Australia’s states often swing in different ways, with trends noticeable at the state level rather than just at the state or regional level. For this reason, I usually choose to measure 2PP results against the state result, rather than the national result.
At the 2010 federal election, the Coalition gained swings in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but Labor actually gained ground in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.
It’s well known that Labor gained a much larger swing in Western Australia in 2022 – that swing was enough to push the government into a House majority and produced a clear progressive majority in the Senate.
This post isn’t as long or detailed as some of my others, but I wanted to touch on this angle because I think it will be quite important to the outcome of the election.
State polling right now is showing quite different pictures in each state. I’m using William Bowe’s BludgerTrack averages here. We don’t usually get state polling for Tasmania or the territories.
Despite an expectation that Labor’s support in Western Australia would recede to something much closer to their historic levels of support, but that hasn’t happened. If anything Labor right now seems to be likely to gain a swing there.
Labor is also doing better in New South Wales and South Australia (+1.2% and +1.8% respectively). Labor is also up in Queensland, which is significant because the Coalition holds a lot of marginal seats in south-east Queensland as well as Leichhardt and Flynn further north. Labor did gain a swing in Queensland in 2022 but fell a long way short of the results achieved when Kevin Rudd won in 2007, and Labor didn’t gain a single seat from the LNP – indeed they lost one to the Greens.
The only exception to this trend is Victoria. Victoria has been one of Labor’s best states for some time, but William’s poll average has Labor down 2.4% in that state. The swing was looking much worse at the start of the campaign, when the national polls were generally more favourable to the Coalition. As every state has moved back to Labor, they’re tracking better in the other four mainland states, but are still down in Victoria.
I have taken a chart I made after the 2022 election and added in the expected results for 2025 based on the BludgerTrack average. Tasmania has no 2025 figure, and the 2025 figures for Victoria and New South Wales are so close to the national figure that they can’t be seen.
Labor’s current polling would produce their best ever relative result in Western Australia, and the best relative result in South Australia since the 1970s. It would slightly reduce the LNP domination in Queensland, but still worse for Labor than the 2013 and 2016 results.
Victoria has been shifting from the right to left since the 1950s, but that trend hasn’t progressed since 2010, and would be completely cancelled out based on these polling figures. I doubt that’s a permanent reversal, but I guess we’ll see. New South Wales was previously a strong Labor state, but has been basically neutral since the 1990s, and 2025 would be consistent with this trend.
The Australian does this stuff on a Quarterly basis.
There was one yesterday (page 4)
I massage these things and save them all
Yesterday’s table showed ALP gains in most states
They don’t do ACT, TAS or NT
Nuclear Power could be a sleeper issue.
Labor has campaigned against it on the issue of cost, Labor’s costings are rubbery. That’s in contrast to their original angle of 3 eyed fish.
At least some antinuclear Laborinos might suspect the Party’s position enables a quick switch to Nuclear should alternative costings emerge post election, and may hedge their bets with the antinuclear Greens?
In 2019 Victoria was the only state to improve for Labor this time it could very well be the reverse.
@Spacefish, some were due to correction votes for the same reason why they had a small positive swing in 2016.
It’s interesting to see SA and WA as Labor’s strongest states. They both have popular Labor premiers and the state Liberal parties have had issues. Perth and to a lesser extent, Adelaide, have had the highest home price rises this term (I read this in the AFR). It’s great if you are a landlord or homeowner but not so if you’re a first-home buyer or renter.
Are there any federal factors that make the Labor brand popular in SA and WA? I know that both states have strong economic and employment growth and wages growth. This is in contrast with Victoria.
I really cannot see a swing to the ALP in WA this year, although I expect them to win the 2PP. The 55% in 2022 was a historic high.
Interesting Analysis,
Since 1980 Victoria has been left-leaning with the exception of 1990 (due to state factors). 1990 was a great year for Labor in QLD in the afterglow of the 1989 change of government so a bad performance in Victoria was balanced by a great performance in QLD and explains why 1990 was one of the few occasions since 1949 when QLD was more left-leaning than the state as a whole.
The last time a party won the TPP in every single state or territory was when the Coalition under Malcolm Fraser did so in their landslide win in 1975 after the dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s Labor government. This is also the only time to date that the Coalition has won a majority of the TPP vote in the ACT.
NSW is less of a Pro-Labor state than it was as Labor has improved performance in VIC so these days it is more half-way between Right Leaning QLD and Left Leaning VIC.
SA was a Liberal leaning state between 1993-2004 this was due to the brand damage of the collapse of the State Bank. Since then SA has been a Labor leaning state
TAS was a Liberal leaning state in the 1980s due to the Franklin Dam issue and eventhough 1983 was Labor’s second best result after 1943 Labor won no seats in Tasmania then.
I have also been very curious if the change of citizenship laws in 2023 will have some impact in Queensland. It is alot easier for New Zealand visa holders to gain citizenship. I think this could be interesting x factor in SE Queensland. In a seat like Forde for example, over 8 percent of people were born in New Zealand(at the census). Bonner, Logman and Petrie are also all above 4 percent.
If there is a swing to the ALP in NSW they will increase their seat holding. However, if they were to lose Bennelong, and perhaps a couple of regional seats, they will be in at least minority government. If the LIB can’t pick up Bennelong early, they cannot form government. I think I am correct in saying the winner of the 2PP in NSW has won every election in the last 40 years, except 2010, when the coalition won more seats than Labor.