Podcast #104: New Zealand election preview


Ben is joined by James Mulrennan from The Overhang. We preview next weekend’s New Zealand national election, touching on the electoral system, the state of the parties and the polls, and the potential shape of the next government.

I have prepared an interactive map showing New Zealand’s 72 electorates. You can click on each one to see the top three candidates on the electorate vote and the top four parties on the party vote. You can toggle between the 65 general seats and the 7 Māori seats.

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  1. I’m not sure which live coverage you’re talking about. I’ll be on ABC Radio covering the referendum for most of the night. It will be on Radio National, News Radio and Local Radio.

  2. Historically since 1990, NZ governments have been elected for 3 terms, However history goes against Labour simply because no Prime Minister has won back to back elections after succeeding another person in their party since Peter Fraser in the 1940’s. every single time a PM has replaced someone in their party, they went down to defeat, here are all the occasions…

    1957: National PM Keith Holyoake lost to Labour after succeeding Sidney Holland as PM.
    1972: National PM Jack Marshall lost to Labour after succeeding Keith Holyoake as PM.
    1975: ”Citizens For Rowling” Bill Rowling lost to National in a landslide after succeeding the deceased Norman kirk
    1990: Mike Moore succeeded 2 Labour prime ministers and failed to keep his party in power in 1990.
    1999: Jenny Shipley succeeded Jim Bolger and yet again failed to end this streak of losing when a new PM takes over.
    2017: You could say it sort of ended here because National did really well in this election and only failed to form government because NZ first decided to back the 2nd place finisher Labour party. However Bill English ceased to be prime minister.
    2023: ?

    This cycle will likely repeat again. and October 14th will likely be a bad night for the left in general also because of the voice referendum here in Australia going down to defeat. Sky News will put a spin on this as a huge win for the right down under.

  3. This election was held on the same day as the Voice referendum, 93 days ago from today. Next week it will have been 100 days since the National-ACT-NZ First coalition of Christopher Luxon, David Seymour and Winston Peters won a landslide victory over the incumbent Labour government of Chris Hipkins (who replaced Jacinda Ardern), the first majority government in the MMP era and a government supported by the Greens. Labour lost in the worst ever defeat of a sitting New Zealand government since the MMP system was introduced in 1996.

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