NSW council elections – the undecided races

7

With the addition of iVotes on Wednesday night, the number of races in play is starting to shrink and we are getting closer to the final primary vote figures for each council race.

In this post I’m going to run through each of the 24 councils I’m covering, and the seats for each council which aren’t decided. These 24 councils have 99 electoral contests for 320 seats. By my count 53 seats in 44 contests are still in play.

All of the iVote is in now, along with most election day booths and most pre-poll booths, although the completeness varies from ward to ward.

I’m planning to keep this post updated over the coming week as more seats are resolved.

Bayside

Decided: 7 ALP, 2 IND
Likely: 2 GRN, 4 IND

Bayside has a surprisingly large number of seats in play. Labor needs to come from behind in one ward (most likely Ward 3) to win a majority. More likely there will be Greens and independents in the balance of power.

  • Ward 1 – 2 ALP elected:
    • Muscat (IND) 0.62
    • Heffernan (IND) 0.51
    • Macdonald (GRN) 0.44
    • Grima (ALP) 0.43
    • Muscat likely to win with weak preference flows but Labor could be pushed ahead of Heffernan and can’t rule out a win on preferences, particularly if gap shrinks on late counting.
  • Ward 2 – 2 ALP elected:
    • Strong (GRN) 0.75
    • Nagi (IND) 0.73
    • Powell (IND) 0.39
    • Jansyn (ALP) 0.13
    • Not many preferences. Greens likely.
  • Ward 3 – 1 ALP elected:
    • Werner (GRN) 0.91
    • Tsounis (IND) 0.82
    • Moustapha (ALP) 0.68
    • Gerakis (IND) 0.59
    • Werner and Tsounis in a strong position. Would be useful to understand where Gerakis preferences are flowing.
  • Ward 4 – 1 ALP, 1 IND elected:
    • Hanna (IND) 0.81
    • Carver (GRN) 0.59
    • Saab (ALP) 0.59
    • Strong preference flows between Labor and Greens would elect one of them but the high rate of exhaustion will likely elect Hanna.
  • Ward 5 – 1 ALP, 1 IND elected:
    • Douglas (IND) 0.80
    • Macdonald (IND) 0.67
    • Macdonald has been leading for most of the count with big chunks of the election day vote missing. Most of that has now reported and Douglas has the lead. Other candidates have 0.53 to distribute as preferences. That is enough of a vote to change the outcome but vote exhaustion is likely to be too high. Macdonald’s best chance will be a comeback on primary votes in late counting.

Blacktown

Decided: 10 ALP, 4 IND
Likely: 1 IND

Labor has retained their ten seats. The only question is who will fill the fifth independent seat.

  • Ward 5 – 2 ALP elected:
    • Chettipally (IND) 0.77
    • Peralta (IND) 0.51
    • Hunter (IND) 0.48
    • Chettipally is a clear favourite. The second-placed contender will need to do well from Labor’s surplus (0.21) and from the half-a-quota from whoever they outpoll, but it’s hard to see preferences flowing that strongly.

Camden

Decided: 4 LIB, 3 ALP, 1 IND
Likely: 1 IND

If the Liberal Party can win the one outstanding seat they will hold a majority on the council. If not, the new councillor McLean likely will be in the balance of power.

  • Central Ward – 1 LIB, 1 ALP elected:
    • McLean (IND) 0.84
    • Dewbery (LIB) 0.71
    • Jamieson (ALP) 0.44
    • McLean is the favourite, with Labor preferences likely crucial.

Campbelltown

Decided: 7 ALP, 4 LIB, 1 IND
Likely: 1 AJP, 1 GRN, 1 IND

Labor holds seven seats. They will not win a majority but will have multiple options to build a working majority. This council will also have the smallest number of councillors who aren’t members of national political parties: just 2-3, down from seven in 1999, five in 2004-2012 and four in 2016.

  • Morrison (TLC) 0.85
  • Stellino (AJP) 0.78
  • Moroney (GRN) 0.74
  • Khalil (IND) 0.73
  • Parnham (IND) 0.52
  • There is another 0.41 in preferences from other candidates, but most of them will likely exhaust. Parnham’s preferences could make the difference with just 0.01 between the 15th and 16th candidates

Canterbury-Bankstown

Decided: 8 ALP, 4 LIB
Likely: 1 ALP, 1 LIB, 1 IND

Labor has already won a majority and look likely to hold on to their existing nine seats, with the Liberal Party retaining their five and the sole Green being replaced by an independent in Canterbury ward.

