On current figures, the next NSW Legislative Assembly looks set to include 37 Liberals, 16 Nationals, 33 Labor, 3 Greens, 2 independents and two seats remain undecided.
The two remaining seats to be decided are Gosford, where Labor is leading, and Lismore, which will be decided between the Nationals and the Greens, and I’ll get into below.
The swing to Labor varied widely. The party managed to wipe away almost all of the Liberal seats on the Central Coast and the Hunter. If Labor wins Gosford, then the party will have won back all the seats Labor lost to the Liberal Party in 2011, plus Port Stephens which they lost in 2007.
In contrast, Labor’s gains in Sydney were less complete. Labor has gained 3-4 seats on the Central Coast and in the Hunter held on margins of 9-15%, but have gained no seat in Sydney on a margin of more than 7%. Amongst the fifteen Coalition seats on margins of less than 7%, Labor fell short in three: East Hills, Oatley and Monaro. In all three of these seats, Labor suffered a negative swing.
Labor has so far gained fifteen seats, with a chance of a sixteenth: Blue Mountains, Campbelltown, Charlestown, Granville, Londonderry, Macquarie Fields, Maitland, Newcastle, Port Stephens, Prospect, Rockdale, Strathfield, Swansea, The Entrance and Wyong. Labor is also leading in Gosford.
The Greens have retained their two inner-Sydney seats, with swings towards them in Balmain and the new notional Green seat of Newtown.
In addition, the Greens seem set to win Ballina. While no Nationals/Greens preference count has been conducted, the Greens only need to close a 3.5% gap from almost 33% of the vote which has gone to Labor and an ex-Greens independent.
In Lismore, it’s a bit more complicated. On current figures, the Nationals lead on 39%, followed by the Greens on 30% and Labor on 25%. While the Greens would be in a very solid position to win under a compulsory preferential system, Labor preference exhaustion could harm the Greens chances.
Hopefully we will see Nationals/Greens two-candidate-preferred counts soon. In previous races in Balmain (2011) and Prahran (2014) where the Greens were competing with a conservative, it wasn’t clear whether Labor or Greens would be the top-polling progressive party, so no count was conducted between the Liberal and Green until all votes had been counted. Since it’s clear that the Greens have outpolled Labor in Ballina and Lismore, it should be possible for the NSWEC to conduct a new notional two-candidate-preferred count in coming days, which should clear up the situation in Lismore.
I’ve created the following maps showing the change in seats in Sydney and the Hunter/Central Coast region. Apart from Ballina and Lismore, no seats have changed hands outside these two regions. The parties are represented as Liberal blue, Labor red, Greens dark green and Nationals light green, with brighter red representing Labor gains.
I will return tomorrow with a series of posts on the state of the Legislative Council, regional vote breakdowns, and other analysis.