NSW 2015 – election day open thread


Polls have just opened across New South Wales for the 2015 state election.

I don’t have a lot to say, but please use this post as an open thread to discuss the election.

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  1. Check the city country split in Newspoll 2% swing against Coalition in Sydney, 10.5% swing against coalition outside Sydney – happy days for the National Party

  2. Via FB chatter from Queanbeyan: the No Land Tax folks are getting paid $30/hr to hand out HTV cards (including one who votes Labor and is feeling a bit guilty about it). Nice work if you can get it.

  3. Bird of Paradox – that was the same thing that happened with the PUP people in yellow shirts at the last federal election. They were all hired via a recruitment agency to be young and photogenic too (and had zero idea about what they were doing there)!
    So… who actually IS the No Land Tax party and who are they feeding prefs to?

  4. Have heard reports that NLT volunteers are walking off booths after hearing that they will not be paid.

  5. Checked 7 booths in 3 inner west electorate on my morning walk (2.5hrs, phew)… No Land Tax workers at 5 of them (3 people alone at Drummoyne PS). When I asked one in Haberfield (who was lost and looking for the school entrance) who her leaflets were for, she said she didn’t know. (no $200 bonus for her!)

    Greens lady at Rozelle very keen to talk about property prices and Balmain water views (shouldn’t she have gone to an auction instead?)

  6. Interesting to note Abbott is over in Melbourne speaking at the Liberal conference there. Somehow I get the impression Baird is relieved about that

  7. My prediction: Coalition 52 Labor 39 Ind 2

    Labor to hold its by-election gains of Newcastle and Charlestown, win the new seat of Newtown and take Balmain from the Greens, notionally re-gain Macquarie Fields, as well as gain East Hills, Swansea, Prospect, Monaro, Rockdale, Granville, Wyong, Maitland, Londonderry, Blue Mountains, Strathfield, Campbelltown, Kiama, The Entrance, Port Stephens and Ballina.

    Libs to win back the by-election loss of Miranda.

  8. My tips: I basically agree with David, with the exceptiona that I think Labor will win Oatley and Coogee but fail in Kiama, Port Stephens and Londonderry. I’ll tip Verity to win Balmain for Labor, but the Green to win Newtown.

    Lismore is anyones guess.

    All Indies to hold and Draper to win Tamworth (despite my wager at good odds on the Nat).

    The Australian paper to claim on Monday that this win re-affirms Abbott’s leadership.

  9. Oatley and Coogee I agonised over. I initially had them down for Labor, before deciding that 41 ALP seats was too much in the context of the statewide polling. Plus the Tele reports that both sides expect the Libs to hold Oatley. Londonderry I strongly expect to fall – with no Liberal incumbent and one of the most active Labor campaigns. Kiama is a guess, but I tend to think Labor will do relatively better outside of Sydney. Port Stephens is my smokey, I’m led to believe this will be one to watch.

    For completeness, I’ll add a LegCo prediction: Coalition 9 Labor 7 Greens 3 Shooters 1 CDP 1.

  10. 5.30pm predictions:

    1. Baird government returned with far less loss of seats than everyone is predicting here.

    2. On ABC Insiders tomorrow, speculation about when Baird will switch to Canberra and replace Abbott

    3. After three weeks of counting and challenges, Labor will get Balmain and retain its “heartland” (having lost everything else).

    4. The Greens will (narrowly), with the barest of margins, take Newtown

    5. Mark Latham will write a book about where Labor has gone wrong

    6. The Australian newspaper will gloat for a week

    7. In the same newspaper, Gerard Henderson will detail at exhaustive length (a longer version being available on his website) how “ABC lefties and Fairfax luvvies didn’t see it coming.” Can we bear it?

    8. Antony Green will announce this was his last election. The Tallyroom’s Ben Raue appointed ABC’s official election analyst.

    All’s well that ends well.

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