NSW 2015 – election results live

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10:34pm – This is the end for this liveblog. I’m going to prepare a short post summarising the seats that have changed hands (and those that were expected to, but didn’t), as well as maps showing the new electoral map.

9:59pm – With Labor now out of contention in Ballina and Lismore, it’s safe to say that Labor has failed to gain any Nationals seats.

9:56pm – It seems pretty much certain now that the Greens have won Ballina. They are about 5% behind the Nationals, and 5% ahead of the ALP. They should close the gap in preferences. It seems a bit tighter in Lismore, but it seems likely that the Greens will win.

9:00pm – I’m leaving the studio now, will recommence around 9:30 from a new venue.

8:51pm – Labor’s Steve Whan has failed to win back his former seat of Monaro, with the Nationals gaining a swing of 0.6%. Whan had joined the Legislative Council after losing in 2011. Alongside Penny Sharpe in Newtown, both Labor MLCs who resigned their seats to contest other parties’ seats in the lower house have lost.

8:49pm – The Nationals have held on in Tamworth, gaining a further 2.8% swing over former independent MP Peter Draper.

8:32pm – Stuart Ayres has held on in Penrith. Independent candidate and former federal Liberal MP Jackie Kelly only won just over 8%.

8:26pm – Labor has also regained Campbelltown and notionally regained Macquarie Fields, but have fallen short in East Hills and Oatley, held by margins of 0.2% and 3.8%.

8:17pm – Union leader and independent candidate Arthur Rorris looks likely to come second in Wollongong, but with less than Gordon Bradbery polled in 2011, so Labor’s Noreen Hay looks like she’s been re-elected.

8:15pm – At this point, just to be clear, I am confident the Greens have held onto Newtown and Balmain, with increased margins.

8:08pm – It looks like Jodi McKay has won Strathfield off Charles Casuscelli.

8:05pm – Here are some seats Labor lost in 2011 that they haven’t won back: Coogee, Holsworthy, Mulgoa, Parramatta, Heathcote, Camden.

8:01pm – So far, Labor has gained Granville, Blue Mountains and Maitland. All these seats are held by margins of less than 6%.

7:57pm – As I just said on the radio, the Coalition has been re-elected to a second term. It also seems clear that the Greens have won Newtown.

7:45pm – Check out East Hills. The seat is the most marginal Liberal seat in NSW, yet there has been no swing against the Liberal Party on primary votes and only a small swing to Labor and the Greens.

7:39pm – It looks like Labor has regained Maitland and Blue Mountains.

7:20pm – You couldn’t rule out the Greens in Ballina either, with far too few votes counted in Balmain.

7:19pm – The Greens are leading by quite a large margin in Newtown, with seven small booths reporting.

7:18pm – The Greens and Labor are both up substantially in Lismore, with the Greens just ahead with over one third of booths reporting. It’s worth noting that the bigger booths will be in the town of Lismore, which should be better for Labor and less good for the Greens. Any of the three main parties could win the seat.

7:16pm – The ABC website has already projected the Coalition to win 48 seats, with Labor on 33 seats, but what those seats are isn’t clear.

7:15pm – So far there is a clear swing from the Coalition to Labor, with the Greens also on an increased vote.

6:47pm – So far we have very small numbers of votes that don’t tell us much about what will be happening.

6:45pm – Just a reminder, while I am doing my liveblog I’ll be providing live results on the Election Nerds on 2SER 107.3FM in Sydney from 7pm to 9pm. You can listen online here.

6:42pm – Okay, I’m now at my computer ready for the results to flow in.

While we wait for NSW results, there has been another interesting election today. The Northland by-election in New Zealand saw the formerly safe National seat swing strongly to New Zealand First, with the party’s leader Winston Peters winning over 50% of the vote. This result will mean that National will lose a seat, while Peters’ list seat will be filled by the party’s next candidate from the last election.

6:00pm – Polls have just closed for today’s election. Tonight I’ll be covering results live on air, and on this website, from 2SER’s studios in Sydney from 7pm to 9pm, but I will be with you all night online as we watch the results flow in.

Normally we would expect few if any results reported prior to 7pm, but the big unknown this year is the large increase in Ivotes. These electronic votes are cast online by voters with sight impediments, living overseas or living in remote locations, and they have been more popular than in the past.

They are being counted tonight, and we don’t know how long they will take to come in. The NSW Electoral Commission has said they will take 6-7 hours to count, but we don’t know if that means there will be a constant trickle or if they will all come in late in the night.

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14 COMMENTS

  1. It’s always funny with the early votes coming in, seats bounce around from one extreme to the other as tiny booths come in.

    Greens doing well in Ballina and Lismore on early votes, but am I right in saying these kinds of seats have strong Greens in the smaller booths and weaker in the towns?

  2. Ballina and Lismore are confused because it’s being reported as a Nat v Lab contest. I can see this being another Prahran style entangling going on for days……..

  3. In Lismore the booths around Lismore, including the urban Lismore booths so far, are getting >10% swings for the Greens, but the booths in the Tweed Valley are showing negligible swings. If that continues with the Murwillumbah booths the lack of swing in that part of the seat is what could cause the Greens to fall short

  4. Early days, but some of the swings in Sydney marginal seats are tiny.

    Central Coast/Hunter is a wipeout for the Liberals, and big swings in rural areas.

    Looks like the regional breakdown in the polls was spot on.

  5. Another interesting fact from the numbers so far…most of the swing to Labor has come from Independents and minor parties. The drop in the Coalition vote is low compared to the big swing to Labor on primaries.

  6. Piper the incumbent Independent has won in Lake Macquarie, my fathers electorate, and the Liberal win overall. Mike Baird is from a good small L Liberal pedigree and looks good on TV too. In contrast Foley look like a Foley.

  7. I cannot believe the result in East Hills, easily the most disgraceful moment in recent political history

  8. It’s quite strange given the crushing swing last time, but there are 8-9 seats that have had swings TO the Coalition. I wouldn’t have thought that was possible.

  9. @ Goosh

    Sadly that result was on the cards weeks ago and well before the terrible leaflets were distributed. The seat was gone a while ago. The idiots that did it just tainted their win.

  10. WDRW – not what I heard. ALP were confident until about a fortnight ago. They think those leaflets sunk Murphy.

    Overall, slightly better than expected result for Libs. Labor would have preferred better, but did well enough for Foley to retain leadership. Greens, despite their vote remaining static, will be very pleased to have won four seats.

    Upper house looks like 10 Libs, 7 Labs, 2 Greens and one shooter and Nile.

    Penny Sharpe, Steve Whan and Cameron Murphy will have to reconsider their plans. They’ll all be losses for the opposition team.

    On a final note, no one will ever underestimate the effect of CSG on the voting public.

  11. Baird’s victory should send a message to the conservative Tony Abbott and Campbell Newman in Queensland too. The power sell off was not the issue but the person. Voters want small L Liberalism.

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