9:33 – I’m going to end this liveblog here. We now have primary vote figures from all ordinary booths, and are just missing the 2CP data from Bondi Beach. We will also be waiting for pre-poll and postals to be reported, presumably most of them coming over the next 24 hours. Phelps currently sits on 54.3% of the two-candidate-preferred count, leading by almost 4,000 votes. I will now start work on a wrap-up blog post, which will feature a map of the electorate.
8:43 – Sorry for the limited commentary. To be honest there isn’t much to report at the moment, but the trend is the same. The only booth to violate the divisions I used for the seat was Dover Heights (which anyone familiar with Wentworth would know should really be lumped in with Harbour, but I had left it in Beach for simplicity), where Sharma won. Once we have the final figures for the booths I’ll put together a map and a subarea summary.
8:31 – Peter Brent on Twitter has pointed out that this will probably end up as the fourth-highest swing against an incumbent party at a federal by-election ever. Two of the higher-ranked results were when a party leader quit and the seat was won by an independent: Mark Vaile in 2008 and Bob Hawke in 1992:
8:09 – We now have fifteen booths reporting the two-candidate-preferred count and the trend is clear. Phelps is winning in the city end and beach end, while Sharma holds on in the harbour. This translates into a Phelps win since there are more voters in her areas. In aggregate, Phelps is on 61.1% in the beach area, 61.7% in the city area, but only 41.6% in the harbour.
7:51 – Things are a bit quiet now because the trend has been pretty consistent. We have 24 booths reporting primary votes, and nine reporting 2CP figures. Sharma continues to hold on in the harbour and lose elsewhere. It seems very clear that Kerryn Phelps has won Wentworth.
7:40 – Last week I wrote a post about “the three Wentworths“, and we’re seeing a clear trend of Phelps winning in the beachside suburbs and the cityside suburbs, and Sharma surviving big swings to hold on in the harbourside areas.
7:38 – Phelps is on 57.6% after preferences in Clovelly North.
7:30 – Sharma is still leading on the primary vote the harbourfront suburbs, in Bellevue Hill South, Double Bay East, Edgecliff and Vaucluse
7:28 – Phelps is outpolling Sharma on primary votes across the beachside end of the seat: Bondi, Bondi Beach East and Bronte, but just behind in Bondi North.
7:27 – Two more booths reporting 2CP counts, and two more wins for Phelps: 58.5% in Bondi North and 72.3% in Darlinghurst East.
7:25 – We spent a lot of this campaign focused on the contest between Phelps and Labor’s Tim Murray for the centre-left vote, with concern about the potential for Murray to come in second and then lose with weaker preference flows. Instead it appears Labor has suffered a large swing, potentially a result of a great deal of focus on strategic voting in the last week.
7:21 – Sharma is also down 22% in Bellevue Hill South and 27.3% in Bronte. Phelps appears on track for mid-30s, as is Sharma. I do think it’s reasonable to expect she would win easily on those figures but I’d like a few more 2CP counts first.
7:19 – Sharma has also suffered 26.7% swing in Paddington Central,
7:18 – Phelps is on 65% of the vote after preferences at Bondi Beach East.
7:17 – Liberals on 71.7% after preferences in Vaucluse, which is not too bad, but in one of their best booths.
7:14 – Phelps is on 33.4% in Bondi North, while Sharma is on 54.5% (down 20.1%). Phelps is on 42.2% in Kings Cross Central, while Sharma is on 25.5% (down 20.2%).
7:08 – Dave Sharma has managed only 52% after preferences at Double Bay East, which you’d expect to be a strong booth for him. If that is a trend, he’s on track to lose.
7:04 – 41.4% of the vote for Kerryn Phelps in Bondi Beach East, with Dave Sharma suffering a 20% swing dropping to 49.7%. She’s also on 43.6% in Darlinghurst East, while Sharma has dropped to 48.2%, down 25.7%.
6:56 – The swing against the Liberals is smaller in Vaucluse, where they’ve dropped to 63.5%, down from 75% in 2016. Unfortunately the AEC doesn’t appear to be calculating swings from the 2016 figures (which would take into account the changes in booths) so I can’t perfectly calculate the swing. Phelps is on 20%. Still, this is an area we would expect to be particularly good for the Liberals.
6:46 – It goes without saying that this is extremely early but it’s an early sign of a huge swing against the Liberal Party and towards Kerryn Phelps. Tim Murray is stuck on 8.4%, which I think is a 1.5% swing against Labor.
6:40 – We have the first results in from Double Bay East. Sharma is on 48%, Phelps is on 29.5%. We didn’t have a Double Bay East booth in 2016, but at Double Bay Turnbull polled just under 75%. That would be a swing of well over 25%.
6:31 – We don’t have any results yet, but it’s worth noting that the AEC has chosen Dave Sharma and Kerryn Phelps as the two candidates for the two-candidate-preferred count. I think this is probably a good choice. I won’t be doing a projection here tonight but will be tracking the booths and will try and track some results at the booth level, and of course there’ll be a map later on.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Wentworth by-election. Don’t expect much in the way of results for at least 45 minutes, but I’ll be tracking the results here all night.