ALP 6.9%
Incumbent MP
Cameron Dick, since 2009.
Geography
South-East Brisbane. Greenslopes covers the Brisbane suburbs of Holland Park and Holland Park West, and parts of Greenslopes, Coorparoo, Camp Hill, Mount Gravatt and Mount Gravatt East.
History
The seat of Greenslopes has existed since 1960. In that time the seat has always been won by a party of government.
The seat was won in 1960 by Liberal candidate Keith Hooper. He had previously held the seat of Buranda since 1957. He held Greenslopes until his death in 1977.
In 1977 the seat was won by Bill Hewitt. He had previously held the seat of Chatsworth for the Liberals since 1966. He was defeated in Greenslopes in 1983 by National Party candidate Leisha Harvey.
Harvey became a minister in the Ahern government in 1987. In 1989 she lost her seat to Labor candidate Gary Fenlon.
Fenlon was re-elected in 1992 before losing to Liberal candidate Ted Radke in 1995. Fenlon won the seat back off Radke in 1998. He then went on to be re-elected repeatedly in 2001, 2004 and 2006.
In 2009, Fenlon retired and was succeeded by Cameron Dick. The new member for Greenslopes was immediately promoted to cabinet and has served first as Attorney-General and then as Minister for Education in the Bligh government.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Cameron Dick is running for re-election. The LNP is running police officer Ian Kaye.
- Emma-Kate Rose (Greens)
- Cameron Dick (Labor)
- Ian Kaye (Liberal National)
Political situation
Greenslopes has a history as a bellwether seat. With a 6.9% margin the seat could very well be vulnerable to the LNP.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Cameron Dick | ALP | 12,450 | 46.3 | -5.0 |
| Ian Kaye | LNP | 10,172 | 37.8 | +4.5 |
| Darryl Rosin | GRN | 3,382 | 12.6 | +0.5 |
| Brad Armstrong | DSQ | 455 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Doug Russell | IND | 444 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Cameron Dick | ALP | 14,368 | 56.9 | -4.3 |
| Ian Kaye | LNP | 10,864 | 43.1 | +4.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Greenslopes have been divided into four areas. From north to south, these are Coorparoo, Greenslopes, Holland Park and Mount Gravatt.
The ALP won the most primary votes in Holland Park, Coorparoo and Mount Gravatt, with the margin varying from 9.1% to 13.7%. The LNP won more votes in Greenslopes, outpollingthe ALP by 5.5%.
| Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Holland Park | 48.1 | 36.0 | 12.9 | 6,753 | 25.1 |
| Coorparoo | 46.2 | 37.1 | 13.1 | 5,794 | 22.6 |
| Mount Gravatt | 49.2 | 35.5 | 12.2 | 4,051 | 15.1 |
| Greenslopes | 39.8 | 45.3 | 11.0 | 3,846 | 14.3 |
| Other votes | 46.4 | 37.4 | 12.9 | 6,459 | 24.0 |
Where’s the 58% LNP booth in the centre?
I feel that Ian Kaye, second time around will have the community support. Dick will be tough to beat, but as a long serving policeman, kaye will know the mood of the electorate and be able to capitalise on the 2009 foundation.
I think Kaye will come out holding the seat with abouta 2.5% margin.
@Matt,
the 58% booth is Meridian Park. A tiny booth in a reasonably swanky part of the District. There’s swankier places, but voters in those places have to share booths with the hoi polloi.
Ian Kaye has been out and about at public events (e.g. Girl Guide AGMs) in the company of LNP City Councillors for well over 12 months.
d
My prediction: LNP gain, especially given its bellwether history.
Anton,
According to Sportsbet Cameron Dick is at better odds to hold on to Greenslopes than Kate Jones in Ashgrove. A seat to watch on election night and believe Cameron Dick will hold this seat in a tight contest.
This may be true Bruce, but Sportsbet still shows Kaye having better odds of winning Greenslopes than Dick, and I still think Kaye will win at the end of the day.
I could be wrong though, has the area changed much since the mid-1990s?
Point taken Anton. I reckon Cameron Dick still has a 50/50 chance holding the seat. It all depends on next Newspoll especially if the LNP 2pp lead over Labor has closed from 16 points. It is certainly a seat to watch on election night.
LNP gain….given the polls show no signs of tightening.
Another seat like Yeerongpilly which likely would have remained with Labor under compulsory preferential voting. Greens and ALP combine to defeat themselves and hand the seat to the LNP.