12:22am – A rush of pre-poll votes has just been added to the system. Labor suffered a 4.1% swing at Jerrabomberra and a 3% swing at Queanbeyan, but actually increased their vote by 0.4% at Queanbeyan City. Labor also won majorities at the three small Canberra pre-poll booths.
We are now just waiting for Jindabyne pre-poll (1700 votes), Narooma pre-poll (3500 votes) and the remaining postal votes. A guess I’ve seen is that there would be about another 8000 postal votes.
McBain now leads by 2020 votes, so Kotvojs would need over 57% of the remaining vote to win. It’s looking like Labor has won.
11:30pm – I’m going to call it a night here. Those postal vote figures are very encouraging for Labor. While it is possible other samples might be worse, it’s very good for them to crack 49% on the postal vote, compared to barely making 43% in 2019. It’s worth bearing in mind that Labor ran a much bigger postal vote campaign this year, and there may have also been some change in the make-up of who casts a postal vote.
I would ideally like to see the pre-poll votes particularly from Queanbeyan, Jerrabomberra and Queanbeyan City before calling things, but Labor is clearly in the front now. Labor now leads by about 1800 votes, with about 21,000 more pre-poll votes and up to 11,000 more postal votes yet to be counted.
Hopefully tomorrow morning we’ll have most of the pre-poll votes counted and things will be much clearer.
11:19pm – The figures haven’t been included in the counts so far, but the AEC just tweeted a preliminary postal vote figure for election night. The count has Liberal candidate Kotvojs leading Labor candidate McBain by just 70 votes, 2464-2394. That’s 50.7% for the Liberal Party. With possibly up to 11,000 more postal votes to be counted later. It’s not as good a result as the Liberal Party would want.
11:05pm – What’s left to be counted? So far we’ve got two-party-preferred figures from 5/14 pre-poll centres. These 14 centres accounted for 43,684 votes, and about half of those votes were cast in the nine booths yet to report. Those booths yet to report include three large booths in the Queanbeyan area. Queanbeyan, Queanbeyan City and Jerrabomberra are worth over 15,000 votes. We have primary votes from Queanbeyan and Jerrabomberra so hopefully the 2PP count isn’t too far away.
In addition, we are still waiting for results from the three Canberra pre-poll booths and the divisional office, which are only worth about 1000 votes. We are also waiting for Narooma (3500 votes) and Jindabyne (1700 votes).
11:01pm – Cooma pre-poll: 2.5% swing to the Liberal Party. This is a much smaller swing than we saw on election day in the surrounding area.
10:58pm – And now Yass pre-poll has reported it’s 2PP count, Labor gained a 1.7% swing.
10:47pm – We also have primary vote figures from two pre-poll centres in the Queanbeyan area. Labor’s primary vote dropped by 6.2% at Jerrabomberra, which is similar to the swing there on election day. They also suffered an 8% swing at Queanbeyan pre-poll,
10:43pm – Labor has won 55.1% of the two-party-preferred vote at the Bega pre-poll, a swing of 0.8%. Labor’s Kristy McBain is currently sitting on 52.6% of the two-party-preferred vote.
10:32pm – We’re starting to get pre-poll 2PP figures. Labor gained 53.5% at Merimbula, a swing of 9.4%. They only gained 33% at Tumut pre-poll, a swing of 3% to the Liberal Party (which is a more modest swing in the neighbouring election-day booths).
10:03pm – Labor has suffered a 3.6% primary vote swing at the Yass pre-poll centre, which is a smaller swing than in two of the three Yass election-day booths.
10:01pm – As a comparison, the Labor primary vote went up 7.3% at Merimbula and 20.6% at Merimbula Central. They gained swings in the Bega election-day booths that are comparable to the 1.3% pre-poll swing.
9:58pm – We’ve got primary votes from the pre-poll centres in Bega and Merimbula. Labor gained a 1.3% swing in Bega, and a 6.7% swing in Merimbula. These are both good but it’s worth bearing in mind that both booths are in the east of the seat, which has produced the strongest swings for Labor.
9:52pm – So we now have results for all 71 polling places used today, but we don’t have any results yet for the pre-poll or postal votes. We had about 44,000 votes cast today as ordinary votes (including almost 3000 informal votes), but we are expecting almost exactly the same number of votes as pre-poll votes.
We don’t know how many postal votes have been cast, but we know quite precisely how many pre-poll votes were issued at each pre-poll centre. So we can compare where those pre-poll votes are expected to come from, and how that compares to the election-day result.
I have divided the seat into the same five regions I used for my election guide.
Labor gained a solid 3.3% swing in the east (ie. the coastal region), and much smaller swings in the south and west, which are the areas that the Liberal Party won in 2019.
