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Final ~
12 ALP
11 LIB
2 GRN
(Status Quo) Which is a rare distinction in any parliamentary system if it plays out
I am keeping eye on Ohariu election as that is unpredictable one. It used to be a stronghold of United party which the sole mp retired last election. Labour won that with narrow margin with Jessica Hammond of The Opportunity Party came third.
I reckon it is going to be a close race between Labour, National and TOP, which may enter parliament for first time, as TOP really put a lot of resources in that electorate.
My predication on 26 September was:
13 Labor seat turns Labor
2 Greens
10 Liberal
Regardless how it falls it should be a Labor victory, at the end of the day it will be at least a majority left Government.
My prediction today is:
12 Labor
3 Greens
10 Liberal
The change in seat will be Kurrijong and will be either Labor or Greens
@Daniel earlier this year in the Brisbane City Council elections not a single seat changed hands.
I think, out on a limb here,
ALP – 12
Lib – 8
GRN – 5
Greens do well enough to win an additional seat in all electorates but Yerrabi.
In Ginninderra it would usually be at Labor’s expense, but I think Liberals will lose votes in Ginninderra to Belco party, who don’t do well enough to win their own, and whose votes will exhaust. The Ginninderra effect will see Labors 3 incumbents home over the 2nd Liberal.
Intra party I think Taimus Werner Gibbings might knock off an incumbent in Brindabella but that’s probably it. Pentony might outpoll Burch in Kurrajong but I have the Liberals losing their 2nd seat (to Greens but Labor is a possibility).
Just wait Daniel and Anton we should know the results in 12 hours time for this provincial territory election.
To clarify I think they’ll retain Murrumbidgee (which I consider notionally Liberal from the redistribution)
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