  • Canterbury Ward – 1 ALP elected:
    • Nguyen (LIB) 0.94
    • Coorey (IND) 0.93
    • Healy (GRN) 0.74
    • Mason (ALP) 0.37
    • It seems very likely that Nguyen and Coorey will be elected.
  • Revesby Ward – 1 ALP, 1 LIB elected:
    • Downey (ALP) 0.68
    • Winterbottom (OLC) 0.51
    • Mortimer (LIB) 0.48
    • Parker (IND) 0.28
    • Downey is very likely to win the last seat.

Cumberland

Decided: 7 ALP, 4 OLC, 3 IND
Likely: 1 ALP

Cumberland has come down to one last seat. Labor is one short of a majority while OLC and their ex-Liberal and ex-Labor allies are also one short. There isn’t really any middle ground on this council: whoever wins that last seat will be in power.

  • Wentworthville Ward – 1 ALP, 1 IND elected:
    • Lake (ALP) 0.78
    • Kafrouni-Saba (OLC) 0.73
    • Selventhiran (GRN) 0.52
    • This race is very close. If Labor stays ahead of OLC they should win, as I expect them to benefit from whatever Greens preferences flow, but OLC could well overtake Labor by the end of the count.

Fairfield

Decided: 10 Carbone/Le, 3 ALP

Frank Carbone has won the mayoralty in a landslide, and so far elected seven colleagues across his ticket and his ally Dai Le’s ticket. His party is also leading for the final two seats, potentially giving them ten out of thirteen seats on the council.

Update 19 Dec: I’e called the last two seats in Parks ward for the Carbone and Le tickets, giving them 10-3.

Georges River

Decided: 5 ALP, 5 LIB, 4 GRRRP
Likely: 1 IND

Labor has lost one seat, with the Liberal Party holding their five. The Georges River Residents and Ratepayers Party has wiped out the existing independents and will play a big role in deciding control of the council.

  • Hurstville Ward – 1 ALP, 1 LIB elected:
    • B Wang (IND) 0.57
    • Jones (GRRRP) 0.44
    • X Wang (IND) 0.41
    • Green (IND) 0.34
    • Cheng (ALP) 0.23
    • Benjamin Wang is leading but there are a lot of preferences still in play.

Hornsby

Decided: 6 LIB, 3 GRN
Likely: 1 LIB

The Liberal Party has already won a majority on Hornsby council, with the final seat deciding if Labor keeps a toehold on the council.

  • B Ward – 1 LIB, 1 GRN elected:
    • Dargan (LIB) 0.95
    • McIntosh (ALP) 0.92
    • Hatley (GRN) 0.13
    • The final seat is very close. The small number of Greens preferences will presumably favour Labor, but only if it remains very close.

Inner West

Decided: 5 ALP, 5 GRN, 2 IND
Likely: 2 ALP, 1 IND

There are three seats in play, with Labor in a good position to win all three off their former conservative allies. If they win all three they will have a majority.

  • Ashfield-Djarrawunang Ward – 1 ALP, 1 GRN elected:
    • D’Arienzo (ALP) 0.58
    • Rajkumar (GRN) 0.46
    • Mansour (IND) 0.40
    • Passas (IND) 0.33
    • Dixon (IND) 0.22
    • Labor is in a strong position to win, with preferences from the independents likely favouring Labor over Greens.
  • Leichhardt-Gulgadya Ward – 1 ALP, 1 GRN elected:
    • Raciti (IND) 0.62
    • Stephens (ALP) 0.60
    • Suttie (GRN) 0.44
    • Hannaford (IND) 0.17
    • Della-Iacovo (AJP) 0.17
    • While the ex-Liberal independent Raciti is narrowly in the lead, preferences should favour Labor, and there is easily enough out there to close the current 0.02q gap.
  • Marrickville-Midjuburi Ward – 1 ALP, 1 GRN elected:
    • Macri (IND) 0.81
    • Tsardoulias (ALP) 0.74
    • Kontellis (GRN) 0.45
    • Macri doesn’t have much of a lead. It seems likely that Greens preferences would favour Labor, but Greens voters often prefer independents, and I suspect many don’t actually know about Macri’s politics. Too close to call.

Ku-ring-gai

Decided: Ngai, Pettett, Smith, Taylor, Ward, Wheatley
Likely: Kay, Spencer, Taylor and Lennon or Cook

Six out of ten seats have been filled. Three of the others have a clear leader, with Gordon ward very close.

