Queensland elections – election night live

37

7:07am – Overall we are seeing a trend of swings against the LNP and to the Greens, with Labor gaining in some places and losing in others. The Greens in particular appear to have strengthened their position in the inner-city wards of Coorparoo, Paddington and The Gabba, where it looks likely that Jonathan Sri will be re-elected with a much bigger vote. I should warn, however, that all these figures are very preliminary and do not include preference counts. We don’t know how the remaining postal and pre-poll votes might vary from the election day vote.

7:05am – We have some primary votes from each council ward but without preference counts and without comparing where the booths have come from it’s hard to compare. I’ll do some work on this later today. For the eight wards I’m most interested in, this is the current situation:

  • Coorparoo – With 14.53% counted, LNP is down 4.3%, Labor down 3.4%, Greens up 10.2%. Very small sample so I would want to see more.
  • Doboy – With 13.16% counted, the LNP is on 53.5% in a two-horse race.
  • Enoggera – With 23.18% counted, the LNP is down 7.2%, Labor is up 1.9%, Greens are up 0.7%.
  • Holland Park – With 21.26% counted, the LNP is down 4.5%, Labor is down 4.6%, the Greens are up 9.6%.
  • Northgate – With 24.32% counted, the LNP is down 3.3%, Labor is up 0.3%, Greens are up 2.9%.
  • Paddington – With 27.89% counted, the LNP is down 5.4%, the Greens are up 13.7%, Labor is down 8.4%.
  • The Gabba – With 38.62% counted, the Greens are up 16.2% to almost 49%, Labor is down 4.1%, the LNP is down 9.6%.
  • The Gap – With 22.09% counted, the LNP is down 2.2%, Labor is down 2.4%, the Greens are up 3.8%.

6:48am – Over 40% has been counted for lord mayor of Brisbane and there appears to have been a swing of about 8% away from the LNP, but none of that has boosted the Labor vote. The Greens are still doing quite well, polling over 15%. It’s not clear if the data is skewed to particular areas. I’ll look into that for the post later today.

6:45am – We have 56% of the vote counted in Bundamba and it looks similar to where we were last night. Labor is about 15 points clear of One Nation so should win on Greens preferences.

6:41am – We have close to 40% of the results in Currumbin now, and the LNP leads Labor by about 3%. Antony Green reports that party scrutineers have received a paper version of two-candidate-preferred results with the LNP “a handful” of votes ahead. There are a lot of postals and pre-polls to come and it seems likely they will favour the LNP, so they are favourites here, but those postals and pre-polls may not behave the same as always due to the pandemic so I’d want to wait and see.

6:35am – I’m just coming back here with a few updates on what we’ve learnt overnight. I won’t be liveblogging today but will return with a post this evening.

9:02pm – I’m going to be stopping the liveblog here. I’ll return tomorrow afternoon with an update. We now have almost 11% of the primary vote for the Brisbane lord mayor’s race and it still appears to have a very high Greens vote – I’m still assuming this is due to the selection of booths and doesn’t reflect a final result. It does look likely that Labor will retain Bundamba but we have not gained any extra data in quite some time. There appears to be a problem with the Currumbin count. Elsewhere it looks very clear that Tom Tate will be re-elected as mayor of the Gold Coast.

8:31pm – We’re really not getting very much. I’ll keep checking in, but expect more tomorrow.

8:20pm – There appears to be a problem with the Currumbin voting results so I wouldn’t take the small number of votes recorded there too seriously.

8:16pm – With almost 35% counted in Bundamba, Labor’s Lance McCallum has slightly increased his primary vote lead over One Nation: 42.3% to 27.4%. He’s looking pretty good here.

8:14pm – Almost 20,000 votes have been counted for mayor of the Gold Coast and Tom Tate is still above 50%.

8:13pm – So we now have a lot more data for the Brisbane lord mayoral race. Adrian Schrinner is currently leading on 43.4%, with Labor’s Pat Condren on 30.4%, and the Greens’ Kath Angus on 18.7%. This is off a sample of almost 6% which appears to lean towards the best Greens areas in the western suburbs, so it’s too early to say. At the moment this is a swing of about 10% away from the LNP and a small swing against Labor.

