Last week I wrote about the growing numbers of people casting a pre-poll vote over the last few Victorian elections. For this blog post, I’m looking at how the people who use different voting methods actually vote – for which party, and whether they vote below the line in the upper house.
I would prefer to look at the two-party-preferred vote as a simplified metric which captures both Labor and Coalition support in a single number, but unfortunately I don’t have 2PP booth-level data for every seat in Victoria. So instead I have looked at the primary vote for Labor and the Coalition.
In short, the Coalition does best on the postal vote and worst on the absent vote. Labor does best on the ordinary vote (election day local votes) and worst on postal votes. Labor has improved their position on pre-poll and absent votes over the last decade.
Here’s the Labor chart:
The gap between the Labor primary vote on postal votes and ordinary votes has widened from just 1.3% in 2010 to 5.8% in 2018. The growth in the Labor vote has been strongest on the early vote (otherwise called pre-poll) and absent votes.
The Coalition chart is clearer.
As the pre-poll vote has grown, it has become relatively less strong for the Coalition.
I also looked at the Greens - they do much better on the absent vote, with a similar level of support for the three other main vote types.
Finally, I wanted to look at the below-the-line rate. As I understand it, we will only get ordinary vote results for the upper house on the night, but those vote figures will include statistics on how many votes are cast below the line.
The below-the-line rate was highest in 2018 on the ordinary votes, so if they are the only ones counted on election night in 2022 that would suggest that night's below the line rate is at the higher end of the likely range.
I was interested to discover that pre-poll voters (who you'd expect to have more time to carry out their vote) are least likely to vote below the line.
can also add that the coalition are also improving on their pre-poll votes as well over the last 2 state elections
but also the independents are pick up more in the pre poll than they do in the postal and absent
There’s an assumption that pre- poll voters are really keen or politically motivated. But I think for most it’s just for convenience, which probably explains the lower below the line vote share.
Any reason why Labor would perform better on absent votes?
Adam, I read from some sources that Anthony Green explained the majority of Absent votes are uni students who may be living on campus or in rented accommodation away from their parents’ home/s. They may still be registered at their old address/es so they would vote absent and be more left leaning.
I agree Lucas, I think a lot of early voters aren’t necessarily “politically motivated” but want to get it out of the way, and/or avoid queues on the day because they expect with EV they will be in & out quickly.
If your motivation is to be in & out quickly, you’re probably less likely to vote below the line (even if it only takes 20 seconds longer).
That makes sense Yoh An.
I also think just more transient voters in general – eg. More likely to be renters who move around more often, for example share houses, and haven’t updated their address with the VEC. Again, a less “established” demographic is more likely to be younger and therefore more left leaning.
Yes, agree Trent as that is what Anthony Green also mentioned – that absent voters will include those living in share type accommodation so will be mostly younger voters.
@ Adam, a theory i have why absent votes may be more left leaning is that they be more used by retail and hospitality workers who work on Saturdays. For example there could be a university student who lives in Blackburn North but who works part time at Chadstone David Jones who may vote in a booth in around Chadstone during their lunch break. Retail and Hospiality workers will be on average younger than the electorate as a whole and will have a lot of university students etc working part time.
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