Quite a lot of counting was conducted today, with Braddon particularly proving interesting.
Any remaining doubt about the party breakdown in Franklin and Lyons has now been cleared up.
The only seats left unclear are:
- Craig Garland or Vonette Mead (Liberal) for the final seat in Braddon
- Liberal candidate Simon Wood is leading for the third Liberal seat in Bass
Bass
Rebekah Pentland locked down the JLN seat in Bass today, when her colleague Ludwig Johnson was excluded. His preferences split almost perfectly equally between the two remaining JLN candidates, leaving Pentland with a small but persistent lead. Pentland increased her lead upon the exclusion of the two ungrouped independents.
Simon Wood’s lead over Julie Sladden had slowly been chipped away, but was increased significantly when the lowest-polling Liberal candidate was excluded. It seems likely he will win, but we’ll need to wait for a bit more counting tomorrow to resolve the seat.
Braddon
Braddon remains the closest and most interesting contest.
Darren Briggs finished consolidating the Greens vote today, but hasn’t managed to pick up any preferences beyond just making up for the votes leaked out of the Greens ticket. The Greens polled 0.53 quotas of primary votes, but as of the end of counting today Briggs was on just 0.524.
Meanwhile Craig Garland (without any other candidates on his ticket to leak votes) has steadily picked up support from a primary vote of 0.41 quotas and reaching half a quota when the final Shooters candidate was knocked out.
The Shooters preferences then pushed Garland well and truly in front of Briggs – 0.58 quotas to 0.52.
So Garland will be the candidate to face off against the fourth Liberal for the final seat.
Vonette Mead has overtaken Giovanna Simpson, 0.421 quotas to 0.416. Roger Jaensch is also still on 0.835 quotas.
If Mead receives half of Simpson’s preferences, that would put her about 0.05 quotas ahead of Garland. But that is unclear.
Presumably Greens preferences will favour Garland, but many of those preferences are bound to exhaust.
Either way, that last seat remains in play.
Meanwhile the first count tomorrow will finally decide the JLN seat. Miriam Beswick has been slowly increasing her lead over James Redgrave, and it now sits at 0.032 quotas. Presumably Craig Cutts’ preferences will split roughly evenly, and will end Redgrave’s prospects, but we’ll find out tomorrow.
Clark
Clark was already clear on Wednesday night. Ella Haddad and Vica Bayley have now reached a quota, while both successful Liberal candidates, Josh Willie and Kristie Johnston are over 0.8 quotas, with Helen Burnet not far behind.
Franklin
Numerous minor candidates have been knocked out today, and the Liberal ticket is now sitting on 2.796 quotas, and the Greens are on 1.65 quotas. I can’t see the Greens winning at this point. Indeed the total quotas understates the Liberal position, since the two leading Liberals are only on about 0.84 quotas each.
There was an interesting back-and-forth as Gideon Cordover and Jade Darko exchanged the lead as the second Greens candidate, but Darko came out on top. Cordover will be excluded tomorrow morning, and some of those votes will leak to other parties.
Meg Brown was confirmed elected as the second Labor candidate today, with only two Labor candidates remaining in the count.
Lyons
Any remaining doubt about whether Labor could chase down the JLN for the final seat has been removed at this point. On primary votes, Labor was on 2.62 quotas and the JLN on 0.66. JLN steadily picked up preferences, while Labor lost a substantial amount of leakage from Rebecca White’s surplus and the exclusion of two low-ranking Labor candidates, to the point where JLN has a 0.2 quota lead.
Andrew Jenner’s lead over Troy Pfitzner for the JLN seat was also confirmed today, with the exclusion of the third JLN candidate.
If Garland gets up it will be interesting to see how Abetz and him get along after Eric got stuck into him about a 1993 assault. Refer below article:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/25/theyre-going-to-get-a-hell-of-a-shock-the-anti-politician-shaking-up-braddons-byelection
One other comment quoted in the article is from good friend of TR, Kevin Bonham:
“Looking at the socioeconomic data, Braddon as a region should be rabidly pro-Labor, but it hasn’t been,” Tasmanian electorate analyst Kevin Bonham says.
I would say that the demographics make Braddon rabidly pro-National but due to the history of the liberals in Tasmania they are really nationals branded as liberals – particularly outside of Hobart. For example, liberal premier Robin Grey openly supported the Joh for PM push.
If Garland gets up can’t see the Government being particularly stable or long living. And how long for one of the JLN people to go their own way…….
Good luck Tasmania.
Best
Pollster
And no love lost the other way:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/liberal-and-labor-have-garland-as-main-target-in-braddon/10014634
Senator Abetz was asked if he was focusing on the assault charge because the Liberals were worried about Mr Garland’s preferences.
Mr Abetz said he was highlighting it because fitness for public office required a “certain degree of integrity”.
But Mr Garland thinks the Liberals are concerned.
“They’re clutching at straws. Obviously, they’re worried about me,” he said.
“They’ve got a minority view, they want to rule — they’re an elitist, self-entitled pack of pricks.”
this is as i predicted even though labor could cobble a broad coalition it stated the very next adsy they couldnt form govt obviously they and the greesn still hate each other
Pollster,
My theory for a while has been that a lot of the outer suburban seats in Syd/Melb/Bris/poss. Perth? are prime targets for the Nats, but for historical and practical reasons (Labor used to represent them, Nat/Lib regional/urban deal) they are unable to try.