  • Gordon Ward – Ward elected:
    • Lennon 0.58
    • Cook 0.55
    • Li 0.46
    • Kelly 0.41
    • Lennon and Cook are very close together and both in the race.
  • Roseville Ward – Ngai elected:
    • Taylor 0.72
    • Anderson 0.56
    • Blackman 0.51
    • Ching 0.21
    • Taylor is in a strong position. Anderson would need a strong preference flow to win.
  • St Ives Ward – Smith elected:
    • Kay 0.65
    • Ryan 0.52
    • Song 0.47
    • Brien 0.36
    • Kay has a solid lead but hasn’t put this away yet.
  • Wahroonga Ward – Wheatley elected:
    • Spencer 0.64
    • Beresford 0.49
    • Strahan (LDP) 0.40
    • Evans 0.37
    • McLean 0.24
    • Spencer is the favourite here.

Lake Macquarie

Decided: 7 ALP, 3 LIB, 3 Lake Mac Independents

Labor has gained one additional seat, giving them a majority on the council.

Liverpool

Decided: 4 ALP, 4 LIB
Likely: 2 LCIT, 1 LIB

Labor looks likely to lose the mayoralty to the Liberal Party. If the Liberals can catch up on the Liverpool Community Independents Team (LCIT) in the South ward that will give them a majority. If they don’t, the balance of power will likely be held by LCIT. There’s also a scenario where the Greens will win a seat and hold the balance of power, either on their own or with LCIT, if Labor wins the mayoralty.

  • Mayor of Liverpool:
    • Mannoun (LIB) 42.0%
    • Hagarty (ALP) 38.1%
    • Andjelkovic (IND) 8.4%
    • Harle (LCIT) 7.1%
    • Morshed (GRN) 4.4%
    • Mannoun is in the box seat, but without a preference count I can’t call this seat.
  • North Ward – 2 ALP, 2 LIB elected:
    • Harle (LCIT) 0.65
    • Howard (GRN) 0.50
    • Andjelkovic (IND) 0.37
    • Usher (ALP) 0.33
    • Zadro (LIB) 0.14
    • Harle is the front-runner, but Howard could be a contender if they do well from Labor preferences and partly close the primary gap.
  • South Ward – 2 ALP, 2 LIB elected:
    • Rhodes (LCIT) 0.54
    • Ammoun/Adjei (LIB) 0.48
    • Morshed (GRN) 0.29
    • Singleton (ALP) 0.24
    • Chiluwal (IND) 0.17
    • Breton (IND) 0.15
    • Robertson (IND) 0.12
    • Humphreys (IND) 0.01
    • Rhodes is narrowly in the lead, but could easily be caught by the Liberal candidate (whose identity depends on the result of the mayoral election). Greens and Labor preferences aren’t going to help the Liberal candidate, but the most likely outcome is whoever is in front at the end of the primary count will win.

Newcastle

Elected: 6 ALP, 1 LIB, 1 GRN, 1 IND
Likely: 2 LIB, 1 ALP, 1 GRN

Labor need one more seat for a majority. The remaining seats in Ward 3 are relatively clear, while Ward 2 is a bit closer, but the final shape is reasonably clear.

  • Ward 2 – 1 ALP elected:
    • Barrie (LIB) 0.92
    • McCabe (GRN) 0.85
    • Fallon (IND) 0.78
    • Johnson (ALP) 0.45
    • There are three candidates in close contention for two seats. Labor preferences should favour the Greens, so it seems most likely the Liberal and Greens candidates will win.
  • Ward 3 – 1 ALP elected:
    • Wark (LIB) 0.75
    • Wood (ALP) 0.74
    • Francis-Coan (GRN) 0.52
    • Brooker (IND) 0.45
    • Wild (IND) 0.33
    • Brollo (AJP) 0.19
    • The Liberal and Labor candidates are well out in front and likely to win, but it’s still worth watching.

Northern Beaches

Decided: 6 YNB, 5 LIB, 2 IND
Likely: 2 GRN

The last two seats on the council are contests between Labor and the Greens, and between Greens and Liberal candidates. The Your Northern Beaches team should end up with a working majority with Greens or Labor, but a Greens win in Pittwater would see that bloc increase its numbers.

  • Curl Curl Ward – 1 YNB, 1 LIB elected:
    • Glanville (GRN) 0.62
    • Clifford (ALP) 0.59
    • Hislop (YNB) 0.42
    • Furlong (LIB) 0.36
    • This race is very close and will probably be decided by preferences.
  • Pittwater Ward – 1 YNB, 1 LIB elected:
    • Korzy (GRN) 0.80
    • Page (LIB) 0.67
    • McTaggart (IND) 0.49
    • Sitting councillor McTaggart is a long way back in the race. Rates of exhaustion will probably be enough to change the current lead but it’s worth watching.

