NSW redistribution – draft map and margins

10

It’s taken some time, but I have now finalised my map of the New South Wales draft electoral boundaries for the 2023 and 2027 state elections.

The boundaries were released in early November and I blogged about them at the time, but it’s taken me until now to finish my Google Earth map, which has allowed me to produce the interactive map below.

Green lines represent the 2023 boundaries, while red lines represent the 2015-2019 boundaries. You can toggle each layer on and off.

I’ve published the full list of seat margin estimates below the fold, and you can download the Google Earth map from my maps page.

Most of the changes took place in the Sydney region, with seats outside that area changed less dramatically. The seat of Bankstown was effectively abolished, with the name transferred to the neighbouring seat of Lakemba, so the name “Lakemba” has been retired. This seat was replaced with Leppington in the south-west of Sydney.

About 561,000 enrolled voters, out of a total of 5.3 million, have been shifted into a new seat. That’s 10.55% of the total electorate. 32 out of 93 electorates either lost no voters or a tiny number of voters. 27 electorates did not gain voters. 14 seats had no significant change.

I estimate that seven seats changed their name. It’s worth mentioning Castle Hill: while the seat has retained its name I believe that Kellyville is a successor to the old seat of Castle Hill and the name Castle Hill is now applied to a seat which has primarily replaced Baulkham Hills. Both seats were dramatically redrawn.

The seats that have changed the most by margin are Auburn and Parramatta. Auburn has become 4.3% better for Labor, thanks to the removal of the suburbs around Sydney Olympic Park and the addition of South Granville. Parramatta then becomes 4.3% worse for its Liberal incumbent Geoff Lee, with the inclusion of those areas around Olympic Park and the loss of the northern end of his seat to Epping. Lee’s margin is cut from a comfortable 10.6% to a much tighter 6.3%.

Conveniently the NSW Electoral Commission publishes two-candidate-preferred counts at the booth level for all match-ups in each seat, which means I have to do a lot less guesswork in seats where the Greens made the top two. But there was still four seats which required some estimates.

In Cabramatta and Dubbo, where independents came second in 2019, I simply ignored the extra areas added to each seat. In Sydney, I chose to add in the Greens vs Coalition counts for the areas added from Heffron, Newtown and Port Macquarie as a proxy for Alex Greenwich, which increased his margin by 0.2% compared to what it would look like if I ignored those areas. A substantial part of Newtown around Surry Hills was moved into Sydney and I suspect those voters will be quite supportive of Greenwich, so it was worth trying to factor in that change.

The seat of Murray, won in 2019 by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, has gained the former Jerilderie council area from Albury, where the Shooters did not run. I have ignored those voters and thus the margin is unchanged.

I should also note that Antony Green and William Bowe did their own estimates at the time the boundaries were released. Antony covering the most interesting seats and William providing two-party-preferred figures. I don’t see much of a change between our models. The biggest change is in Oatley where I give the Liberal Party 0.7% more than Antony, in Heffron and Hawkesbury where I give the Liberal Party 0.7% more than William, and in Cootamundra where I give the Nationals 2.1% less than William. William also gives Labor 1.1% more in the new seat of Leppington.

