I was planning a deeper analysis looking at the proportion of votes which have reported, and what it tells us about how low the turnout was on election day but unfortunately I’ve had some issues with the data coming out of the ECQ, so I’m going to keep this post a bit simpler as a summary of what we know.
It looks likely that Adrian Schrinner has been elected to his own term as lord mayor, a fifth term in a row for the Liberal National Party. His primary vote has been climbing as more votes have reported, and he now sits on 47.2% of the primary vote, with Labor’s Pat Condren trailing on 31.1%. This translates into a swing of 6.3% against the LNP and 0.9% against Labor.
The Greens appear to have performed well all across this election, which was somewhat obscured by the technical difficulties in election results last night and a presumption that some results were skewed early on. The Greens lord mayoral candidate Kath Angus is currently on 15.6%, a swing of 5.4% compared to 2016.
About 60% of turnout has been counted so far in the mayoral race, and the sample is fairly even across the city (although Calamvale is very underrepresented in the sample).
We don’t have a preference count yet but it looks certain that Schrinner will win with a reduced majority.
The Greens also did well in a number of key wards. Sitting Greens councillor Jonathan Sri is sitting on 48% of the primary vote: a swing of 15%. We don’t have a preference count but he should have no trouble clearing the 50% barrier.
The Greens also gained a large swing in Paddington ward, which overlaps with the Greens state seat of Maiwar. Donna Burns gained a 10.9% swing. We will need the preference count to know who wins here – the ABC’s preference estimates predict the race is too close to call. The Greens have also moved into second place in the Central ward but will need to do well on preferences to win.
At the moment the LNP has won twelve wards, Labor has won five and others have won two. This leaves seven in play.
Apart from Paddington, there are six other contests still not decided.
The ABC has the LNP leading in Bracken Ridge, Central, Holland Park and Northgate, while Labor is leading in Calamvale and Enoggera, but it’s important to emphasise that these are all based on preference estimates: we still don’t have preference flows in any of these seats. We are also still missing most pre-poll figures and the postal votes are yet to be counted.
These early votes make up a massive part of the electorate, and we don’t know how different they will look in the current environment. It’s conceivable they could shift some of these races back to the LNP.
We also don’t know what impact the lack of how-to-votes will have on preference estimates, but there have been reports of Greens preference flows to Labor in Currumbin being weaker than you would expect in such a race.
If those seven undecided wards all go to the leading party that will result in a council with two more Labor councillors than the current council, and will leave Labor slightly closer to taking control of the council, but won’t materially impact on the LNP’s grip on power.
I will return to this topic once we have more information, later in the week.