Mulgrave by-election live


9:50 – So we don’t really have a valid 2CP between Labor and Liberal, so it’s a bit hard to say what’s going on. But while Labor at the moment is on track for a primary vote swing of 10-11%, the Liberal vote is only up maybe 4%, and Cook’s vote is only up a tiny bit.

9:07 – Ian Cook is pretty clearly in third placebehind the Liberal and Labor candidates, so the 2CP will need to change.

8:39 – While Labor’s primary vote is under 40%, but they are still over 56% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, so it looks likely that they’ll win.

8:11 – Labor’s primary vote is still under 40%. I haven’t done a matched swing analysis but so far the swing looks quite big.

7:44 – We have primary votes from Northvale – it looks like 35% for Labor, down from 49% at the 2022 election.

7:37 – We have a small batch of postal and early votes, and Labor is leading the primary vote with 41.3%. The Liberal candidate is on 27% and Ian Cook is on 17%.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in Victorian state by-election for the seat of Mulgrave. I’ll be back a bit later when results start to come in, but for now you can read my profile of the by-election.

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  1. Not certain the final race will be ALP vs Cook. I believe a number of LNP votes may have been preferencing ALP over Cook.

    Can’t otherwise explain the 2PP diverging so much from ALP + GRN + VS versus the other seven.

  2. Labor’s vote of 56% two candidate preferred does indeed seem strong enough to win, but it assumes that Ian Cook will finish second; as at right now (8.54pm), Ian Cook is at 18.1% and the Liberal candidate is 5% ahead of that at 23.1%. Do we have evidence that the preference flow Labor versus Liberal will be similar to the preference flow Labor versus Cook?

  3. With Cook in 3rd place on the ballot and therefore likely to profit from any ‘donkey vote’, and with Cook on 19.3% versus Liberal 21.6% with most of the Primary votes counted, it is still definitely possible that Cook will be ahead of the Liberal candidates after the distribution of the 19% of votes for various minor parties and candidates. With Labor on 40% and the other votes spread so widely, it’s hard to see Labor not winning.

  4. Not a bad showing for the government with the swing was not a surprise as Daniel Andrews definitely had a large personal vote.

  5. Looking to be a 7 to 8% swing which is less than the tipping point on the pendulum for a Liberal/National majority, and this is with a departing premier who was a very long term incumbent against a federally dragged ALP.

    The left of Labor parties would be very happy with their Springvale and Noble Park and after preferences the (…4CP?) swing to Greens will be quite substantial. As other commenters here have pointed out, the Dandenong area can’t be easily lumped in with other (on the surface) demographically similar areas in the Northern and Western suburbs. Will be interested to see what the federal redistribution spits out in this region.

  6. I’m not 100% sure I’m reading it right, but it appears from the final distribution that Cook has indeed finished second?!

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