7:07am – Overall we are seeing a trend of swings against the LNP and to the Greens, with Labor gaining in some places and losing in others. The Greens in particular appear to have strengthened their position in the inner-city wards of Coorparoo, Paddington and The Gabba, where it looks likely that Jonathan Sri will be re-elected with a much bigger vote. I should warn, however, that all these figures are very preliminary and do not include preference counts. We don’t know how the remaining postal and pre-poll votes might vary from the election day vote.
7:05am – We have some primary votes from each council ward but without preference counts and without comparing where the booths have come from it’s hard to compare. I’ll do some work on this later today. For the eight wards I’m most interested in, this is the current situation:
- Coorparoo – With 14.53% counted, LNP is down 4.3%, Labor down 3.4%, Greens up 10.2%. Very small sample so I would want to see more.
- Doboy – With 13.16% counted, the LNP is on 53.5% in a two-horse race.
- Enoggera – With 23.18% counted, the LNP is down 7.2%, Labor is up 1.9%, Greens are up 0.7%.
- Holland Park – With 21.26% counted, the LNP is down 4.5%, Labor is down 4.6%, the Greens are up 9.6%.
- Northgate – With 24.32% counted, the LNP is down 3.3%, Labor is up 0.3%, Greens are up 2.9%.
- Paddington – With 27.89% counted, the LNP is down 5.4%, the Greens are up 13.7%, Labor is down 8.4%.
- The Gabba – With 38.62% counted, the Greens are up 16.2% to almost 49%, Labor is down 4.1%, the LNP is down 9.6%.
- The Gap – With 22.09% counted, the LNP is down 2.2%, Labor is down 2.4%, the Greens are up 3.8%.
6:48am – Over 40% has been counted for lord mayor of Brisbane and there appears to have been a swing of about 8% away from the LNP, but none of that has boosted the Labor vote. The Greens are still doing quite well, polling over 15%. It’s not clear if the data is skewed to particular areas. I’ll look into that for the post later today.
6:45am – We have 56% of the vote counted in Bundamba and it looks similar to where we were last night. Labor is about 15 points clear of One Nation so should win on Greens preferences.
6:41am – We have close to 40% of the results in Currumbin now, and the LNP leads Labor by about 3%. Antony Green reports that party scrutineers have received a paper version of two-candidate-preferred results with the LNP “a handful” of votes ahead. There are a lot of postals and pre-polls to come and it seems likely they will favour the LNP, so they are favourites here, but those postals and pre-polls may not behave the same as always due to the pandemic so I’d want to wait and see.
6:35am – I’m just coming back here with a few updates on what we’ve learnt overnight. I won’t be liveblogging today but will return with a post this evening.
9:02pm – I’m going to be stopping the liveblog here. I’ll return tomorrow afternoon with an update. We now have almost 11% of the primary vote for the Brisbane lord mayor’s race and it still appears to have a very high Greens vote – I’m still assuming this is due to the selection of booths and doesn’t reflect a final result. It does look likely that Labor will retain Bundamba but we have not gained any extra data in quite some time. There appears to be a problem with the Currumbin count. Elsewhere it looks very clear that Tom Tate will be re-elected as mayor of the Gold Coast.
8:31pm – We’re really not getting very much. I’ll keep checking in, but expect more tomorrow.
8:20pm – There appears to be a problem with the Currumbin voting results so I wouldn’t take the small number of votes recorded there too seriously.
8:16pm – With almost 35% counted in Bundamba, Labor’s Lance McCallum has slightly increased his primary vote lead over One Nation: 42.3% to 27.4%. He’s looking pretty good here.
8:14pm – Almost 20,000 votes have been counted for mayor of the Gold Coast and Tom Tate is still above 50%.
8:13pm – So we now have a lot more data for the Brisbane lord mayoral race. Adrian Schrinner is currently leading on 43.4%, with Labor’s Pat Condren on 30.4%, and the Greens’ Kath Angus on 18.7%. This is off a sample of almost 6% which appears to lean towards the best Greens areas in the western suburbs, so it’s too early to say. At the moment this is a swing of about 10% away from the LNP and a small swing against Labor.
7:46pm – We won’t be getting any preference counts tonight for lord mayoral and council races in Brisbane (I assume the same is true in other councils) so we may be able to call races where the leading candidate is far out in front but close races won’t be decided. We should expect preference counts in Bundamba and Currumbin.
7:45pm – It will be quite some time before we have results that are sufficiently complete and details to know exactly how many people voted using each method in this election, but I put up a post this afternoon analysing how we should expect a massive crash in the number of people voting on election day. Since posting this I have heard from a number of people on the ground that a two-thirds drop in attendances sounds plausible.
7:42pm – Incumbent Gold Coast mayor Tom Tate is well out in front with 53.6% of the primary vote, with his main rival Mona Hecke a distant second on 24.4%, off almost 10,000 votes, or 2.8% of the total. This count is still too early but he is in a good position.
7:41pm – We do have over 1% counted for three other big city mayoralties. Teresa Harding is well out in front with 43% in Ipswich (off a sample of 1671 votes). 2345 votes have been reported in Moreton Bay and Peter Flannery is narrowly in the lead with 26%, with Adrian Raedel and Chris Thompson both over 20%.
7:39pm – Meanwhile just 460 votes have been reported for the Brisbane lord mayoralty.
7:38pm – The vote count is very early in the City of Brisbane. I’m following eight wards tonight (Doboy, Northgate, Coorparoo, Holland Park, The Gap, Enoggera, Paddington and The Gabba) and we only have vote counts from one of them. We only have 62 votes in Paddington so I won’t bother describing that count further. This looks likely to be a slow count.
7:30pm – The number of votes in Currumbin is much smaller – only about 3.5%. At the moment LNP candidate Laura Gerber is leading with 47.9% ahead of Labor’s Kaylee Campradt on 37.6% but the numbers are very small.
7:28pm – We have small numbers of votes reporting from the two state by-elections. In Bundamba, Labor’s Lance McCallum is well out in front with just over 25% counted, with 41.9%. One Nation’s Sharon Bell is in second place on 28.2% while the LNP and the Greens are both in the mid-teens. We don’t have any preferences, but on those numbers it’s very likely Labor would win.
6:00pm – Polls have just closed in the Queensland council elections. I’ll be live-blogging tonight, although it’s worth noting that a very high rate of pre-poll and postal voting means we will likely need to wait to know who is winning close races.