Parramatta

Decided: 6 ALP, 3 OLC, 3 IND, 1 GRN
Likely: 1 OLC, 1 ALP

With the calling of the last seat in the Parramatta ward for the Greens, Labor’s chances for a majority have gone away, but they should be able to form a working majority.

  • Rosehill Ward – 1 ALP, 1 OLC elected:
    • Noack (ALP) 0.73
    • Strano (GRN) 0.69
    • Wilson (SBP) 0.57
    • Price (SA) 0.19
    • The last seat is very close between Labor and the Greens. It doesn’t seem like there will be many preferences, and Wilson preferences will likely be absorbed by the OLC candidate sitting on 0.82 quotas.

Penrith

Decided: 6 LIB, 5 ALP, 3 IND
Likely: 1 IND

Labor has lost at least one seat and is narrowly trailing for the other seat they’re defending. At least one sitting independent has lost their seat, while another is still trying to hold onto theirs, while two new independents have been elected.

  • South Ward – 2 LIB, 1 ALP, 1 IND elected:
    • Aitkin (IND) 0.91
    • Presdee (ALP) 0.80
    • Skinner (IND) 0.17
    • Nahhas (LIB) 0.11
    • There’s a close race for the final seat, but Aitkin is in the box seat.

Randwick

Decided: 5 ALP, 5 LIB, 2 GRN, 1 IND
Likely: 1 GRN, 1 IND

The Liberal Party has already gained a seat off an independent in the South ward, with the Greens competing against conservatives in two other wards. If the Greens lose both contests the ALP and Greens will no longer hold a majority on the council, but it seems more likely they will win one race.

  • Central Ward – 1 ALP, 1 LIB elected:
    • Andrews (IND) 0.74
    • Chapple (GRN) 0.66
    • Ziegler (ALP) 0.46
    • The race for the last seat is close, and Labor preferences will be crucial.
  • West Ward – 1 ALP, 1 LIB elected:
    • Veitch (GRN) 0.92
    • Stavrinos (OLC) 0.89
    • Moore (ALP) 0.12
    • Kean (LIB) 0.05
    • This race is extremely close and there’s not many preferences.

Ryde

Decided: 5 ALP, 4 LIB, 1 IND
Likely: 2 LIB, 1 IND

Labor needs two more allies for a clear majority. If the Greens win in East ward and Zhou wins in the West that will be achieved, but if the Liberals win a seat in both wards the council will be set for a deadlock.

  • East Ward – 1 ALP, 1 LIB, 1 IND elected:
    • Lara-Watson (LIB) 0.76
    • Gordon (GRN) 0.56
    • Price (ALP) 0.49
    • Tisseverasinghe (IND) 0.19
    • Labor and the Greens easily have enough votes to catch up on the Liberal candidate, but if a lot of votes exhaust they may fall short.
  • West Ward – 2 ALP, 1 LIB elected:
    • Han (LIB) 0.67
    • Zhou (IND) 0.57
    • Kim (IND) 0.49
    • Lin (IND) 0.22
    • This is a close contest. At the moment Kim is falling behind and it’s most likely Han or Zhou will win.

Shoalhaven

Decided: 4 SIG, 3 GRN, 2 ALP
Likely: 1 GRN, 1 ALP, 1 SIG, 1 IND

This council is on a knife’s edge. The Shoalhaven Independents Group (SIG) still has a chance of winning a majority if they win all three remaining contests. The Greens and ALP between them look set to win six council seats, so only need to win the mayoralty to win seven. SIG also has the challenge of other independents – they are currently neck and neck with independent Copley in Ward 1 and are trailing Ell in Ward 2.

  • Mayor of Shoalhaven:
    • Findley (GRN) 34.0%
    • Green (IND) 25.9%
    • Watson (SIG) 14.0%
    • White (SIG) 9.9%
    • Kitchener (SIG) 9.4%
    • Digiglio (IND) 6.8%
    • Findley is in a strong position to win despite only polling one third of the vote and having almost 60% of the vote sitting with right-wing candidates. I expect the lack of how-to-votes will result in many SIG preferences scattering or exhausting and Watson will struggle to overtake Green, and even then there will be further exhaustion and scattering. Still the right clearly has the majority here and it wouldn’t be surprising if Green manages to catch up on Findley.
  • Ward 1 – 1 GRN, 1 SIG elected:
    • Norris (ALP) 0.91
    • Clancy (SIG) 0.87
    • Copley (IND) 0.86
    • Stanton (GRN) 0.33
    • Labor is in a strong position to win the third seat but the fourth seat is a very tight contest between the two independents.
  • Ward 2 – 1 GRN, 1 SIG, 1 ALP elected:
    • Ell (IND) 0.87
    • Pakes (SIG) 0.75
    • Ell has the lead here but doesn’t have it in the bag. There’s also one third of a quota of preferences from Labor and Greens to distribute.

