WA 2021 – what’s your guess?

28

Election day is tomorrow in Western Australia.

We haven’t had any more proper polling since the Newspoll three weeks ago which gave Labor 68% of the two-party-preferred vote. Overall, we haven’t had much polling for this election. It’s quite likely that 68% poll is an outlier, but we don’t really have much else.

Meanwhile a record number of Western Australians have cast an early vote. As of the end of Wednesday, according to Antony Green, over a quarter of all enrolled voters have cast a pre-poll vote, while almost one fifth of all enrolled voters have requested a postal vote and at least 8% of the total electorate has already returned a postal vote.

This is substantially higher than in past WA elections, but it isn’t as much of a departure as we saw in the ACT, where almost 70% of votes were cast as pre-poll votes, or in Queensland where the number was over 40%. We’ll see how the final days of voting go.

Anyway, this post is just an opportunity for commenters to jump in with your thoughts on who you think will win (which I don’t think will be controversial), but also what the final vote count will be, and who will win specific seats in play.

Go ahead!

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28 COMMENTS

  1. If the Newspoll is accurate or anywhere near an accurate reflection of result it is a clear warning to Liberal Party. National Party have just put out a white paper on Australian Manufacturing 2035 which they outline a complete turn around in Australian Economy. Which advocates a clear change of direction in Australian Economy post the pandemic.

  2. ALP 48 LIB 7 NAT 4

    Labor gains Darling Range, Hillarys, Dawesville, Geraldton, Riverton, Scarborough, Kalgoorlie, North West Central.

    I haven’t examined the upper house. I’d guess a left-of-centre majority with Labor falling just short in its own right.

  3. I think the ALP will also pick up Bateman & South Perth. The Libs ground game is appalling and no policy or resources for these seats. Poor candidate choices, lazy previous members who took the seats for granted.

  4. I think Labor will win about 45 out of 59 seats in the LA. But the LC is much more interesting. I am hoping Brad Pettit will win for the Greens in South Metro, and Labor will hold its 3 seats there. And in North Metro, Labor could gains 1 seat, while Alison X hold her seat. If Greens and Labor hold their seats in SW, AG and Mining. there will be a progressive majority in The Upper House, probably the first ever. Electoral Reform may result. It depends on the arm wrestling. First within the ALP, then with the Greens, then in the LC itself. As a committed Democrat, who has followed and been active in this campaign for an end to vote weighting in the LC, I have my fingers crossed for a good result.

  5. Nats lose Geraldton and North West Central.

    Libs lose everything but Vasse, Churchlands, Cottesloe and Carine

    That leaves Liberals and Nationals with exactly 4 seats each, which will make things interesting in terms of who forms opposition.

  6. I’ve adjusted my prediction several times throughout the past few weeks, really just as I can’t believe what i’m seeing as far as polling is concerned, especially building on the big swing Labor had last time, but it’s just looked worse and worse for the Liberals with each second that passes.

    At large I think there will be a maximum swing of about 10-12% in the Metro area, and around 5-8% in regional WA, which leads me to expect a result along the lines of around 48 for Labor (maybe as high as 51). Liberals could be down to as few as 3 (I don’t see Cottesloe, Churchlands or Vasse flipping) and I expect the Nationals to hold all of their seats bar Geraldton.

    Labor Gains (Ordered from most to least likely)
    Hillarys, Dawesville, Scarborough, Darling Range, Geraldton, Kalgoorlie & Riverton

    Seats i’m not brave enough to call, but I think Labor have a chance in (I expect them to gain 1, but not all)
    South Perth, Carine & Nedlands

    If the Liberals by some shred of a chance are able to gain anything I suspect it will either be in
    Murray-Wellington, Kalamunda or Albany. Though that’s probably more up for debate in 2025.

    Either way we’re looking at a 2012 Queensland or 2011 New South Wales style landslide, except the Liberals are on the losing end.

  7. ALP: 47 (+7)
    LIB: 7 (-6)
    NAT: 5 (-1)

    Labor Gains: Dawesville, Hillarys, Scarbs, Darling Range, Geraldton, Riverton, South Perth (SP is the most ‘out there’ guess, however a combination of:
    1) Labor getting a good ballot position
    2) Good campaigning in the area vs the libs
    3) The current well-known lib MP retiring
    4) Labors general swing – has me thinking they have a chance here.