Labor lost 1.6-1.7% in both the north (including Yass and the former Palerang council area) and the Queanbeyan urban area.
The pre-poll votes are not distributed in the same pattern. There are a lot less pre-poll votes cast in the north of the seat, and relatively more in Queanbeyan. I assume a lot of those voters from places like Bungendore went in to Queanbeyan to cast a pre-poll vote. There were also 943 pre-poll votes cast at three centres in Canberra.
Overall, almost 22,000 votes were cast on election day in regions where Labor gained a swing, while just over 22,000 were cast in regions where the Liberal Party gained a swing.
There are relatively more pre-poll votes in areas which swung to Labor: about 23,000 in the east, south and west, compared to about 19,000 in the north and Queanbeyan.
Overall this doesn’t look decisive: it suggests that Labor might do a little bit better than expected, but there is not a huge bias in terms of where these votes were cast. There is more than enough votes to put either side over the top.
|Region||Labor 2PP||Labor 2PP 2019||Swing to ALP||Ordinary votes||Pre-poll votes|
9:42pm – We now have two-party-preferred figures from all 71 ordinary booths, and the Liberal Party has gained a swing of 0.3%. In raw terms, Labor is on 52.8% of the two-party-preferred vote, but in a typical election you would expect that lead to diminish as the special votes come in.
9:22pm – Sorry for my absence – I’m trying to get some raw booth figures so we can get a sense of the trend before pre-poll reports. We now have 2PP counts from all but two ordinary booths and the swing to the Liberal Party is 0.3%.
8:55pm – We now have 67/71 ordinary election-day booths and the swing has flipped, with the Liberal Party gaining a swing of 0.3%.
8:41pm – On average the booths where the Liberals are gaining swings are a bit bigger than Labor booths. Labor has gained a swing in 31/60 booths, worth 16,481 total votes. The 29 booths swinging to the Liberals are worth almost 21k votes. In particular there’s a gap in Queanbeyan. Five booths have swung to Labor, and five to the Liberal Party, but the Liberal-swinging booths make up about 3/4 of the total vote counted so far.
8:35pm – The seventy booths which have reported primary votes recorded 53,022 votes in 2019, but this time around they’ve reported just 43,602. Just one ordinary booth is yet to report any results at all (Braidwood). So it looks like about 10,000 less ordinary election day votes will have been counted.
8:31pm – We now have two-party-preferred votes in 60 booths, and there are just eleven which are yet to report. The AEC expected about 45,000 ordinary votes across the election-day booths and about 39,000 of those expected votes were booths which have reported. Those booths have actually reported just under 37,500 votes.
8:27pm – The results we have seen are not entirely concentrated in small booths. Classifying booths by the number of votes expected by the AEC, there are 34 booths expecting over 1000 votes, and 14/34 have reported. 14/18 booths with 500-1000 turnout have reported, and 25/49 small booths (under 500 votes).
8:22pm – So far (still on the same 53 booths), Labor has gained a swing in 31, and the Liberal Party in 22. They are evenly distributed across the seat. Labor has gained a swing in a majority of booths in the north, east, west, and in Queanbeyan. The Liberals have gained swings in 7 out of 11 booths in the south (the Snowy Monaro region).
8:17pm – There’s a lot more data now and I’m working on a more detailed analysis, but just as a quick summary, we have preference counts from 53 booths, and Labor is up 0.6% across those booths.
7:15pm – 29 booths have reported primary votes and 13 booths have reported two-candidate-preferred counts, and Antony Green is projecting a 2.1% swing to Labor after preferences. But there’s still a lot of booths to go. When I get a minute I’ll do an analysis of the swings by region to see if that tells us more about what is going on. At the moment you’d rather be Labor than Liberal but it’s not close to decisive.
6:35pm – We have one tiny booth: Bowning, just outside of Yass. 164 votes have been cast, and Labor has gained a 0.2% swing after preferences from 39.1% to 39.3%. Far too small to tell us anything.
6:03pm – When I wrote this morning’s post we didn’t know what the final pre-poll count. In the end 6920 people voted on the last day, for a total of 43,684 across the entire voting period. This compares to 44,015 in 2019, so it’s a very slight decline, but will likely be a larger proportion of the total when you factor in a likely decline in turnout.
6:00pm – Polls have just closed in Eden-Monaro. I’ll be covering the results tonight, although caring responsibilities mean the analysis will be light-on before 8pm. We’re expecting a large volume of postal votes, many of which won’t be counted tonight, and that will likely delay a result. We’re also expecting around 40,000 pre-poll votes which will come in later in the night.