Counting yesterday saw Labor’s position improved in one key seat, and weakened in another.
One Nation’s Pauline Hanson slightly improved her position in Lockyer. In Whitsunday, the LNP lead narrowed from 163 to 88 and then blew out to 355 votes. In the seats of Mansfield and Mount Ommaney, Labor narrowed the deficit, with Mount Ommaney now the best chance for Labor to win a majority.
I’ve added an extra column with a rough estimate of how many votes are remaining in the count. This is based on assuming that there will be the same number of each type of special votes in each seat as there was in 2012.
If you follow this model, almost all postal votes have been counted in the seven seats I am tracking, while there are large numbers of absentee and prepoll votes remaining to be counted – about 63% of prepoll votes are yet to be counted, and about 93% of absentee votes are yet to be counted.
So far, both pre-poll and absentee votes have favoured Labor, which may well see Labor’s seat total increase from 44 to 45.
You’ll note that I am no longer tracking the race in Redlands. Antony Green estimates that the LNP lead in that seat has increased to over 1200 votes since Tuesday evening.
|Electorate||LNP||ALP/ON||LNP lead||Est. remaining votes|
Over the course of Thursday, the Labor lead in Ferny Grove increased from 341 to 509, and then dropped back to 348 votes. With Labor likely to benefit from pre-poll and absentee votes, you would expect them to hold on to the seat, but the possibility still remains of Ferny Grove’s result being invalidated and the voters of Ferny Grove returning to vote in a by-election. Antony Green has pointed out that any challenge to the Ferny Grove result would take some time, and in the meantime the seat’s winner will sit in Parliament, which will probably help Labor.
Since I last posted on Wednesday morning, the LNP’s lead has increased from 823 to 916 votes. The LNP is likely to win.
ABC Elections is estimating the two-party-preferred vote in this seat, as the ECQ is not publishing two-party figures. This estimate increased the LNP lead from 801 to 924 votes earlier on Thursday, before dropping back to 726 votes. It’s conceivable that this lead could drop as pre-poll and absentee votes are counted, but unlikely to be enough to give Labor the seat.
Pauline Hanson is still trailing the LNP, but has narrowed the deficit from 205 to 183 votes. Hanson is winning the absentee votes, and the LNP is winning the pre-poll vote. There are more pre-poll votes expected than absentee votes.
Most of the postal votes have been counted, and the LNP lead has dropped from 547 to 455 votes. This seat could still come into play if the remaining special votes break strongly towards Labor.
Mount Ommaney is now the closest LNP-Labor race in the state. The LNP was leading by 481 votes on Tuesday evening, but by Thursday evening this lead has been cut to 201 votes. With a substantial number of absentee votes yet to be counted, and most pre-poll votes not counted, Labor could easily close this gap and win their majority.
Labor has won 56.8% of the absentee votes, and exactly 50% of a small batch of prepoll votes. If they continue to poll a similar level in the absentee vote, they will need about 53% of the remaining prepoll votes to win.
Whitsunday was previously the closest race in the state. The LNP led by 163 votes on Tuesday evening, which was cut to 88 votes by Thursday morning, before blowing out to 355 votes by Thursday evening. Large number of pre-poll and absentee votes are yet to be counted, and these could easily reverse the result.
Barely 300 pre-poll votes have been counted in Whitsunday, and they have broken to Labor by more than 62%. I estimate there is over 2500 remaining pre-poll votes. If the remaining pre-poll votes flow to Labor at the same level, it will give Labor a lead of over 200 votes, with about 4000 absentee votes to be counted.