NSW 2015 – regional results breakdown

7

The figures in this spreadsheet are based on figures at midday on Sunday. Numbers may slightly change on late counting.

In last night’s summary post, I discussed the regional variations in Labor’s swings. Labor have swept the Liberal Party out of the Hunter and Central Coast, with the Liberals holding on to their single safer Central Coast seat, and Labor leading in two other Central Coast counts. In western Sydney, Labor won those seats on margins under 7%, but safer Liberal seats held on while seats on similar margins in the Hunter fell. In southern Sydney, Labor failed to win seats on slim margins, and generally gained smaller swings in seats like Holsworthy. On the north coast, the Labor vote increased but looks more likely to help elect Greens MPs in Nationals seats off Labor preferences.

The following table shows the vote for Labor, the combined Coalition and the Greens in each region. I’ve defined twelve regions: six in Sydney and six outside Sydney.

RegionSeatsLNP %LNP swingALP %ALP swingGRN %GRN swing
Central Coast443.8%-8.4%40.8%12.7%9.1%-2.5%
Eastern Sydney541.2%-6.1%32.8%6.2%15.2%-0.8%
Hunter1030.0%-11.2%44.4%16.7%8.6%0.3%
Illawarra430.2%-2.6%45.8%9.2%10.9%-1.5%
Inner West Sydney634.0%-3.0%37.6%2.1%21.9%2.0%
Northern NSW951.0%-6.1%23.9%13.2%14.5%4.3%
Northern Sydney1162.0%-4.7%16.8%5.1%14.3%-0.6%
South-West Sydney1138.9%-4.0%46.7%8.8%5.3%-0.8%
Southern NSW450.4%-7.3%34.8%9.5%9.8%-0.9%
Southern Sydney649.4%-2.7%35.4%5.0%7.3%-1.7%
Western NSW858.1%-7.6%25.2%9.8%5.2%0.6%
Western Sydney1547.1%-3.0%36.5%6.2%6.7%-1.4%

Labor gained its biggest swings in the ten Hunter seats (16.7%), the nine seats in Northern NSW (13.2%) and the four seats on the Central Coast (12.7%).

On the other hand, the swing to Labor was very small in the Inner West (2.1%), Southern Sydney (5%), Northern Sydney (5.1%) and the Eastern Suburbs (6.2%).There are no marginal seats in northern Sydney, and in the eastern suburbs only Coogee (retained by the Liberal Party) is a marginal seat.

In Southern Sydney and the Inner West, Labor suffered a number of disappointing results.

In the Inner West, the ALP gained a solid swing of 7.8% in Strathfield (which they won off the Liberal Party). In the rest of this region, the Labor swing was very small. Labor gained modest swings in Balmain, Canterbury and Strathfield. The Labor vote stayed still in Newtown, and dropped by 1.7% in Drummoyne.

In southern Sydney, the Liberal Party increased its margin in Oatley from 3.8% to 7%, and Labor also suffered a negative swing on primary votes in Kogarah. Labor gained solid swings in Heathcote, Rockdale and Miranda. Labor gained Rockdale, fell short in Heathcote, and lost Miranda after winning the seat at the 2013 by-election.

Overall, the election was much better for Labor outside Sydney than in Sydney. Labor’s vote increased by almost 13% in the 39 seats outside Sydney, but only by 5.8% in Sydney. The Coalition suffered a swing of 3.7% in Sydney, and 8.2% outside Sydney.

RegionSeatsLNP %LNP swingALP %ALP swingGRN %GRN swing
Sydney5447.1%-3.7%34.0%5.8%10.5%-0.8%
Outside Sydney3943.6%-8.2%34.9%12.9%9.7%0.7%
Statewide9345.7%-5.5%34.3%8.8%10.1%-0.1%

The Greens saw a consolidation of their vote in their stronger areas, while losing votes elsewhere to produce a roughly similar statewide result compared to 2011. The Greens gained a big 4.3% swing in northern NSW, along with a 2% swing in the inner west. These two regions look likely to give the Greens a total of four seats. The party slightly increased its vote in the Hunter and in Western NSW, but suffered swings in most other regions.

I’ll return to the Greens in another blog post to explore how no increase in the statewide vote translates into the party winning 3-4 seats.

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7 COMMENTS

  1. Ben: In Victoria, at each of the last two state elections, the Greens had 10.7 per cent at the end of Saturday night’s counting. But the Greens do well on absentee votes, and sometimes pre-polls. In 2010 their vote swelled to 11.2 % by the end, and in 2013, to 11.5 %. Is there any reason to believe it won’t do something like that in NSW?

  2. Greens primary vote my “backyard” – the inner west (figures are from the ABC’s election site)

    8.7% Strathfield
    10.7% Drummoyne
    27.9% Summer Hill
    38.4% Balmain
    47.7% Newtown

    It increased everywhere here except Strathfield (-2.4%)

    Ben’s figures above show them negative almost everywhere else (Northern Rivers excepted, Hunter marginally so). Overall their vote appears static from 2011

    However by concentrating their advertising spend (considerable in the inner west) into seats with strong NIMBY issues to run with (WestConnex, CSG), they became the “surprise” stars of the much media commentary

    A surprise only to those not paying attention.

  3. On the new 2019 pendulum there will only be about 7 liberal seats in Sydney on margins less than 10pc. Only two of those seats will be on less than 5pc (Coogee and East Hills). The ALP will still have a big mountain to climb in Sydney next time.

  4. @Coco Bunter how will those Greens seats in the Inner West fare when their primary NIMBY issue is taken out of the equation…

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