NSW state redistribution finalised

17

The final electoral boundaries to be used at the 2023 New South Wales state election were released on Thursday, and I have now finished my new electoral map, along with estimates of margins.

You can download the Google Earth map file here.

Most of the changes between the draft and final boundaries were minor and didn’t involve much change. The main changes affected the western Sydney seat of Londonderry, both on its border with Penrith and Mount Druitt.

The Labor margin in Londonderry dropped from 3.9% to 3.0% between the draft and the final, and also dropped from 0.8% to 0.6% in Penrith. There were also small changes to The Entrance, Mount Druitt, Wyong and Sydney. No other change was detectable at the level of 0.1%.

Estimating margins is often made more difficult when the two-candidate-preferred counts don’t line up, particularly when the final count is not between Labor and the Coalition. NSW makes this a lot easier because they publish two-candidate-preferred counts at the booth level between every combination of candidates in a seat.

My margin estimate for Alex Greenwich in Sydney increased by 0.4% mainly due Lord Howe Island being put back into Port Macquarie after it was moved to Sydney in the draft. This estimate is a bit wobbly – I relied on the Liberal vs Greens margin for the areas added to Sydney from Heffron, Newtown and Port Macquarie, with the Greens acting as a proxy for Greenwich, but of course he is not a Greens MP.

The other issue worth noting is that I produced an incorrect margin for Cootamundra on the draft boundaries. I missed the Liberal two-candidate-preferred votes moved into Cootamundra from Goulburn. The 2019 margin in Cootamundra was 27.1%. I previously said that the new margin was 24.5%. It is actually 26.7% (both on the draft and final boundaries).

The following map shows the 2015-19 boundaries and the 2023 boundaries. You can toggle the boundary lines on and off, and separately toggle the seat names. Below the fold you can see my estimates for all 93 seats.

ElectorateOld boundariesNew boundariesParty
Bankstown (abolished)13.8 ALP vs LIB
Albury16.015.9 LIB vs ALP
Auburn9.113.4 ALP vs LIB
Badgerys Creek (Mulgoa)11.39.7 LIB vs ALP
Ballina5.44.9 GRN vs NAT
Balmain10.010.0 GRN vs ALP
Bankstown (Lakemba)22.420.5 ALP vs LIB
Barwon6.66.6 SFF vs NAT
Bathurst17.917.9 NAT vs ALP
Bega6.96.9 LIB vs ALP
Blacktown17.716.6 ALP vs LIB
Blue Mountains14.913.6 ALP vs LIB
Cabramatta12.912.0 ALP vs IND
Camden7.67.4 LIB vs ALP
Campbelltown17.016.3 ALP vs LIB
Canterbury13.015.6 ALP vs LIB
Castle Hill (Baulkham Hills)18.722.4 LIB vs ALP
Cessnock19.319.8 ALP vs NAT
Charlestown12.413.0 ALP vs NAT
Clarence14.514.5 NAT vs ALP
Coffs Harbour10.810.8 NAT vs ALP
Coogee1.62.1 ALP vs LIB
Cootamundra27.126.7 NAT vs ALP
Cronulla19.619.6 LIB vs ALP
Davidson25.524.7 LIB vs ALP
Drummoyne15.013.7 LIB vs ALP
Dubbo2.02.0 NAT vs IND
East Hills0.50.1 LIB vs ALP
Epping12.410.9 LIB vs ALP
Fairfield17.916.6 ALP vs LIB
Gosford7.37.1 ALP vs LIB
Goulburn3.53.1 LIB vs ALP
Granville7.68.8 ALP vs LIB
Hawkesbury17.517.0 LIB vs ALP
Heathcote5.02.1 ALP vs LIB
Heffron15.115.0 ALP vs LIB
Holsworthy3.36.2 LIB vs ALP
Hornsby16.316.8 LIB vs ALP
Keira19.718.3 ALP vs LIB
Kellyville (Castle Hill)24.723.0 LIB vs ALP
Kiama12.012.0 LIB vs ALP
Kogarah1.80.3 ALP vs LIB
Lake Macquarie22.123.4 IND vs ALP
Lane Cove14.314.7 LIB vs ALP
Leppington (New seat)0.01.5 ALP vs LIB
Lismore1.31.8 ALP vs NAT
Liverpool16.717.6 ALP vs NAT
Londonderry6.53.0 ALP vs LIB
Macquarie Fields14.814.8 ALP vs LIB
Maitland13.214.7 ALP vs LIB
Manly12.913.1 LIB vs GRN
Maroubra8.58.4 ALP vs LIB
Miranda14.614.2 LIB vs ALP
Monaro11.611.6 NAT vs ALP
Mount Druitt16.418.4 ALP vs LIB
Murray3.53.5 SFF vs NAT
Myall Lakes9.29.2 NAT vs ALP
Newcastle17.717.6 ALP vs LIB
Newtown13.811.5 GRN vs ALP
North Shore11.111.1 LIB vs IND
Northern Tablelands32.833.3 NAT vs ALP
Oatley10.57.4 LIB vs ALP
Orange15.215.2 SFF vs NAT
Oxley14.915.4 NAT vs ALP
Parramatta10.66.3 LIB vs ALP
Penrith1.30.6 LIB vs ALP
Pittwater22.422.4 LIB vs ALP
Port Macquarie20.320.1 NAT vs ALP
Port Stephens5.85.8 ALP vs LIB
Prospect10.78.8 ALP vs LIB
Riverstone6.36.2 LIB vs ALP
Rockdale9.510.0 ALP vs LIB
Ryde9.09.0 LIB vs ALP
Shellharbour18.318.6 ALP vs LIB
South Coast10.610.6 LIB vs ALP
Strathfield5.05.2 ALP vs LIB
Summer Hill16.517.1 ALP vs GRN
Swansea10.610.6 ALP vs LIB
Sydney11.813.7 IND vs LIB
Tamworth29.527.9 NAT vs ALP
Terrigal12.312.3 LIB vs ALP
The Entrance5.25.2 ALP vs LIB
Tweed5.05.0 NAT vs ALP
Upper Hunter2.60.6 ALP vs NAT
Vaucluse19.319.7 LIB vs GRN
Wagga Wagga15.515.5 IND vs NAT
Wahroonga (Ku-ring-gai)20.519.1 LIB vs ALP
Wakehurst21.021.8 LIB vs ALP
Wallsend25.425.9 ALP vs LIB
Willoughby21.020.7 LIB vs ALP
Winston Hills (Seven Hills)6.45.4 LIB vs ALP
Wollondilly13.814.2 LIB vs ALP
Wollongong21.422.4 ALP vs LIB
Wyong12.413.0 ALP vs LIB
Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!