7:46pm – We won’t be getting any preference counts tonight for lord mayoral and council races in Brisbane (I assume the same is true in other councils) so we may be able to call races where the leading candidate is far out in front but close races won’t be decided. We should expect preference counts in Bundamba and Currumbin.

7:45pm – It will be quite some time before we have results that are sufficiently complete and details to know exactly how many people voted using each method in this election, but I put up a post this afternoon analysing how we should expect a massive crash in the number of people voting on election day. Since posting this I have heard from a number of people on the ground that a two-thirds drop in attendances sounds plausible.

7:42pm – Incumbent Gold Coast mayor Tom Tate is well out in front with 53.6% of the primary vote, with his main rival Mona Hecke a distant second on 24.4%, off almost 10,000 votes, or 2.8% of the total. This count is still too early but he is in a good position.

7:41pm – We do have over 1% counted for three other big city mayoralties. Teresa Harding is well out in front with 43% in Ipswich (off a sample of 1671 votes). 2345 votes have been reported in Moreton Bay and Peter Flannery is narrowly in the lead with 26%, with Adrian Raedel and Chris Thompson both over 20%.

7:39pm – Meanwhile just 460 votes have been reported for the Brisbane lord mayoralty.

7:38pm – The vote count is very early in the City of Brisbane. I’m following eight wards tonight (Doboy, Northgate, Coorparoo, Holland Park, The Gap, Enoggera, Paddington and The Gabba) and we only have vote counts from one of them. We only have 62 votes in Paddington so I won’t bother describing that count further. This looks likely to be a slow count.

7:30pm – The number of votes in Currumbin is much smaller – only about 3.5%. At the moment LNP candidate Laura Gerber is leading with 47.9% ahead of Labor’s Kaylee Campradt on 37.6% but the numbers are very small.

7:28pm – We have small numbers of votes reporting from the two state by-elections. In Bundamba, Labor’s Lance McCallum is well out in front with just over 25% counted, with 41.9%. One Nation’s Sharon Bell is in second place on 28.2% while the LNP and the Greens are both in the mid-teens. We don’t have any preferences, but on those numbers it’s very likely Labor would win.

6:00pm – Polls have just closed in the Queensland council elections. I’ll be live-blogging tonight, although it’s worth noting that a very high rate of pre-poll and postal voting means we will likely need to wait to know who is winning close races.

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37 COMMENTS

  1. At the booth I am at they have allowed 1 scrutineer in from each party, but kicked them out after the ballot box opening.

  2. Almost 2 hours since the polls closed and still no results reported. Does anyone know if the ECQ is actually counting any votes tonight?

  3. According to Antony Green, this is the official procedure, this election.

    “Counting of results today will be conducted under very different rules. Scrutineers are allowed into the polling place to see the ballot boxes opened and votes tipped out, but they are not allowed to observe the count. They must leave the polling place, and may only return after the count is completed to observe the sealing of the packaging that contains the completed ballot papers, unused ballot papers and administrative paperwork surrounding the conduct of the polling place. These votes will be re-counted starting from Sunday when scrutineers will have an opportunity to observe the count.”

    https://antonygreen.com.au/running-post-on-2020-brisbane-city-council-elections-and-bundamba-and-currumbin-state-by-elections/

  4. The agreement with ECQ one scrutineer for ballot opening and sealing tonight
    But allowed in tomorrow for second counts tomorrow
    Half of the contests will be over tonight many of the others wont be known this side of Easter.

  5. 6:59pm AEST

    @Zia

    We are not on daylight savings – it has only been 1 hour since the polls closed.

  6. It might be early days but there seems to be a seismic shift to Labor, Early days but i have high hopes Labor can win City hall and maybe even capture the Mayors office, It will be tight either way, But Labor is recording 10% swings in several wards even tipping some narrowly into their favour, Pre-polls could put the LNP narrowly back ahead in those if by the end of the night Labor is ahead in some, But this would be an excellent result for Labor since the LNP have won landslides 3 election’s in a row.

