QLD 2020 – election night live


10:25pm – I’m going to switch off now. I’ll be recording a podcast in the morning and will hope to get the episode up later in the day. I’m sure there’ll be further analysis next week, but that’s it for now.

10:05pm – Some recent results from north Queensland seats confirm that Labor looks set to hold all their seats in that region, and with that their majority. They are currently leading in a handful of LNP seats in the south-east which will likely give them an increased majority, even if they lose Cooper and McConnel.

9:10pm – So if we stopped the clock here and just took the election day vote, Labor would have won a slightly increased majority with the Greens also picking up a second seat. But in the next few hours we will be seeing a lot of postal and pre-poll votes, and that is what will tell us if this trend will continue.

8:06pm – There’s just not a lot to hold on to. At the moment the overall picture looks like Labor slightly increasing their majority, but there’s a lot of seats still in play, and the whole picture could be overturned when we get more of the pre-poll votes in.

7:39pm – It’s far too early to say anything definitive, but I think Labor is making more gains than they are losing.

7:26pm – We’re seeing some early evidence that Labor will be trading some northern seats for some southern LNP seats. Labor is currently leading in marginal LNP seats Pumicestone, Chatsworth, Caloundra and Coomera, all in the south-east, while the LNP is leading in Townsville and Barron River.

7:18pm – At the moment the only seat which the ABC has called as changing hands is Townsville, which was Labor’s most marginal seat. That should make Labor nervous about the neighbouring seats of Mundingburra and Thuringowa.

6:56pm – We are starting to get some early figures. Michael Berkman is looking good in Maiwar – he is up 11% on primary votes, with Labor down 10%. With no risk of falling behind Labor, he should win.

6:00pm – Polls have just closed in Queensland. Join me as I follow along with the results as they come in over the next few hours.

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  1. Cook will be interesting, it’s probably too early to call it. There’s a lot of booths in the electorate similar to remote NT electorates that heavily favour Labor.

    Cooper has had 15% Green swing, and could well win it, depends whether Labor or LNP come in second.

  2. Looks like a State wide collapse of the One Nation vote. It will be interesting to see how Pauline spins the result.

  3. Ben
    I agree with your comment at 7:39ALP gaining more than they are losing. I am prepared to state at 7.45 that ALP have won seat.

  4. Pine rivers was considered a key seat yet the LNP are failing. Perhaps this is because of the Pro-Life extremist position of the LNP candidate. The reason this is close because of the LNP’s and Cherish life’s so called “Infanticide” campaign. These are the same people who invaded abortion clinics under Joh’s watch. Disgracful. Extremely sexist and anti-women

  5. Looking increasingly likely the ALP will hold Barron River, Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra. Nobody here – including myself – expected this. Rather than consigning the ALP into minority or coalition government, northern Queensland will deliver the ALP a third term.

  6. The LNP recommended preferences to the Greens over Labor in most seats. This will most likely be consequential in McConnell, Cooper and Greenslopes.

    The Greens just need to be in the top 2 in these electorates for them to be in with a chance.

  7. In the end though, voters direct preferences. Not parties.

    If any party wins seats on preferences, that reflects broad support across a wide spectrum of the electorate, not a grubby backroom deal or misplaced tactical ploy.

  8. That is true, I myself always vote the same way but I rarely follow the htv, which would be a common occurrence from those who are politically engaged.
    Although for those who generally vote a particular way but are not engaged, they tend to follow the htv card of their party of choice.
    In the end it does make a difference, but the Greens would be lucky to get 40% of Liberal preferences when their voters are directed to do so.

  9. McConnel now looks like it isn’t going anywhere, but my expectations for the swing in Cooper might just’ve been greatly exceeded. 32.4% counted – and the Greens are leading on primary! Meanwhile in Maiwar, Berkman’s currently over 40%. They’ll be celebrating hard.