17 COMMENTS

  1. I’m pleasantly surprised that the Panel adopted almost exactly (modulo a couple dozen electors and some details involving no electors) the alternative in my objection for Londonderry, despite the Liberal Party offering absurd boundaries that they pushed further in the hearing.

    Disappointed that they didn’t fix Hornsby.

  2. I wouldn’t have called the Liberal proposals for Penrith/Londonderry “absurd”?? Assuming the Penrith area needs to be split somewhere, The Northern Road is at least a fairly clear divide between east and west.

    It was very likely self-serving for their margin in Penrith, but that doesn’t mean it was preposterous…..

  3. Chris Minns is probably going to have to change seat. He has the most marginal ALP seat in the whole state so it is really too risky for him to stay in Kogarah, especially as ALP leader.

  4. It’s good to see this redistribution hasn’t resulted in the abolishment of any regional electorates. Disappointed that the Upper Hunter hasn’t been renamed to fit it’s geographic location with even more the electorate population based around Singleton area.

    My only predictions for the regions in 2023 are that the Liberals will lose Goulburn, Lismore will be a National Party gain given that a large proportion of Labor voters in the electorate would rather preference the Nationals than let the local anti-vax hippy green sect in. With the changes increasing the Green vote in Lismore Labor would be put third and preferences would flow. Ballina stays Green unless something drastic happens (maybe an Anti-Vax party splitting the heavy Byron Shire green vote). The anti-vax vote used to be useful for the Greens up north but they seem to be shifting their attitude which might cost them electorally in such an anti-vax area.

  5. I’d be wary taking notional shifts in the Greens vote in Lismore at face value without accounting for incumbency effects. In 2019, Tamara Smith had a sophomore surge and her primary vote increased even as the Greens primary decreased in neighboring Lismore. In 2023, Janelle Saffin will be the beneficiary of this incumbency effect and there is no reason to expect the ex-Ballina voters now in Lismore will necessarily remain with the Greens when there is a different candidate on the ballot.

    That said, the margins are tight and I agree that in the event the Greens reach second place, the likely result will be a Nationals gain.

  6. Maybe, maybe not. Where they do well, Greens sometimes beat Labor on 2pp against the Coalition. They did in Ballina, for instance. Anti-vax sentiment is fast becoming a right-wing cultural phenomenon anyway, and if any of the major parties have been pandering to that, it’s the Coalition.