  7. Quite a large informal vote in Bundamba – nearly 14%. Don’t know if that locals protesting at the treatment of the former member, or confusion with the different voting systems for Council happening at the same time.

  8. I am not sure swings have any meaning tonight because so many people prepolled. the results will be late because there are thousands to count in prepolls – 11000 in one booth I am told

  9. LNP scrutineers have reported Adrian Schrinner is highly likely to win the mayoral race – he’s even announced it on Facebook. LNP also very confident in winning ward majority at this stage.

  10. LNP scrutineers have confirmed it is highly likely Adrian Schrinner has won the mayoral race – he’s so confident he’s announced it on his facebook. LNP are also very confident at returning a majoirty in wards at this stage.

  11. Andrew Bartlett is correct informal vote up even though Council voluntary voting procedure should redsult in lowest informal vote possible. Therefore we have to assume that most of informal vote is deliberate rather than error.

    Lack of Political parties in non metro Council election makes task of voting to complicated for voters. Lack of party endorsement:
    🔵encourages candidates who would never get party endorsement.
    🔵discourages decent platforms developments
    🔵has candidates running on a shoestring with very few issuing anything other “I am a nice boy/ girl pamphlets”
    🔵 direct election of mayors encourages precisely the wrong type of person to stand as mayor Presidential rather than Collegiate

    I will have a look at informal voting over next few days and compare to results from
    More complicated State and Federal voting results.

    I may disagree totally with the Greens but I know what they stand for. Similarly with ALP and LNP but in truth of the candidates standing in Moreton Bay especially for Councillor positions Outside my own Division I have knowledge of only a small percentage. I doubt if 1 in 20 of them have ever looked at Local Government election, one I came across during election thought Council ran hospitals. They have opinions about everything but ask them for solutions ( let alone cost of solutions) and they are struggling for air.

  12. Still very confused as to why Labor gave up on compulsory preferential at the last minute. Predicting there’ll be several wards in Brisbane where the LNP survives on exhausted Labor and/or Greens votes (including potentially the Lord Mayoral race).

  13. Yes, regardless of where the final counts end up, seems very likely the Libs will keep some seats because Labor didn’t pursue this reform. A big own goal.

    Even bigger shame they didn’t go ahead with bringing in proportional representation for multi-member wards in other local councils – the existing voting system for that is terribly undemocratic. Didn’t want to upset existing powerbrokers in regional areas I guess.

  14. FYI Daniel – sorry old son no “seismic shift to ALP”. not even a modest one in reality – almost identical seat count out of the night.

  15. Will it though Daniel? On present counting (which will presumably follow the trend of becoming even stronger for the LNP) the LNP will maintain their already large majority on the council (likely with no seats lost) and win a strong victory in the mayoralty.

    While Labor have gotten a swing towards them, it’s a pretty paltry and uneven one. In some (safe) wards, the swings are impressive, others not so much. Indeed, Labor have actually gone backwards in several marginal wards.

    If anyone’s done well here (other than the LNP), it’s almost certainly the Greens.

  16. I wouldn’t rule out late postals being less favourable to the LNP, but yes it seems like they’ll retain their seats.

  17. Were Brisbane City Council LNP as efficient in Postal vote management as they were in State and Federal elections?
    I live outside of BCC and no Liberal Party candidates therefore Liberal Machine did not distribute Postal BVote applications on day writs issued where no endorsed Liberal Party Candidate standing.