ElectorateOld boundariesNew boundariesIncumbent party
Albury16.015.9 LIB vs ALP
Auburn9.113.4 ALP vs LIB
Badgerys Creek (Mulgoa)11.39.7 LIB vs ALP
Ballina5.44.9 GRN vs NAT
Balmain10.010.0 GRN vs ALP
Bankstown (abolished)13.80.0 ALP vs LIB
Bankstown (Lakemba)22.420.5 ALP vs LIB
Barwon6.66.6 SFF vs NAT
Bathurst17.917.9 NAT vs ALP
Bega6.96.9 LIB vs ALP
Blacktown17.716.6 ALP vs LIB
Blue Mountains14.913.6 ALP vs LIB
Cabramatta12.912.0 ALP vs IND
Camden7.67.4 LIB vs ALP
Campbelltown17.016.3 ALP vs LIB
Canterbury13.015.6 ALP vs LIB
Castle Hill (Baulkham Hills)18.722.4 LIB vs ALP
Cessnock19.319.8 ALP vs NAT
Charlestown12.413.0 ALP vs NAT
Clarence14.514.5 NAT vs ALP
Coffs Harbour10.810.8 NAT vs ALP
Coogee1.62.1 ALP vs LIB
Cootamundra27.124.5 NAT vs ALP
Cronulla19.619.6 LIB vs ALP
Drummoyne15.013.7 LIB vs ALP
Dubbo2.02.0 NAT vs IND
East Hills0.50.1 LIB vs ALP
Epping12.410.9 LIB vs ALP
Fairfield17.916.6 ALP vs LIB
Gosford7.37.1 ALP vs LIB
Goulburn3.53.1 LIB vs ALP
Granville7.68.8 ALP vs LIB
Hawkesbury17.517.0 LIB vs ALP
Heathcote5.02.1 ALP vs LIB
Heffron15.115.0 ALP vs LIB
Holsworthy3.36.2 LIB vs ALP
Hornsby16.316.8 LIB vs ALP
Keira19.718.3 ALP vs LIB
Kellyville (Castle Hill)24.723.0 LIB vs ALP
Kiama12.012.0 LIB vs ALP
Kogarah1.80.3 ALP vs LIB
Lake Macquarie22.123.4 IND vs ALP
Lane Cove14.314.7 LIB vs ALP
Leppington (New seat)0.01.5 ALP vs LIB
Lismore1.31.8 ALP vs NAT
Liverpool16.717.6 ALP vs NAT
Londonderry6.53.9 ALP vs LIB
Macquarie Fields14.814.8 ALP vs LIB
Maitland13.214.7 ALP vs LIB
Manly12.913.1 LIB vs GRN
Maroubra8.58.4 ALP vs LIB
Miranda14.614.2 LIB vs ALP
Monaro11.611.6 NAT vs ALP
Mount Druitt16.418.2 ALP vs LIB
Murray3.53.5 SFF vs NAT
Myall Lakes9.29.2 NAT vs ALP
Newcastle17.717.6 ALP vs LIB
Newtown13.811.5 GRN vs ALP
North Shore11.111.1 LIB vs IND
Northern Tablelands32.833.3 NAT vs ALP
Oatley10.57.4 LIB vs ALP
Orange15.215.2 SFF vs NAT
Oxley14.915.4 NAT vs ALP
Parramatta10.66.3 LIB vs ALP
Penrith1.30.8 LIB vs ALP
Pittwater22.422.4 LIB vs ALP
Port Macquarie20.320.1 NAT vs ALP
Port Stephens5.85.8 ALP vs LIB
Prospect10.78.8 ALP vs LIB
Riverstone6.36.2 LIB vs ALP
Rockdale9.510.0 ALP vs LIB
Ryde9.09.0 LIB vs ALP
Shellharbour18.318.6 ALP vs LIB
South Coast10.610.6 LIB vs ALP
St Ives (Davidson)25.524.7 LIB vs ALP
Strathfield5.05.3 ALP vs LIB
Summer Hill16.517.1 ALP vs GRN
Swansea10.610.6 ALP vs LIB
Sydney11.813.4 IND vs LIB
Tamworth29.527.9 NAT vs ALP
Terrigal12.312.3 LIB vs ALP
The Entrance5.25.3 ALP vs LIB
Tweed5.05.0 NAT vs ALP
Upper Hunter2.60.6 ALP vs NAT
Vaucluse19.319.7 LIB vs GRN
Wagga Wagga15.515.5 IND vs NAT
Wahroonga (Ku-ring-gai)20.519.1 LIB vs ALP
Wakehurst21.021.8 LIB vs ALP
Wallsend25.425.9 ALP vs LIB
Willoughby21.020.7 LIB vs ALP
Winston Hills (Seven Hills)6.45.4 LIB vs ALP
Wollondilly13.814.2 LIB vs ALP
Wollongong21.422.4 ALP vs LIB
Wyong12.412.8 ALP vs LIB
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10 COMMENTS

  1. There’s no way the ALP lose Leppington in 2023 even on a 1% margin, Because the margins don’t take into account Labour has done poorly in the past 3 state elections. And no Liberal government has won a 4th term (Askin couldn’t do it) so I expect that to have a healthy swing to Labour in 2023. Kogarah isn’t in play either, the reason it was close last time was because of the stealing Migrant jobs comment by Daley.

  2. And also, under the new leader of Eric Willis, the Liberals were just short of winning a fifth term in 1976.

  3. Ah Daniel you are back with your wildly optimistic projections. LP wins Leppington – massive demographic changes in an area benefiting enormously from infrastructure around 2nd airport.
    Gladys v Jodi really isn’t a fair fight, but I look forward to you and your comrade Mick Quinlivan coming in here telling us how the ALP will win Ryde, Oatley, Kiama etc etc.

  4. The boundaries under discussion are a draft. Assuming that these become the gazetted boundaries, Labor would require a uniform swing of 6.7% to achieve the 54.7% tpp required to win a majority.
    NSW Labor has only achieved that level at 4 elections in the last 60 years. None of these were from opposition.

    Mod Lib, it is highly unlikely that Gladys will be contesting the next state election and I doubt that Jodi will be Labor leader heading into that election. You are correct on one thing – the next NSW election will not be a fair contest.

  5. Mick – you kept wanting the same numbers for the last election. Kiama is now an 11pc seat. Probably time to turn your energy (and obsession) somewhere else. I hear sudoku can be quite therapeutic.

  6. On these boundaries Labor should win Leppington pretty easily. It reminds me of Macarthur and Burt when they were last redistributed, those seats had Liberal leaning margins on paper but Labor ended up winning with very large swings.

    As for the party leaders, I’d be surprised if they were still there. Berejiklian seems to be a reasonable operator although there are some inconstitancies around her dealings with Daryl Maguire which probably need some clearing up, in fact using ignorance as a means to justify innocence really doesn’t cut it.
    As for McKay, she seems pretty lacklustre and not particularly inspiring, only winning the leadership because she was the least worst option.

    The main problem for Labor is that they would need to win seats with swings over 7% which won’t with McKay as leader, and with no apparent successor and a dearth of talent.

  7. there could be a hung parliament with a much smaller swing………. most 3rd party are naturally more left aligned……….. and sff are on horrible terms with the libs.

  8. I am not at all convinced that demographic changes in Leppington district will secure the seat for the Liberal Party. This demographic is unpredictable, and if anything tends to be split 50-50 between Labor and the Liberals. The Liberals have taken a lot of flak concerning infrastructure, schools, and hospitals in developing suburbs. If these boundaries are confirmed, I expect Leppington to be a tight contest in 2023.

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