Canning by-election live


Primary vote results as of 9:33pm – 45/45 booths reporting

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Projected
Vimal Kumar Sharma Palmer United 2,272 3.06 -3.82 2.35
Connor Whittle Liberal Democratic Party 410 0.55 +0.55 0.55
Michelle Allen Pirate Party 671 0.90 +0.9 0.90
Greg Smith Ausralian Defence Veterans Party 570 0.77 +0.77 0.77
Katrina Love Animal Justice 1,007 1.36 +1.36 1.36
Andrew Hastie Liberal 34,437 46.42 -4.65 47.52
Teresa Van Lieshout Independent 428 0.58 +0.58 0.58
Matt Keogh Labor 26,635 35.90 +9.26 35.87
Vanessa Rauland Greens 4,501 6.07 -1.33 5.81
Jim McCourt Family First 536 0.72 -0.63 0.82
Jamie Van Burgel Australian Christians 2,281 3.07 -0.02 2.62
Angela Smith Stable Population Party 444 0.60 +0.6 0.60
Total formal votes 74,192

Two-party-preferred results as of 9:33pm – 45/45 booths reporting

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Projected
Andrew Hastie Liberal 38,492 55.30 -6.51 55.65
Matt Keogh Labor 31,112 44.70 +6.51 44.35
Total formal votes 69,604

9:45pm – This is it for tonight – all ordinary votes have been counted, with a bunch of special votes yet to be counted. I’ll return tomorrow with a summary post.

8:31pm – The previous figures are starting to converge on each other – the swing is 9% in Armadale and 4% in Mandurah. There’s a few big booths yet to report so there’s a possible sampling issue.

8:14pm – We now have 2PP results for over two-thirds of booths, and there’s some clear trends. The ALP are on track for an 11% swing in Armadale, but in the other main urban area in Mandurah the swing is only about 2%.

7:35pm – I now have results posted for 19 booths – just running a bit behind the official results. We’re looking at a swing of about 5.5%, and Andrew Hastie is on track to win.

6:44pm – We now have five small booths reporting, with Hastie leading. Unfortunately I’m having some trouble finding the booth-level results so don’t currently have a projection.

6:00pm – Polls have just closed in Canning. We should start to see some results in the next 45 minutes, and would expect to see some rural conservative booths coming in first. Join us as we follow the results.

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  1. Also remember it’s now the Sustainable Population Party, but I doubt too many people will notice.

    Surprisingly the LDP running dead last, even with the 2nd spot on the ballot paper. Shows having a publicity-chasing Senator doesn’t necessarily grow a party

  2. Given that by-elections are usually pretty tough affairs for governments, this a pretty mediocre result for Labor.

    Canning has had this configuration since 2001, when Randall first won it with 50.4% of the 2PP. It went 52-48 only five years ago when Alannah MacTiernan was the candidate.

    Perhaps the seat has simply drifted Liberal over that time. With Canning set to lose Armadale in the current redistribution, we can perhaps start to think of it as a safe Liberal seat.

  3. I tend to agree. I think if you offered the Liberals 55-45 beforehand, they’d have taken it and run.

    I’m not sure Labor would have taken 55-45…..I think they might have hoped/expected to get a bit closer than that.

  4. M. Mulcair
    No doubt. However, with 10,000 pre-poll, & 10- 15000 new voters, mostly urban ,the real picture remains a little unclear. WE will have to wait until the next election with the new boundaries, for the full picture.
    FWIW I think the libs did very well, all things considered.Under Abbott i would have expected A 10% + swing.
    Do you think WA will get another seat at the next Determination, post fed election.? Obviously SA. will lose one.

  5. So Malcolm has only been able to save 3.5% from when Abbott was leader. This was a pretty weak sugar hit for Malcolm

  6. (looks like my response didn’t come through).

    As I said on kevin’s blog, Armadale is a Labor-voting area that probably voted for Don Randall personally rather than the Liberals as a party. So it seems the big swing is just this area reverting to type. Whereas Mandurah and the coastal areas are more naturally Liberal, so the loss of an MP didn’t seem to affect things as much.

    Burt was always better for Labor than the notional margin suggested, in my opinion. Even if Randall didn’t pass away, the redistribution moved Armadale out of his seat, so his personal vote is lost.

    I don’t know if WA is growing fast enough to get another seat next time. If it does, it would probably be in the northern suburbs. Whereas SA will very likely lose a seat….probably one of Hindmarsh or Boothby will be abolished, with Wakefield becoming almost entirely urban.