  18. appears as per Antony Green there is a 2% swing to the alp in Currumbin…….. that means a margin of roughly 1.5% for the libs……. has implications for the qld election…. maybe labor can add to their 1 gold coast seat

  19. I ask again we’re LNP efficient in postal vote process? This will be the deciding factor in a lot of cases.

  20. ALP Government needs to fixup problems at ECQ before State Election.
    No comment about IT issues beyond my competence but issues that need addressing
    Polling Booth siting- Systemstic bureaucracy needed define requirements and then only select sites that meet those requirements. If it means erecting Tents on School perimeters so be it. If they can organise parking with bus services for bridge and tunnel openings they can do so for elections.
    Qld Electoral Act and Qld Local Govrt Electoral Act is unnecessary duplication. Compulsory Preferential voting should be introduced for local govt to match up with State. 15% informal unacceptable ECQ TV ads for Local Government were verging on stupid. A couple of young women getting in or out of a lift tells electorate nothing. An explanation of preferential voting would have been far more useful.

    Candidates need clear instructions on the legalities of process. Sending out instruction to Officers in Charge of polling booths at 0759 for a 0800 opening shows complete lack of understanding of how things work on ground. Who ever authorised that instruction needs to experience an election booth.
    The candidate I supported was told that it was logistically impossible to distribute How to Vote cards to every Officer in Charge and that he had to replace his A5 HTV with A4 but OIC understandably reluctant to change after sticking down in correct order.
    If someone had gone around and offered HTV that had not been approved we might now be having a new Local Govrrnment Election. ECQ has to either be responsible for distribution of HTV or not be responsible. They can not be responsible when it suits them but then claim responsibility when Controll suits them.

  21. The flow of ALP preferences from the nominal count done this morning – 3494 votes – was 47.3% Greens, 11.8% LNP & 40.9% exhausted/wasted.

    The flow of ALP preferences in the same seat in 2016 was 53.6% Greens, 7.4% LNP & 38.9% exhaust/wasted. If this flow had been repeated, Greens would be ahead by approx 25 votes, rather than behind by about 350 as they now are.

    It’s possible this change may be due to a lot fewer Labor voters getting a how to vote card before they filled in their ballot.

  22. Game over. LNP win Paddington, so no loss of seats from 2016 result – that is quite remarkable…

  23. So 40% of ALP voters could not gives dam whether City is governed by the likes of Sri or the likes of Newman. This is evidence of tribal mental retardation.

    Regardless of where you sit on political spectrum you must have a preference between Greens and LNP.

    What did ALP How to vote say?

    In Moreton Bay the issue of who failed to utilise their preference will decide Mayoral contest.
    5 candidates
    2 existing Councillor ( one of whom currently suspended)
    1 Proxy Liberal
    2 Vehement anti existing Council candidates.

    Down to one of two
    Proxy Liberal
    Exisiting Councillor

    My estimate is that if less than 12% allocate preferences Peter Flannery existing Councillor will win but if more than 12% allocate Preferences then Chris Thompson the proxy Lib will win.

    I am basing this on 2 vehement hostile candidates voters allocating 5% to Flannery and existing suspended Councillor non exhausted votes going 50/ 50 to Flannery and Thompson.

    ECQ have been very slow releasing figures. Hopefully by end of today we will have some more details.
    All Mayoral candidates issued Just Vote 1 How to Votes.

  24. The ALP how to votes showed 1 Labor, 2 Greens in every seat. But a lot fewer people got how to votes cards this time due to restrictions on handing them out.

  25. This was the 1st election i ever voted in (Moreton Bay) And honestly i am surprised by the results, Peter Flannery was involved in the corruption with mayor Sunderland, And the candidate who is leading in my Ward/Division expressed opposition to saving North Lakes Golf Course and backs the Village Retirement plan, Unlike Brisbane no candidates here are registered to any particular party (Nonpartisan) So it’s almost impossible to know who are the front-runners going into the election as no polling is done up here, I didn’t know who to preference because since i never knew this was a Flannery vs Thompson contest i didn’t know who to put higher or lower. Funny enough the candidates my household voted for both came last, I think preferences are optional here so there will be a few exhausted votes here which won’t go to any of the top 2 at the end, Looking forward to the state election should it be still held amid this health crisis.

  26. Prior to election I thought your first choice had a chance but his campaign did him more damage than good. He should have stayed home and said nothing and he would have got more than 13%.