  7. I make no comment one way or the other about anti-vax sentiment and its potential impacts. All I am saying is interpreting votes that were cast for the incumbent member for Ballina in areas that have now been transferred to Lismore as being strictly party line votes will give an inflated estimate of the baseline Greens vote in Lismore. Furthermore that Labor’s vote would be expected to increase all else being equal as Janelle Saffin is a first-term incumbent. I agree that the numbers are nevertheless tight enough that it remains plausible for the Greens to overtake Labor for the final two.

  8. Minns will hold onto his seat. You cannot assume a swing to the Liberals after all that has happened with the pandemic. Glady’s should have locked the state down earlier to prevent the mess we are in now. I wouldn’t rule out a Labor majority at this stage even though it’s tricky on the pendelum, Allot of seats are inflated such as Riverstone,Mulgoa,Drummoyne,Parramatta, etc. So I really wouldn’t rule out those seats with the way things are going now.

    And Barliaro is going to lose because of the Jordies situation. Jordies did nothing wrong.

    Minns however should still move seats as it is highly unusual for a premier or opposition leader to be from a marginal seat (Although Dan Andrews seat wasn’t completely safe before 2018 and neither is Steve Marshalls)

    I predict Minns will be the next premier a complete 180 from my prediction before the outbreak. and the Glady’s affair will still be on voters minds in 2023, And should she resign it will be even worse for them if the replacement is Perrottet due to him being too conservative for many of the marginal NSW seats.

    Andrew Constance is their only hope at this stage.

  9. On one hand, the ‘musical chairs’ Labor will need to play in the south-west will be tricky. I agree that Minns would be much better off accommodated in a safer seat, plus there’s two frontbenchers fighting over the combined Bansktown/Lakemba seat.

    On the other hand, surely there must be some dead-wood backbenchers clogging up safe seats? Could be an opportunity for NSW Labor to refresh themselves in south-western Sydney like they did at federal level.

  10. Mark – when did they do the ALP do that refresh federally? With Anne Stanley!!
    Daniel – I’m afraid we are all armchair epidemiologists. Immediate lockdown was Dan’s strategy and the Delta growth in Victoria is at a rate ahead of NSW. Lets see what plays out when we get out of lockdown – but any election prediction while we are in the middle of lockdown has little if any long term value.

  11. This speculation over Minns is silly. Consider:

    * The 2019 result was probably an aberration. Recall that Labor held Kogarah in the 2011 landslide, on more hostile boundaries.
    * The draft boundaries have been out since last November, yet just last week the Daily Telegraph reported Minns’s purchase of a new house in Kogarah.
    * The amalgamation of Lakemba and Bankstown has already created a musical chairs scenario.
    * Minns became leader after the Upper Hunter by-election. It can hardly be unacceptable to lose Upper Hunter but OK to abandon Kogarah.

    He’s not shifting seat.

  12. Daniel, It’d be silly to suggest that Barilaro will lose because of some YouTube personality that only has support in Labor circles. Most people have bigger concerns affecting their daily lives and care about those issues when it comes time to vote, especially in regional areas. I can see a path for Labor to win at the next election but I don’t see it at the expense of the Nationals in any way. I also don’t see Chris Minns holding his current seat even if Labor wins, Kogarah voters already held back last election and nearly booted the party. I don’t see him as the type of MP to switch seats either. So we may see (for the first time) a party get elected without a clear Premier…

  13. Nick Lalich (Cabramatta MP) is probably one of those backbenchers who could retire at the upcoming election, freeing up one south-west Sydney seat. There was speculation that he would retire last election, but chose to recontest.

  14. David, 2011 isn’t a good barometer because there’s been 10 years of demographic change since then, especially around Hurstville. The trend of the Asian vote – increasingly wealthy – has not been favourable to Labor and will only be accentuated if the Libs run Scott Yung again.

    IIRC Minns got some good swings in the less diverse, more traditionally Liberal booths around Carss Park and elsewhere so maybe that will save him again? Who knows.

    Moderate, agree 100%.

  15. I also agree with Moderate’s view – I am originally from Sydney and have family living there. I feel that the mood there is very different from other smaller states (I am now in Brisbane, Queensland). Many locals feel that the risk is now lower with ever increasing vaccination rates and that it is difficult to achieve zero cases in a densely populated city environment.

  16. @Mark Mulcair

    Yes, you’re right, I’m probably being too harsh. Just tilted by how much nonsense political parties pull off during redistributions.

    Those boundaries may have been obvious and recognisable, but as I argued in my comment on objections, they aren’t ideal from a community of interest perspective.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here