  7. Wakefield may will end up looking more like the old seat of Bonython after the next redistribution. Any seat based on Salisbury and Elizabeth would be rock solid for Labor, the area is somewhat stereotyped as bogan central over here.

    Regarding Canning: the result is largely what I expected, swing to Labor was lager in Armadale than Mandurah or the rural land

  8. M. Mulcair
    Thanks for your response. Agree 100% about Armidale. Ben said a few similar things in his results summary, which i hadn’t read before i posted. Agree also about Burt. It will be interesting to see whether Cowan or Burt ends up being the most marginal seat, in reality.
    Matt Keogh may have already embedded a 1/3 rd of a sophomore swing. However he would be wise to keep all fed labor MPs out of his new electorate (Burt), & only campaign on local , & state issues.
    WRT to the determination. Perhaps the issue will be whether the ACT grows enough to get a 3rd
    seat?. it will be interesting.
    You would know better than i, however i find it difficult to imagine the abolition of Hindmarsh, for a few reasons. What about say Makin ?.
    cheers WD

  9. Goosh Goosh
    Quite right.
    Out of idle curiosity what makes the north more “bogan central” than say Port Adelaide !!??

  10. Observer
    Your observation is typically myopic,facile,simplistic, negative, & personal. All of which exemplifies the left’s current approach. Witness the pathetic QT performance last week. If Labor hope to even hold their ground at the next election, they will need to acknowledge the nation’s fatigue, & contempt,for,& with negative, personal, adversarial politics.
    Clearly the Canning result was more interesting, complex, & nuanced than you would care to admit, or perhaps comprehend ?

  11. WD,

    I think Burt is much “better” for Labor than Cowan, because the seat has lost the personal vote of all the surrounding Liberal MPs. The flip side of course is that Hasluck, Swan and Canning become more difficult for Labor to win. Cowan might depend on how the final boundaries are drawn.

    A state’s determination doesn’t depend on the other states. If Parliament needs to go to 151 or 149 seats, that’s just what happens.

    I haven’t thought in great detail about SA, but Boothby seems to me to be the easiest seat to carve up and split between other Divisions. Makin is kind of tucked up in a corner and back against the mountains, so I’m not sure how abolishing it would work.

  12. Winediamond and Mark,

    I just estimated the determination based on the new population stats released today, and neither WA nor the ACT are increasing their share of Australia’s population. At the last determination WA had 16.21 quotas and the ACT 2.44. One year later, they have 16.15 and 2.43, respectively.

    SA is growing more slowly than the rest of the country and there’s a good chance it will drop below 10.5 quotas at the next determination. That’s assuming the next determination is 2 years away i.e. no early election.

  13. I hope my home state doesn’t lose a seat. But if it does, Port Adelaide would be the one to go. It can be elegantly divided between Wakefield and Hindmarsh.

    Sadly, it would make the state far less interesting in electoral terms; since both would probably become safe-ish for Labor.

    The southern parts hived off Hindmarsh probably wouldn’t much change Boothby’s political complexion either (Glenelg is quite Liberal).

  14. E. Boyce.
    Much appreciated. It seems Australia’s largest internal migration is over (to WA). Sadly though, as it means more pressure on Sydney, & Melbourne.

  15. M. Mulcair
    Looks like you are spot on about Burt. It seems the “true” margin is really 2.5 -3.5%. There seems a lot of objection to all changes in the north of Perth.Not the least your own reasonable ones. So it is hard to see the proposed changes to Cowan remaining unaffected.
    Looks like we are heading for 149 seats.

  16. Doug
    With 2 senate seats, cry me a river…!! If you you want to talk about being “under represented” try being a NSW voter.

  17. D. Walsh
    You could well be right about Port. There would be nothing “safe-ish” about it. Rock solid labor. However i have this feeling that Xenophon will be a game changer. If i were an SA voter i’d find it very hard not to vote for his party. The provincial self- interest is irrefutable.
    Then there is always the “Kennett” proposal.
    With the Federation White Paper due, perhaps this, or a version of it would be ventilated. This is in short to federate TAS, VIC, & SA. Adelaide would be state capital. A win ,win if ever there was one. I’d eliminate the territories as well, & make Canberra the NSW capital. Getting rid of 4 govts ought to make a mark on the deficit.
    The main game is still federation with NZ. However until we radically clean up our act in this , & other ways. Why would the Kiwis be interested ??.

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