Sutherland

Decided: 7 LIB, 4 ALP, 1 IND
Likely: 1 IND, 1 LIB, 1 ALP

The Liberal Party needs just one more seat to win their majority, and that seat is likely to fall in C Ward. The other two seats are races between Labor and independents. Sutherland will likely have a bigger bench of independents than it did in the last term.

  • A Ward – 1 LIB elected:
    • Farmer (IND) 0.71
    • Forshaw (ALP) 0.65
    • Chantler (IND) 0.38
    • Moore (GRN) 0.36
    • The second Liberal is in a strong position to win the second seat, with the third seat as a close race.
  • C Ward – 1 LIB, 1 ALP elected:
    • Strangas (LIB) 0.86
    • Robins (IND) 0.72
    • Ward (ALP) 0.33
    • There probably aren’t enough Labor preferences to close this gap – Robins’ only hope is the primary vote count changing.
  • D Ward – 1 LIB, 1 ALP elected:
    • McLean (ALP) 0.70
    • Passmore (IND) 0.68
    • Matthews (LIB) 0.62
    • Very close race for the final seat.

Sydney

Decided: 5 CMT, 1 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 LIB, 1 IND
Likely: 1 LIB

Clover Moore has definitely been elected as mayor and will take another four seats on the council, with just one seat still in play. The Liberal Party are in a strong position for that last seat.

  • Council of the City of Sydney – 4 CMT, 1 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 LIB, 1 IND elected:
    • Gannon (LIB) 0.77
    • Vithoulkas (SBP) 0.62
    • Minton (ALP) 0.52
    • Worling (CMT) 0.12
    • Toborek (GRN) 0.09

The Hills

Decided: 9 LIB, 3 ALP
Likely: 1 GRN

The Liberal Party has maintained their supermajority on the Hills. It seems likely they will lose one seat to the Greens but it hasn’t been locked in yet.

  • North Ward – 2 LIB elected:
    • Kasby (GRN) 0.98
    • O’Connor (LIB) 0.87
    • Rozycki (IND) 0.15
    • If the primary votes stay at their current level, Kasby will win, but she could still be vulnerable if late counting brings her back closer to the Liberal.

Wollongong

Decided: 5 ALP, 3 LIB, 2 GRN, 1 IND
Likely: 1 IND, 1 ALP

Labor has a shot at a majority here if they can win both the undecided races. They are in a strong position to win the final seat in Ward 2, and they are a real shot at the mayoralty.

  • Lord Mayor of Wollongong:
    • Bradbery (IND) 30.8%
    • Brown (ALP) 28.7%
    • Dorahy (LIB) 19.3%
    • Cox (GRN) 12.6%
    • Anthony (SUS) 5.0%
    • Glykis (IND) 3.6%
    • Bradbery is leading but the race is very close. Even with a lot of vote exhaustion it wouldn’t take much for Labor to catch up. The Liberal Party is preferencing Bradbery and the Greens are preferencing Brown.
  • Ward 2 – 1 ALP, 1 LIB, 1 GRN elected:
    • Brown (ALP) 0.73
    • Cristini (LIB) 0.52
    • Meyrick (IND) 0.39
    • Anthony (SUS) 0.32
    • Labor is in a strong position to win this race.
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7 COMMENTS

  1. Hi Ben,

    I think you have a mistake in the West Ward of Ryde.
    2 ALP and 1 Lib have been elected on quota meaning there is only one spot left between the Liberal and Independents.
    If Liberals win in both remaining wards they will have 6 + 1 former Lib IND and 5 ALP.

  2. Georges River has elected 4 GRRR candidates with the only one with any local government expertise running in Hurstville ward and missing out!

    They are a one issue party and will see millions wasted on a pool that others could pay for but leave us residents with $20m bill.

  3. Thanks Nathan, that’s fixed. But the commentary is still correct – if Labor/Greens win last East seat and Zhou wins West then Labor will have a working majority.

  4. Curious that you’ve called the 3rd seat in Narrabeen Ward of Northern Beaches Council – seems to me that it’s too close to call between De Luca (IND) and Hrnjak (GRN).

  5. Hmm, it’s been a few days since I looked at that ward, but I think De Luca is fine. He has a lead of 0.19q with 0.82q in preferences to distribute. If half of those preferences exhausted (seems likely it will be much higher) Hrnjak would need about 3/4 of what is left to win, which I think is implausible.

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