    I do have the Libs retaining Kalgoorlie because I don’t think we’ll see the Labor swing as strong in the regional areas compared to Metro but I do think it will be close.

    Haven’t looked into the Upper House as much but I do think the ‘No Vac’ party have a good chance in South Metro thanks to preferencing. The Lib Dems definitely won’t be getting back in. Daylight Savings may also get in for the same reason.

  8. People will think I’m crazy but I’m still going out on a limb that the Nationals & Liberals can scrape through to hold all their seats (not to be decided tomorrow night).

    If anything, the Liberals may (not saying will) also scrape through in Murray-Wellington, Bicton & Kalamunda.

    I would reckon the Labor margins after tomorrow night will be way more inflated than they are now here in QLD.

  9. The only seats that I think the Liberals are very likely to hold are Cottesloe, Vasse and Churchlands. Liberal held seats where it could conceivably go either way are Carine, Nedlands, Bateman, South Perth. Kalgoorlie, Scarborough and Riverton are competitive but likely Labor gains. North West Central could go from National to Labor.

    My prediction is that Labor will gain, in order of likelihood Darling Range, Hillarys, Dawesville, Geraldton, Riverton , Scarborough and Kalgoorlie.

    I think the next batch of seats will be line-ball with Labor winning 3 of 5 of them – South Perth, Bateman, Nedlands, North West Central and Carine.

    So overall my prediction is:
    2PP:
    ALP – 65% (+9.5%)
    L/NP – 35% (-9.5%)

    Seats:
    ALP – 50 (+10)
    LIB – 4 or 5 (-8 or -9)
    NAT – 4 or 5 (-1 or -2)

  10. Prefacing this with the fact I am always wildly wrong with election predictions, i will go bold and say:

    Labor 50 (+10)
    Lib 3 (-10)
    Nat 6 (no change)

    Liberals to be left with Vasse, Cottesloe and Churchlands. Nats only losing Geraldton, but winning Kalgoorlie by a whisker.

  11. I will go out on a blade of grass (the Nats equivalent of a limb) and suggest that the Nats will only retain Moore, Central Wheatbelt, and Roe. Resources for Deluxe Dunnies was a successful policy but it only works when the voters can see some chance of it being implemented. If the policy can’t be implemented then voters will still have nothing to go on.

    IMHO the Nats have buckleys chance of implementing their New Gold Dream – a gold tax to turn Kalgoorlie into a public toilet El Dorado.

  12. It’s worth noting that the Libs’ safest-looking two seats – Cottesloe and Vasse, with margins of 14.x percent, are also on the list of the seats with a high proportion (25%) of elderly voters. So if the indications that the elderly like that nice Mr McGowan because he keeps them safe are true, the swings could be higher than average there. Whether they’ll reach 14% who knows – but they might go close.

  13. Clearly Government will be returned.
    Before the ALPGet too cocky elsewhere it is the government that is being returned not the ALP.
    In times of war and crisis electorates Clock back to those in power providing they are doing a good job. This is the key to McGowan government is seen as having done the right thing during COVID 19 just as the Palaszczuk Government is seen in Queensland as having done the right thing. Those arguing differently Fringe dwellers relying on Trump to win them an election In W.A.
    McGowan can Thanks Clive Palmer for convincing large numbers of Western Australians that The government was more intelligent than the opposition. Palmer’s court case and especially Court Loss Greatly assisted McGowan.
    So liberals should have given the W.A. government full support over Covid. Those liberals who actively criticised McGowan are the once at fault for the loss.
    I’m inclined to think that the Nats Will come out of tonight‘s election results with no change.

