By-elections 2018 Archive

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Podcast #3 – Mayo, Longman and Senate party-hopping

In this episode I’m joined by Peter Brent and Amanda McCormack. We preview the by-elections in Mayo and Longman, and discuss the phenomenon of party-hopping in the Senate.

The next episode is due the week before the by-elections but I’ve pushed it back to be recorded and released on the day after the by-elections, so keep an eye out for that.

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

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Podcast #2 – Braddon, Fremantle, Perth and how we name seats

In this episode I’m joined by Maiy Azize and Kevin Bonham. We preview the by-elections in Braddon, Fremantle and Perth, and discuss how we name electorates in light of Batman being renamed. In the news segment we discuss the results of the Darling Range by-election and begin the conversation about single-seat polling (sure to be revisited).

This episode involved guests joining me remotely, and there were some technical hiccups we’ll need to work on. You’ll notice that my guests are not with me for the whole show, but we still have a great conversation.

I mentioned this article about who federal electorates are named after. Kevin also mentions his analysis into single-seat polling which has since turned into this long and interesting post.

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

I’ll be back in two weeks, until then, enjoy this episode!

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Batman 2018 – the map tells the story

I love a good electoral map, that can tell a story about how a seat’s population votes in different ways and how the balance of those communities decides who wins an election. Batman has produced a fascinating map at recent elections, with the Greens dominating south of Bell Street while Labor rules the roost to the north.

The question at this election was whether the Greens could breach Bell Street and take more of the vote north of the road. The answer is: yes, they can. But they did so while losing support in their heartland, and the swing to Labor in the south was stronger than the Greens swing in the north.

The Greens gained swings in a majority of booths north of Bell Street, but most of the swings were small. The biggest swings took place at the northern fringe of the electorate in suburbs like Bundoora and Reservoir.

But they were dwarfed by Labor swings in the south – swings of 7% in the Thornbury area, and swings of 8% and 11% in Northcote.

This map shows the swings to Labor or the Greens across Batman:

I feel like this swing map is one of the most illuminating electoral maps I have ever made, and can be interpreted in many ways to tell the story of this by-election: Labor’s shift to the left from Feeney to Kearney, the Greens’ concerted push into the north and efforts to court more conservative voters with their last-minute message on dividend imputation, and a more equalised vote, with less difference between the strongest Labor and Greens areas.

Labor defeated the Greens by just 1% in 2016, so this differential swing was enough to make a big difference at this by-election.

This by-election hasn’t erased the gap between the north and the south. The Greens still won most booths south of Bell Street, and Labor won all but one booth north of this line.

To finish this post, here is the map showing the two-candidate-preferred vote for the winning party at each booth. You can compare this to the 2016 result here.

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Batman/SA election night live

Batman by-election results

CandidatePartyPrimaryPrimary %Swing2PP votes2PP %2PP Swing
Yvonne GentleRise Up Australia18952.562.56
Ged KearneyLabor3122642.228.013948353.382.1
Alex BhathalGreens3047041.195.573448346.62-2.1
Kevin BaileyConservatives47246.396.39
Tegan BurnsPeople’s Party3580.480.48
Debbie RobinsonLiberty Alliance9571.291.29
Teresa Van LieshoutIndependent8751.181.18
Adrian WhiteheadIndependent6170.830.83
Mark McDonaldSustainable Australia73711
Miranda SmithAnimal Justice21072.851.42

Primary booths reporting: 44/52
2CP booths reporting: 44/52
Last updated at: 23:06

11:23pm – As for South Australia, the Liberal Party has won government, almost certainly with a majority. There is, however, a handful of seats still in play. The Liberal Party could win as many as 26 seats, but is leading in 25.

The upper house will see the major parties and the Greens hold steady, while the rest of the crossbench shifts. The Dignity Party has lost their sole seat, while the Conservatives have lost one of the two seats they inherited from Family First, with both those seats going to SA Best. The new government will need either SA Best or the Greens to pass legislation, in addition to the other party, or one of the other two members. One of these members, John Darley, was allied with Nick Xenophon when he succeeded Xenophon in the upper house in 2007 and when he won re-election in 2014.