    Aspley and Mansfield seem to have shored up for Labor, but I’m sure we’ll all be disappointed by the Oodgeroo results so far – Richardson is only on about 20% and the Labor candidate is on 28%.

    ABC has Cynthia Lui at something like 47% primary in Cook now, so I think she isn’t going anywhere.

    North Qld First do seem to have have picked up a fair bit of that former One Nation vote that’s going around. Won’t get them anything of course.

  10. Outstanding… This is a victory for Labor tonight. Despite what all the naysayers said, the politics of negativity has lost again and you are going to hear allot of blame game and negative talk, well allow them to complain when we are working hard for you to keep you SAFE! Say no to opening the border to NSW and allow an outbreak to happen again

    Bring on Crusifini or whatever his name is in 2024 or Tim Mander. Looking forward to be here celebrating another ALP victory of 4 years time. While we don’t know whether it is a majority. ALP + GRN is a progressive majority, the progressive alliance has won again and proves socialism can win here in QLD.

  11. Looking increasingly like a Labor majority government, so congratulations to Labor.

    As a Greens supporter frankly I was expecting better, especially in McConnel. Clayfield was a bit of a disaster. The other target seats however clearly saw big swings in the Greens’ favour, especially in Cooper. That demonstrates very clearly that there are an awful lot of soft Labor, wet tories and other swing voters throughout the region who are very receptive and persuadable to progressive change- it’s just a matter of reaching out to them. That bodes well for federal election prospects in Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith.

    It’s also implicitly a lesson about the importance of candidate quality and the fundamentals of campaign organisation. I think the Greens supporters who’ve read my posts on here know what I mean, so I won’t re-litigate it here. But when it comes time for preselection, think very, very carefully about who you nominate.

  12. Called it a bit early in Cook. Lui got the sophomore swing as I expected and should win comfortably. The big story here is the KAP emerging as a clear challenger to the seat moving forward.

    Barron River is a surprise. The LNP threw everything at this seat. They will be very disappointed they did not win. As I said elsewhere, Linda Cooper would have been a very good local member. This is a great result for Craig Crawford and the ALP.

    Cairns. Mulgrave, Hill, Tragear and Mirani went much as expected.

    Huge swing to KAP in Hinchinbrook. This has moved firmly out of the LNP’s sphere of influence. This will be Dametto’s seat until he retires.

    Townsville and Thuringowa are currently set for the ALP, which I did not expect. I called the ALP to win Mundingburra but had very little confidence in my own call. For the ALP to win all three seats in Townsville is frankly astounding. It’s a strong rebuke of the LNP.

    Burdekin was potentially going to head to the KAP but a strong swing to the local member in the end sees the seat remain the most northerly seat that the LNP holds.

    Whitsunday returns to the LNP and NQ First fades into obscurity. They surely will not be around in 2024.

    Mackay holds onto Labor. Much as expected

    One Nation fizzles out in Rocky and Keppel.

    See you all in 2024.

  13. Certainly it is time for LNP to throw the nightly spewer into political insignificance.
    The LNP should be totally ashamed of themselves for electing Greens.
    The LNP achieved something I thought absolutely impossible me voting ALP.

    If Coalition want my vote they need to go back to the Joh era and stop pandering to leftist social policies.
    I want a return to Menzian economics and an end to neo-liberalism.

  14. Furtive Lawngnome “an awful lot of wet Tories” does not exactly fit this election result. The ssumption that Tory wets are in someway linked to the inner city brothel zone is false. Most of the wet Tory’s are the elder supporters of traditional Australian economics. Concilliation and arbitration, tarifff protection , government intervention in economy, and natural monopolies in government ownership. These individuals are generally in KAP, DLP, National Party and UAP. Socially conservative but distribtist economically. We will be by principles of social justice placing hate parties and eco fascists last on our ballot papers.

  15. Not that surprised at result, though wasn’t expecting ALP to increase their majority, was expecting small majority or minority.

