Hobart – Tasmania LC 2018

Incumbent MLC
Rob Valentine, since 2012.

Geography
Southern Tasmania. Hobart covers the centre of the Hobart urban area, including the suburbs of Hobart, North Hobart, South Hobart, Battery Point, New Town, Mount Stuart and part of Lenah Valley.

Redistribution
Hobart shifted south, losing parts of Lenah Valley and New Town to Elwick, and gaining a mostly rural area on the south-western fringe of Hobart from Nelson.

History
Hobart has existed continuously since the first Legislative Council election in 1856, with the exception of the 1999-2008 period when it was renamed Wellington. Labor has dominated Hobart for most of its recent history. The part held the seat for thirty years from 1952 to 1982, and again from 1994 until 2012.

Independent MP Hank Petrusma won the seat off Labor in 1982, and was re-elected in 1988 before leaving the upper house in 1992 in an unsuccessful attempt to win a seat in the House of Assembly for the Advance Tasmania minor party. His upper house seat was won by independent Jean Moore in the 1992 by-election.

Moore lost to Labor’s Doug Parkinson in 1994.

The seat of Hobart was renamed as Wellington in 1999, and Parkinson was re-elected in the renamed seat in 2000 and 2006. The district became Hobart again in 2009, and Parkinson retired in 2012.

Independent Rob Valentine, a former lord mayor of Hobart, won the seat in 2012 with 37% of the primary vote. The Greens came second, and Labor came third.

Candidates

  • Alan Barnett (Tasmanians 4 Tasmania)
  • Simon Behrakis (Liberal)
  • Richard Griggs
  • Brendon Hext (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
  • Chris Simcox
  • Rob Valentine

Assessment
Hobart is a progressive electorate and Rob Valentine is seen as one of the more left-wing members of the Legislative Council. Without strong opponents from Labor and the Greens it seems likely he will win comfortably with support of many Labor and Greens voters. It seems unlikely that a Liberal candidate could threaten Valentine in Hobart.

2012 result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Rob ValentineIndependent6,44637.05
Penelope AnnGreens3,93522.62
Dean WinterLabor3,34719.24
James SugdenIndependent2,35613.54
Paul HiscuttIndependent7684.41
John ForsterIndependent5473.14

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Rob ValentineIndependent10,61762.48
Penelope AnnGreens6,37637.52

Booth breakdown
Polling places in Hobart have been split into three parts: east, north and south. The north makes up a majority of election-day votes.

Rob Valentine topped the vote in all three areas, doing best in the north. The Greens did best in the south, while Labor did best in the north.

Voter groupValentine %Greens %Labor %Total votes% of votes
North37.3418.7922.218,47748.72
South33.3131.6616.263,69621.24
East34.3024.6317.102,14012.30
Other votes42.6420.9016.103,08617.74

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.