    Peter Flannery addressed the CCC corruption allegations with a letter from CCC clearly indicating that matter had been finalised
    Therefore no one should have rejected him on bassist of allegations that proved to be baseless.
    Candidate Raedel has been charged and will face trial in next month. I thought him less of a risk than Candidates Teasdale and Shield who I ranked 5 and 4 respectively. Candidate Teasdale has already indicated he will try again in 4 years time and I am prepared to say now that he will probably be last on my ballot paper in 2024.
    Teasdale does have a vision for Moreton Bay but it is one off unrestrained growth. In effect it is a vision that will maximise land values at expense of quality of life and jobs.
    Most of candidates campaigned through Facebook pages . I got only one flyer during the campaign.

    The election will be decided by those voters who supported Raedel Shield and Treasdale who allocate preferences in contravention of HTV. All Mayoral Candidates recommended a vote one only ballot order.

  27. Wasn’t Teasdale and ex-liberal who stood federally for Petrie in 2010? I am surprised he did this bad because i thought hed had name recognition because truth is prior to the election he was the only name i recognised, i suspect most preferences will go to Thompson because if hes an ex-lib and most people in this region lean somewhat conservative, although hypothetically what would happen if everyone just voted “1” and nobody got 50 percent? Would the pluarity winner still be elected despite the ranked choice voting system we have here?

  28. In the scenario you describe As the votes of excluded candidates are removed from the total number of formal votes the percentage of the valid votes for remaining candidates will increase.

    When down to only 2 candidates left one of them will be over 50%.
    In this situation Flannery will be the winner.

    At moment Flannery is on about
    30%
    Thompson on 29%
    With remaining 3 on a total of41%. If none of these 41% allocate preferences then % of votes going to Flannery will rise to 50.84%
    Thompson will be dependent upon Oreference flow to overtake Flannery with need about 2% of total vote to get ahead.

  29. Exact figures for above scenario

    Flannery on 59960 Formal votes of all candidates first preference votes 204288 =29.35% and THompson on 55798 = 27.31%.

    NO candidate has 50% +1 vote so lowest candidate eis excluded and prefwerences normally allocated. IN this case it is Shields. When Shields is excluded with zero allocation of Preferences as per your scenario. Flannery remains on 59960 but votes of all candidates not excluded drops from 204288 to 176775 and therefore FLannery’s percentage of votes rises to 33.91%. THompson will then sit on 31.56%.

    Decreasing size of denominator increases the percentage. 1/4 = 25% 1/2 =50%.

    As no candidate has a majority Teasdale (as candidate with lowest votes) will be excluded. in this scenario all of Teasdale votes will not allocate a preference so and Flannery and THompson remain with their original vote tally. HOwever total number of votes of non excluded candidates will drop from 176775 to 147604 votes still in play. FLannery percentage vote will rise to 40.62 and THompson to 37.8%.
    WE still do not have a majority so Raedel (as third lowest candidate is excluded and in this scenario described above there are no preferences to distribute. Total number of votes still in play will drop from 147604 to 115758. FLannery will then have a percentage of 59,960/115758 *100/1 = 51.87% THompson’s percentage will rise from 37.8% to 48.20%

    THe final score in the two candidate with the scenario of no voter preferencing beyond first choice will be

    FLannery 59960 (51.87%)
    THompson 55798 (48.20%)
    Flannery will be elected with 29.35% of original formal votes.
    This will mean that the 88,170 votes (43% of original Formal votes) votes cast for Shields Teasdale and Raedel play no part in electing the Mayor. This is why I support compulsory Preferential voting.

    THe scenario you described of no preferences flowing will not occur and I am expecting about 10% of voters to vote to exhaustion but no one really knows. With 12.5% or less minor candidates allocating preferences to exhaustion I expect Peter Flannery to win (based on SHiels and TEasdale 5% floe to FLannery and Raedel 50% flow) but at 15% I expect Chris Thompson to win.

    IF you want the Excel Spreadsheet with most of my calculations send me an e-mail and I will send to you.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  30. Greens just 3 votes behind Labor in Coorparoo now. The perfect split of the left vote means Cunningham will be easily returned.

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