Gilmore is one of the two closest seats in terms of the final preference count, and is unique for being one of the few seats the Coalition had a feasible chance of gaining from Labor at the election.
Labor won Gilmore in 2019 for the first time in difficult circumstances for the Coalition. The previous member, Ann Sudmalis, retired under threat of losing preselection. The expected winner of the local preselection ended up running as an independent after a captain’s pick for the Liberal preselection, with the Nationals also running.
Things were very different for the Liberals this time, with former state minister Andrew Constance resigning from his state seat of Bega (promptly lost to Labor in a by-election) to contest Gilmore.
On the latest figures, Labor’s Fiona Phillips has won re-election by 373 votes, or 0.17% – the smallest margin by percentage, and the second-smallest margin by raw votes. This is a swing of 2.4% to Constance. The map in this post shows the two-party-preferred swings and percentages.
Most booths showed swings to the Liberal Party, although Phillips gained ground at the northern end of the seat, in booths around Berry, Kangaroo Valley, Jamberoo, Gerroa and Gerringong.
The largest swings to Constance appear to be around Batemans Bay, which is where Constance lives, and the only part of the seat that was part of Constance’s former state electorate. Swings in Milton-Ulladulla were much smaller, and swings in Nowra were also a bit smaller than Batemans Bay.
When looking at the percentages, Constance won most booths around Batemans Bay, and won a bunch of the rural booths in the northern Shoalhaven, but the bigger towns of Nowra, Ulladulla, Kiama and the booths on Jervis Bay all voted Labor.