben are you just making these numbers up in your head??
Take Goldstein Booth 57 aka Caulfield South Central , you have it as blue for 2CP which I assume mean libs, but surprise, surprise what does the **actual** AEC tallyroom show as of May 15:
DANIEL, Zoe Independent 59.69
WILSON, Tim Liberal 40.31
So where exactly did you get your numbers from???
Actually my apologies Ben, seems I got misread the name that it was Caulfield Primary not Caulfield **South** Primary