Ireland 2011 Archive

It is now Sunday evening in the Republic of Ireland, and most seats have been decided in their general election. The overall result is clear, with the governing Fianna Fail party decimated, their government partner the Green Party completely eliminated from the Dail, and opposition parties Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Fein winning record numbers of seats.

Fine Gael had earlier hoped to be able to govern alone with the support of some of the numerous independents, but instead will almost certainly govern in a large coalition with the second-biggest party, Labour. Ireland’s political system for the last ninety years has been dominated by two centre-right parties, who today only hold approximately 93 out of 166 seats in the Dail. It would probably make more sense for Fine Gael to go into government with Fianna Fail, with whom they share more ideology and who have been reduced to minor party status. Old habits die hard, however, and Fianna Fail have been blamed for the collapse of Ireland’s economy. After 14 years of sharing the opposition benches with Labour, Fine Gael look set to form government with them. This government will have over two-thirds of the seats in the Dail.

At the moment, 150 seats have been filled in the Dail, with twelve seats in three constituencies yet to be decided. Races in these three constituencies were delayed by extremely close counts at key points of elimination. The results are as follows:

The wipe-out of Fianna Fail hit them all over the country. In 2007, they won 19 of 47 seats in County Dublin. This time they only won one. They fell from 14 to 5 in Connacht and Ulster, losing their deputy leader Mary Coughlan in Donegal South West. In County Cork, they won five seats, down from nine, with their new leader Micheál Martin cushioning the blow. His constituency of Cork South-Central was the only place in the country where Fianna Fail managed to win two seats. In 2007 they managed to win two seats in 32 constituencies. There wasn’t a single constituency that didn’t elect a Fianna Fail member in 2007, but this time a majority of constituencies did not elect anyone from that party.

Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Fein made gains all over the country. Labour is now the largest party in Dublin, with 18 of 47 seats, up from 9 in 2007. In addition, the United Left Alliance, which includes the Socialist Party and other left-wing groups, won four seats in Dublin, and an additional seat in the country. All six Green Party seats were lost.

I have produced maps that attempt to display graphically and geographically the results of the election. Due to multi-member districts this is difficult to demonstrate. I have produced a map with a dot for every TD, with dots distributed evenly within each constituency, and then randomised within that constituency. It gives you a general sense of the representation of the parties. You can see them below the fold:

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11:10am – We’re getting early figures in for a bunch of constituencies. They are all confirming the trend that we have seen. In Donegal South-West, the Deputy PM, Mary Coughlan, is in trouble.

9:04am – I’ve been doing some number-crunching of the 2007 election results while we wait for figures. In 2007 Fianna Fail won 77 seats, to 51 for Fine Gael, 20 for Labour, 6 for the Green Party, 4 for Sinn Fein, and 6 others. Breaking down the seats between five regions (County Dublin, County Cork, Connacht-Ulster, Munster and Leinster), Dublin is by far the best region for Labour and the Greens, with 5 of 6 Greens elected there, and 9 of 20 Labour TDs. In constrast, Fine Gael only won 10 seats in Dublin, out of a total of 51.

8:23am – The RTE exit poll has Fine Gael polling 36%, with Labour on 20%, 15.5% for Independents and others, 15% for the governing Fianna Fail party, 10% for Sinn Fein and 2.7% for the Greens. This doesn’t appear to be enough for FG to form single-party government. Fianna Fail polled only 8% in Dublin, which could wipe them out entirely in the capital.

8:15am – It’s now early in the morning in Ireland, where votes will be counted over the weekend to determine the result in the 43 constituencies. Over the next few hours we should see primary vote figures in many constituencies, but it will take the next two days to count all the preferences. RTE Radio 1 is currently reading out an exit poll which I will post in a minute.

Ireland’s electoral system is one that is relatively familiar to Australians, but quite unusual around the world, using a system similar to Hare-Clark, used in Tasmania and the ACT.

The lower house of the Irish Parliament, the Dáil Éireann, has existed in various forms for over 90 years. The original Dáil was elected by single-member districts. It was created following the 1918 UK election, when most Irish seats were won by Sinn Fein. Those MPs refused to sit in the UK Parliament, and convened as the Dáil Éireann in Dublin.

Following the Irish War of Independence, Irish home rule was instituted in 1922, with the Dáil Éireann elected by the single transferable vote electoral system. This system has continued until today.

The modern Dáil Éireann is elected from 43 constituencies, electing a total of 166 Teachta Dála, or TDs. Each constituency elects between three and five TDs.

Elections are conducted by Single Transferable Vote, which is basically the system of proportional representation used in Australia for the Senate, the ACT, Tasmania, and all other state upper houses.

The key differences are slight but significant. There is no above-the-line voting in Ireland, and while candidates are almost always aligned with a party, they aren’t divided into separate parties on the ballot. Parties don’t necessarily run as many candidates as there are seats: indeed parties usually run only as many as they think can be elected in that constituency.