11:19pm – I’m going to finish up this liveblog now, with a summary of each election. Firstly, Batman.

I’ll be back in a few minutes with a separate post showing the maps for Batman, but the quick summary is that we are still waiting for some pre-poll votes, as well as quite a lot of postal votes, but they hold no hope for the Greens. On current numbers, Ged Kearney has gained a 2.1% swing to Labor.

There was a very clear trend where the Greens gained small swings in northern booths, while Labor gained large swings at the southern end, including a gobsmacking 34% swing in Northcote West. We just received the result from the Northcote pre-poll booth, which produced a 6.7% swing to Labor.

10:27pm – Current numbers suggest that Labor and Liberal will each maintain their four upper house seats, with two SA Best members and one Green. So that’s a loss for Dignity Party’s Kelly Vincent and the Conservatives’ Robert Brokenshire.

10:04pm – We’ve now got the votes in the Thornbury pre-poll in the centre of Batman, with Labor gaining a swing of 2.8% in that booth. This has properly shut the door on the Greens there.

10:01pm – So there are 23 seats which are locked on for the Liberal Party, with them looking good to win Newland. They are behind, but still with a shot, in Mawson, while Heysen is up in the air. So they could end up on as many as 26 seats. Even if they don’t win any of these seats, the independent MP in Mount Gambier should give them the numbers they need.

9:58pm – If you’ve found this analysis useful, tonight and throughout the campaign, maybe you could consider signing up as a patron?

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9:31pm – I’ve been focusing on analysing data at the Guardian liveblog but here’s where things stand at 9:30:

  • Labor looks set to win the Batman by-election with a swing of over 1%. We’ve just started receiving pre-poll votes, but there’s no evidence of a shift in the vote.
  • The Liberal Party look set to win a majority in the South Australian election, with a few seats just firming up now. SA Best may not win any seats, with only one seat still in play for the third party.

7:41pm – Things don’t look good for Alex Bhathal and the Greens in Batman. Nearly every booth is swinging to Labor after preferences, with some large swings in southern booths.

7:11pm – After three booths, the swing to the Greens after preferences is 0.88%.

7:07pm – First three booths for the Greens in Batman include two large booths in Labor-friendly Reservoir. Overall the Greens vote is up 8.9%, while Labor is up 2.2%.

6:38pm – And polls have now closed in South Australia. Still no data from Batman.

6:00pm – Polls have just closed in the by-election for the federal seat of Batman in Melbourne’s inner north. Polls will close in half an hour for the South Australian state election, with polls closing in three hours in the lower-profile Cottesloe state by-election in Perth. I’ll be using AEDT times for my coverage tonight. I’ll also be dropping in to the Guardian’s election night liveblog.

For the Batman by-election I will be posting overall results (top of the page), which include swings based on the vote in 2016 at the booths reported so far. This can be extrapolated to determine projected final votes. Hopefully this is useful.

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Super saturday – election day thread

Polls have now opened in the South Australian state election and the federal Batman by-election, and will be opening in the state by-election in Cottesloe within the next half-hour.

This post is mostly to provide a place to discuss today’s events, but I did want to touch briefly on the two statewide polls released last night for South Australia.

Both have very similar numbers, with the Liberal Party leading on 34%, Labor on 31%, and SA Best on 16% (Reachtel) or 17% (Newspoll). We know that Newspoll has dialled down their numbers for SA Best to reflect the fact that they were running everywhere (the last poll had them on a statewide figure of 27% but only 21% if you exclude voters who can’t vote for them), presumably Reachtel is similar.

A vote of 16-17% would be very good for a minor party, and will undoubtedly be enough to win some seats, but it’ll be a small bench and suggests that Nick Xenophon may struggle to win Hartley (as a local poll has emphasised).

I’ll be running a liveblog here while also contributing to the Guardian’s liveblog. The main thing I plan to include here is a model matching the booths in Batman. Of course, expect some booth results maps late in the night (this time I’m confident I’ll get access to the data on the night).

Good luck voting!