To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
SA – 26 Libs, 18 Labs, 3 Indis in the house. In the LC, 5 Libs, 4 Labs, a Green and a FF. Darley to miss out but come close.
Tassie – 7 Labor (2 in Braddon plus 2 in Denison at a stretch, plus one from each of Lyons, Franklin and Bass), 4 Greens (losing Braddon), 14 Libs (3 everywhere but Denison).
I’m expecting the Labor vote in Braddon to be strongly concentrated among Best and Green and that the second one, probably Best, will just sneak in after Lib leakage and exclusion of the Green MP.
Bass and Lyons should be fairly straight forward 3-1-1
Franklin is interesting because the Green and Lib vote will be heavily concentrated, whereas Dave O’Byrne will take a part of the Labor vote from the Premier and will probably come fourth in the actual primary vote, but I still think Lib preferences will overrun O’Byrne and get them three seats for a 3-1-1 result.
Denison is the hardest to guess, with a real shot of a second Lab (after Scott Bacon), second Green or Palmer’s candidate (heck, even Marti Zucco has an outside shot) taking the last seat. I have no confidence in saying it, but I’ll give the last seat to Labor for a 2-2-1 result.
SA – Liberals 28, Labor 17, Independents 2.
For the SA Upper House I’m leaning to predicting Liberals 5, Labor 4, Greens 1, Family First 1 – I say “leaning” because I still have a nagging suspicion that minor players will do better than expected, in which case I’d take a seat off both the Liberals and Labor.
Tasmania – Liberals 13, Labor 8, Greens 4.
Bass and Lyons will be identical – Liberals 3 and Labor 1 and Greens 1, hence a seat switching from Labor to the Liberals. Braddon will be Liberals 3-2 over Labor, with the Greens losing their seat to the Liberals. Denison and Franklin will stay the same, with the Liberals 2 and Labor 2 and Greens 1 – I just don’t think that the perceived need for majority government will sway Hobart voters who hold some degree hostility towards Tasmania’s loggers.
SA: Lib 29, ALP 15, Ind 3. Libs to gain every ALP seat under 5%.
(Leg Council – don’t know/care. The above 5-4-1-1 predictions seem reasonable.)
Tas: Lib 15, ALP 5, Grn 5. Every seat 3-1-1.
Very confidant that Libs will win easily in tas. Most likely result 14-7-4 (lib-lab-g)
Hung parliament in SA. Don’t know seat break down but can’t see libs winning enough seats to win outright. Much much less confidant on this prediction cf Tas
Given my prediction of a hung parliament I just want to have my time in the sun and gloat. The reason I made the prediction was due to a view, arising from the previous state election, that Labor would out campaign the Libs in the marginals. And it happened. Of course, the sand bagging could have burst at this election and you get a total wipe out. But this time I was (luckily) correct.
No doubt following the next election I will be a feather duster but at the moment the rooster!
Cock-a-doodle-do
Pollster
Comments are closed.