The system does tend to produce coalition governments and hung parliaments like any other proportional system, but unlike those in mainland Europe, it isn’t precisely proportional. With only 3-5 members per district the quota lies at between 16.7% and 25%, meaning most seats are won by major parties, with a bias against smaller parties.

In 2007, Fianna Fail won 77 seats, with 41.6% of the vote. Fine Gael won 51 seats, with 27.3% of the vote. Labour won 20 seats with 10.1% of the vote. The Green Party won 6 seats with 4.7% of the vote. Sinn Fein won 4 seats with 6.9% of the vote. The Progressive Democrats won two seats with 2.7%.

The long, painful death of the Irish government entered its final stage over the last few days, with mass resignations of Cabinet ministers and conflict between the two governing parties resulted in the general election being called for March 11.

Ireland’s government includes the major party Fianna Fail, who have been in power since 1997, and the Green Party, who joined the government in 2007. The government’s popularity collapsed in 2008 and 2009 as Ireland was hit severely by the global financial crisis.

Other Irish parties have benefited from this collapse. In particular, opposition parties Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams has resigned his seats in the British House of Commons and the Northern Ireland Legislative Assembly with an intention to move into the Irish legislature.

In the most recent Irish poll, Fianna Fail fell to equal-third place, polling 14% (down from 41.5% in 2007). Sinn Fein also polled 14%, up from 6.9%.

Fine Gael’s vote has climbed from 27.3% to 35%, and Labour’s vote from 10.1% to 21%.

In late 2010, Ireland was forced to accept a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. This controversial move further damaged the reputation of the government and resulted in calls from opposition politicians for an immediate election.

Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen agreed to call an election following the passage of the budget in early 2011 after the Greens called for an election early in 2011.

When Irish politicians returned from the Christmas break, rebel Fianna Fail politicians launched a spill (or, as the Irish call it, a ‘heave’) against their leader, Brian Cowen. He won a challenge spearheaded by Foreign Minister Micheál Martin, which resulted in Martin’s resignation as a minister.

Five other ministers resigned on Wednesday and Thursday. All five had announced they would not contest their seats at the next election, and it became clear that Cowen intended to replace them with more junior TDs (members of the Parliament) who were facing difficult races for re-election.

The plan collapsed when the Green Party refused to endorse the ministerial changes, claiming that they hadn’t been properly consulted on the plans. Following this, Brian Cowen called the election on Thursday.

Since Cowen’s election call, there have been renewed efforts by members of his party to remove him as leader, less than two months out from the election.

The election looks set to be a very interesting one, with the governing parties facing devastating losses. Over the next few weeks I will put up a few more posts about Irish politics and the Irish electoral system. It’s certainly an election worth watching.

With the Irish economy on the brink and in need for a bailout from international organisations and the European Union, Ireland is also on the verge of an election which has been pending for the last few years.

The junior coalition partner Green Party has called for a general election to be held in late January 2011. The Taoiseach (Prime Minister) has agreed to call an election in early 2011, despite the five-year term not expiring until May 2012. He has insisted that the government’s budget is passed before he will call an election.

Fianna Fail have been in government since 1997, and had two terms of stable and prosperous government. In 2007, they went into coalition with the Green Party, but things went badly for the government as Ireland was hit badly by the financial crisis of 2008 and has been in dire straits ever since.

The current government is extremely unpopular and it is being assumed that Fianna Fail will lose, and there is a possibility that the Greens could lose all of their parliamentary representation. It is expected that the election will result in a coalition of the opposition Fine Gael and Labour parties, with the only question being how much a share of governmental power each party will gain. Rare polls have suggested that Labour, which has always been Ireland’s third-biggest party, has the potential to overtake Fianna Fail in terms of votes and seats.

The government’s position in the Dail (lower house of the Parliament) has deteriorated to the point that it is unclear if they can command the support of the Dail, with a number of uncommitted TDs holding the balance of power after a number of defections and by-elections. This raised the possibility of the government falling entirely and bringing on an early election. It appears this will not be necessary, but it is yet to be seen whether the government will be able to pass the budget which may be necessary to fulfill the requirements of the bailout deal and has been set as a requirement before an election is called.

With Fianna Fail facing annihilation, there has already been talk about replacing their leader Brian Cowen, with one cabinet minister expressing interest in taking on the role.

Ireland’s election should be a fascinating one. The Republic of Ireland’s lower house is elected by the single transferable vote, with 43 constituencies electing 3-5 TDs (members of Parliament) each. I hope to blog about it as Ireland descends into an election in an environment of economic disaster. For the time being, you can download the electoral maps for the Dail for both the 2007 election and for the upcoming election from the Tally Room maps page.

For now I will return to my preparation for this weekend’s Victorian state election. I’m planning to finish the final five seat profiles tomorrow in time for the election.