    While a lot of the campaigning wasn’t on Covid, I think border closures helped deliver the regions to ALP. Regional Queensland was one of the best places in the world to be during the pandemic. With state borders closed, secondary tourists town (Yeppoon, Hervey Bay etc) are booming with intraQueensland tourists that would otherwise travel interstate or internationally, so the LNP message of crippled tourism isn’t resonating in those areas like it might be in Cairns or Gold Coast. In my seat of Keppel, I couldn’t see ALP losing even with odds against them, though I thought one nation might have pulled off an upset.

  16. Most people’s guesses were too high for minor parties (including mine). It looks like 3 KAP, 2 Green, 1 One Nation and 1 Ind, although Oodgeroo (Ind) and Cook (KAP) might throw up a surprise yet. Crossbench: 6, maybe up to 8.

    KAP consolidated their vote big time in Hinchinbrook, but didn’t come close in Burdekin or Thuringowa. Cook is still a vague possibility, but they’re a long way behind. All three seats they went in with now have margins around 20% – that’s their bulwark. Maybe in 2024 the minor right vote will be less splintered.

    The Greens had the opposite problem: beyond the two they’ve won, there was a bundle where they got over 20% but missed the 2pp cut. Particularly Cooper, where they came third with 30% – that must’ve stung. They topped the primary vote in both Maiwar and South Brisbane, so anyone who sulks about them only getting up on LNP preferences is a bitter partisan.

    One Nation got pwned, with the single exception of Mirani, where Stephen Andrew is obviously good at being the local pollie. Some of their vote went to KAP in the north, but largely to the majors – not enough to LNP to put them anywhere near Keppel or Maryborough.

    Independents… apart from Noosa and Oodgeroo, not much to report. A few got 10%-ish (Macalister, Hervey Bay, Lockyer).

  17. My guesses were pretty right in Brisbane, but way off in the North.

    Everyone was saying that the people were out with baseball bats for Labor so I assumed that their reaction would be to go to Katter. I also assumed most One nation would swing Katter.In reality there was no such backlash and the One nation voters mostly went back to home base – some to LNP, some to Labor and write a few to Katter but not enough.

    As for the Greens I was right about not getting across the line in McConnel, obviously way out with Mogill (but I gather greens had chosen a totally inappropriate candidate for THAT seat.

    Copper is still a bit in doubt, but i assume that postals will increase the margin between LNP and greens so it will stay Labor. This is a very good thing I think because having now seen the Greens lady in person I think she would make a terrible local member. Lacks the touch.

  18. Furtive
    It was not “people” who said that the electorate were out for Labor Party with baseball bats but rather LNP people.
    One aspect that worries me about this election was the willingness of some activists to swallow hook line and sinker the clap trap that comes out of US conspiracy sites. Ask then a question and you become part of conspiracy.
    If Palaszczuk victory tells us anything it is that ALP and LNP can only win when they capture middle ground. Neither ALP nor Coalition can win by capturing the fringes. Major parties have a choice stand up to those on fringes be they brothel zone pagans or crypto fascist racists.
    The LNP and other parties decision to preference extremists at the expense of moderates back fired on them. Deals made with extremists nearly always fail . TheLNP have more in common with ALP than they do with Ashby-Hanson or the Greens. Their preference arrangements should reflect this.We need somehow to curb the excesses of Clive Palmer’s million dollars campaigns. Limits on total campaign with penalty including mandatory de registration of party seems only solution. We need candidates answering questions not just shouting slogans at each other.
    It should be remembered that ALP won by taking a nuanced approach to coal and rejecting a death tax. This should be their policy in government. If Adani and Acland meet current legislated environmental standards thy should get go ahead. The issue of lock down is a medical one and at least for next six months advice of Chief Medical Officer should be followed. In the interests of good government this advice should be made available to opposition on understanding that only government will be criticised if they do not follow advice.
    Regional Queensland needs a fair go.
    The Katter campaign for splitting state has clearly failed but the underlying causes of this campaign need to be addressed.

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