UK election open thread

365

I’ve had a request to open up a comments thread for the upcoming UK election.

I’m not planning to cover that election on this site, but if you’d like to discuss it, you can do so here.

Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!
Become a patron at Patreon!

365 COMMENTS

  1. Interestingly, under 14 years of Tory rule. The UK made impressive progress on cutting emissions. It became the first G20 to halve emissions from a 1990 baseline and today emissions are 53% lower than in 1990 while the economy has grown 80% over that time. Renewable electricity grew from 7% in 2010 to 50% now. It will be interesting if the Conservatives move to the right on climate if they are concerned about Reform UK. However, that risks not winning back blue wall or affluent inner london seats such as Kensington and Bayswater, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of Westminister and London where the results were quite close and these seats are like Wentworth or Higgins in Australia.

  2. @Nimalan the UK had a centrist coalition partner in the Liberal Democrats in 2010 who pushed for climate action and same-sex marriage legalisation. David Cameron was also quite moderate so he’s a bit like Malcolm Turnbull or Matt Kean in that he supported very socially liberal and pro-climate policies. The UK also has nuclear which is zero-emissions tech and they’re much fitter to abandon coal than Australia for economic reasons (Australia exports heaps of coal, in fact the Port of Newcastle is the largest coal port in the world).

    Also, if you’re interested, I did make some preferential voting maps for Scotland and Wales (look at the older comments). I didn’t do England because it’s too many consistencies but if you like I can do just London. Interestingly if you assume that the three major parties preferenced each other ahead of the SNP, Plaid and Alba then under my estimates the SNP would only have one seat in the House of Commons (Perth and Kinross-shire, which would be an ultra-marginal seat, probably only like 0.3% SNP TPP).

  3. @ NP
    Agree David Cameron was quite moderate and was passionate about climate. The Reason i mentioned these affluent seats in inner London is those on the right flank often say such seats should be abandoned. Tim Smith in the article below used the example of the seat of Kensington as an example but i am not sure if that is a good strategy. I do accept it is easier in the UK to reduce emissions than Australia. A map of London will be great and if you can look at those wealthy seats i mentioned and give your thoughts if they can be won back?

    https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/05/the-teals-loud-entitled-and-rich/

  4. Nimalan, I believe the strategy of abandoning ‘affluent’ seats where voters are fiscally conservative but socially progressive is quite a poor one. At best it results in a zero-sum outcome, because for the US it appears by pushing a socially conservative stance (Trumpism), the Republicans have lost support in all affluent suburban communities that used to support them quite strongly (key examples like parts of New Jersey that form part of the NYC Metropolitan area and also Orange County, California).

  5. @Nimalan I think yes they can provided they have the right leader and policies. Same as Australia. For example, in Sydney, someone like James Griffin (the state Liberal MP for Manly) could win Warringah and Kellie Sloane (the state Liberal MP for Vaucluse) could win Wentworth.

    Some seats might be gone though. For example I don’t see the Liberals regaining Higgins this time unless it sheds Prahran.

  6. Interestingly in the US areas that look like, say, Manly, vote Democrats whereas places like that in Australia and NZ vote conservative (Liberal in Australia and National in NZ). I would say some beachside parts of Cape Town are similar to the Northern Beaches of Sydney and Cape Town votes Democratic Alliance (a centre to centre-right party that is the second-largest political party in South Africa after the centre-left to left-wing ANC and currently controls Western Cape (the province that Cape Town is in) and the Cape Town City Council).

  7. Even in Florida for example Miami votes Democrat. Even though they have a Republican Mayor (Francis Suarez), he’s very much a moderate and would fit with the Liberal Party quite well. For example, while he is fiscally conservative (e.g he strongly supports lower taxes), he’s quite liberal on issues such as climate change, immigration, LGBT and multiculturalism. He criticised climate activists as alarmists but he has taken many measures to combat climate change, he’s supported LGBT pride events (he did however support the original form of the Parental Rights in Education Law (commonly known as the Don’t Say “Gay” Law) but opposed its later , he’s personally opposed to abortion but doesn’t advocate for bans on early abortion and supports exceptions to late abortion bans, and he has called for the US to allow Venezuelan refugees to live in the US (he is of Cuban origin,

  8. Even in Florida for example Miami votes Democrat. Even though they have a Republican Mayor (Francis Suarez), he’s very much a moderate and would fit with the Liberal Party quite well. For example, while he is fiscally conservative (e.g he strongly supports lower taxes), he’s quite liberal on issues such as climate change, immigration, LGBT and multiculturalism. He criticised climate activists as alarmists but he has taken many measures to combat climate change, he’s supported LGBT pride events (he did however support the original form of the Parental Rights in Education Law (commonly known as the Don’t Say “Gay” Law) but opposed its later versions), he’s personally opposed to abortion but doesn’t advocate for bans on early abortion and supports exceptions to late abortion bans, and he has called for the US to allow Venezuelan refugees to live in the US (he is of Cuban origin, and like most people in Miami his first language is Spanish).

    I may have posted this comment twice but that was an accident. Sorry.

  9. @ Yoh An
    I agree with you i am critic of this strategy as well some other places where the Republicans have lost votes in addition to the ones you mentioned include the affluent suburban communities of Long Island (Nassau County), Collar counties of Chicago, northern Virginia. Oakland County, Michigan and even suburban areas of Dallas and Houston.
    @ NP, i agree with you also if Higgins still exists i think it can be won by 2028 even if it includes Prahran and by that time maybe a LIB V GRN seat.

  10. @SCart the Miami metropolitan area (also known as Greater Miami) includes the cities of Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. It spans over the three most populous counties of Florida: Miami-Dade County, Broward County and Palm Beach County.

    Democratic nominee Charlie Crist won Broward with 57.35% of the vote. Republican nominee and Governor Ron DeSantis won Miami-Dade with 55.28% and Palm Beach with 51.21%. So if they were single-member electoral districts elected using preferential voting, Broward would be a fairly safe Democrat seat and Miami-Dade and Palm Beach would be marginal Republican seats, according to those results.

    However, 2022 was the first time since 2002 that the Republicans had won Miami-Dade in a Florida gubernatorial election, and it was the first time since 1986 that they had won Palm Beach.

  11. @ NP
    Thanks for the Map. Conservatives almost wiped out of London is a concern. Now that Labour has seats in Scotland it will be interesting if they dont bother to sandbag those wealthy inner London seats they just won and maybe it will be the Lib Dems that challenge the Conservatives.

  12. @Nimalan no worries.

    The Tories would’ve really benefitted from preferential voting in Wales and they probably would’ve got a few more seats in England (including some in the home counties which are the counties surrounding Greater London). However it benefitted them less in Scotland and it would’ve made almost no impact in London with the exception of the Tories holding Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson’s old seat).

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here