  14. My prediction is that Labor will win, but not by as big a landslide as is being predicted. People can tell pollsters they support the job McGowan’s doing all they like, but when it comes to actually voting, it would be hard to go against a life time’s voting habits. His approval rating is also based more on his performance last year and for standing up to Berejiklian… except that he’s starting to adopt the Berejiklian model now. He’s been reopening the borders that his approval rating is based on him keeping closed, and he’s gone down the QR code route instead. He’s still good at shutting the borders back up pretty quickly when there’s an outbreak, but that just draws attention to the fact they’ve been opened. But at the end of the day, the Liberals would be worse. Liza Harvey was arguing in favour of soft borders when the virus was still rampant over east, and Zak Kirkup doesn’t inspire much hope that he would handle it any better. McGowan at least gives the hope that he might revert to his stance late last year.

    Labor win, but not by as much as people are assuming. They’re also coming across a little cocky too, as much as they’re trying not to.

  15. Mark McGowan was campaigning in Vasse about 1.5 weeks ago.
    Maybe, Labor thinks they are in with a chance in that seat.

  16. My guess is Labor wins the following seats:

    Dawesville, Hillarys, Scarborough, Geraldton, Kalgoorlie, North West Central (good bye traitor), Darling Range, Riverton

    If would not surprise me if South Perth, Nedlands, and Bateman all went Labor as well (this would be unheard of). Warren = Blackwood could be interesting too.

    The question is really how will that translate for Labor in a Federal Election. Did not happen last election and depends on the boundary changes.

  17. I was for quite a while sceptical about Labor gaining numerous seats, but as the election has drawn closer it has became clear the McGowan government is set to be returned in emphatic fashion. Still think some of the more optimistic predictions of Labor having over 50 seats are overcooking things a bit, but it wouldn’t be a complete shock if that does occur.

    ALP to gain: Hilarys, Dawesville, Riverton, Scarborough, Geraldton, North West Central, technically Darling Range

    NAT to gain: Kalgoorlie

    ALP 47, LIB 7, NAT 5

  18. That answer @James is no. I expect at the next federal election with Albo a status quo result federally for WA.

    Western Australia (and to a lesser extent Queensland) proves that Labor can be hopeless at a federal level but a powerhouse at the state level as electors are smart. Zak Kirkup has single-handedly turned already a run-of-the-mill landslide loss (think of labor in 2013) to a catastrophy, mainly because of energy policy and early concession which has made him appear weak.

    I imagine after he loses his seat tonight he will not be welcomed at any stage in the future back in the party and will struggle after the internal Liberal Party finger-pointing (and ass-kicking) commences.

  19. “I expect at the next federal election with Albo”

    I expect the next federal election will be without Albo.
    The opposition leader is usually shown in the news commenting on the PM’s mistakes. As most people take little interest in daily politics, Albo will be associated with Scumo in the minds of many voters.
    I expect that there will be a new Labor leader selected to take on PM Angus Taylor at the next federal election.

  20. I agree with newspoll. About 51 seats for Labor. The only 3 seats the Liberals hold is Vasse, Cottesloe and Carine, and the Nats only hold Moore, Central Wheatbelt and Roe. So I am predicting a tie. I believe whoever wins the most votes will take opposition should this outcome occur.

    The “Stop Labors total control” won’t have an effect. They are only saying that because they want to win government. If they lose party status I hope the government doesn’t grant them funding because Campbell Newman never granted Labor funding when they lost status in 2012. Expect this election to be called by 6:45PM. it’s over

  21. I would like to point out that Campbell Newman did in fact grant Labor funding after the Queensland election, 2012. They lowered the requirements for being an official parliamentary party from nine members to three, so that they were able to qualify for funding.

  22. “Expect this election to be called by 6:45PM. it’s over”

    6:42pm and Antony Green is indeed calling it before 6:45pm. Good call.

  23. Did I say Carine? Sorry I meant Churchlands Cottesloe and Vasse which seems likely to be the outcome, I defend my 3 seat call for the Nats

  24. It looks like they will only need 1 Taxi to transport the combined opposition for the next 4 years and a motorbike may be used for the 2 members of Vasse and Cottesloe for the Libs. Congratulations to Mia Davies on becoming opposition leader and Mark Mcgowan on this historic victory nor just in Australia but in the western world.

    I do not see Carine, Churchlands and Nedlands flipping back to the Liberals on pre-polls and postals because most people already knew who they were voting for weeks ago and if anything the late vote could be better than projected for Labor.

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