ALP 24.8%
Incumbent MP
Anthony Albanese, since 1996.
Geography
Inner West of Sydney. Grayndler covers the local government areas of Marrickville and Ashfield and parts of Canterbury and Leichhardt. Main suburbs include Leichhardt, Newtown, Marrickville, Petersham, Lilyfield, Dulwich Hill, Sydenham, Tempe, Hurlstone Park, Ashbury, Ashfield, Summer Hill and Haberfield.
Redistribution
Grayndler was slightly expanded to cover a small part of Ashfield previously covered by Lowe.
History
Grayndler was created in the 1949 redistribution, and has always been held by the ALP. The seat was first won by Fred Daly, who had previously held the nearby seat of Martin since 1943. Daly was a highly popular MP and served as a minister in the Whitlam government before his retirement in 1975.
The seat was won by Tony Whitlam at the election following his father’s dismissal as Prime Minister in 1975, but he was replaced by Frank Stewart at the 1977 election following the abolition of Stewart’s former seat of Lang. Stewart had previously served as a minister in the Whitlam government, and had been in Parliament since 1953. Stewart died in 1979, and the following by-election was won by the Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party, Leo McLeay.
McLeay held the seat until the 1993 election, serving as Speaker from 1989 until 1993. At the 1993 election he was forced to move to the neighbouring seat of Watson in order to free up Grayndler for federal minister Jeannette McHugh, whose seat of Phillip had been abolished.
McLeay held Watson until 2004, and McHugh retired at the 1996 election, when the seat was won by another Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party, Anthony Albanese, after Albanese had arranged McHugh’s move to Grayndler in 1993. Albanese has held the seat ever since and is now a senior cabinet minister and Leader of the House in the Rudd government.
Candidates
Anthony Albanese is running again. The Greens have preselected former Mayor of Marrickville Sam Byrne. The Liberal Party is standing university student Alexander Dore.
Political situation
This seat is nowhere near as safe as the large two-party preferred margin suggests. The Greens polled only 3% less than the Liberal Party in 2007, and if the Greens manage to overtake the Liberals a much smaller two-party preferred margin would be produced. A swing of about 10% from the ALP to the Greens would reduce the Labor vote below 50% and put the Greens in second place on primary votes and would make the seat winnable for the Greens. Having said that, it is unlikely that this scenario will happen in 2010.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Albanese | ALP | 46,509 | 55.47 | +4.77 |
| Daniel Caffery | LIB | 17,485 | 20.86 | -4.77 |
| Saeed Khan | GRN | 15,675 | 18.70 | -1.34 |
| Jeffrey Gabriel | DEM | 1,407 | 1.68 | -0.35 |
| Pip Hinman | SA | 1,394 | 1.66 | +0.45 |
| Ehab Hennien | CDP | 1,042 | 1.24 | +1.06 |
| Patrick O’Connor | SEP | 328 | 0.39 | +0.39 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Albanese | ALP | 62,821 | 74.93 | +3.74 |
| Daniel Caffery | LIB | 21,019 | 25.07 | -3.74 |
Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.
Booth breakdown
Grayndler is split between four local government areas. Most of Ashfield and all of Marrickville, as well as parts of Leichhardt and Canterbury. I have divided booths between these local government areas. About half the population lives within Marrickville local government area, so I also divided Marrickville booths into two areas: those in the Camperdown-Petersham-Newtown-Enmore-Stanmore area and those in the rest of the council area.
The ALP polled in the low 50s in Ashfield, Petersham-Stanmore and Leichhardt, while polling closer to 60% in Marrickville and Canterbury. The Greens beat the Liberals in Marrickville and Petersham-Stanmore. The Greens performed most strongly in the Petersham-Stanmore areas, where the Greens polled over 27%, far ahead of the Liberals.
Polling booths in Grayndler. Marrickville in red, Petersham-Stanmore in yellow, Leichhardt in green, Ashfield in blue, Canterbury in orange.
| Voter group | ALP % | LIB % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Marrickville | 61.54 | 15.71 | 17.86 | 20,525 | 24.48 |
| Ashfield | 54.16 | 26.88 | 14.17 | 17,320 | 20.66 |
| Petersham-Stanmore | 51.55 | 15.72 | 27.23 | 13,662 | 16.30 |
| Leichhardt | 52.36 | 24.62 | 18.71 | 10,173 | 12.13 |
| Canterbury | 59.06 | 24.43 | 11.98 | 5,525 | 6.59 |
| Other votes | 53.28 | 21.65 | 19.65 | 16,635 | 19.84 |
Polling booths in Grayndler, showing Labor primary votes at the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Grayndler, showing Liberal primary votes at the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Grayndler, showing Greens primary votes at the 2007 election.
Interesting..why did McLeay have to move to Watson to accomodate McHugh? Wouldn’t it have been simpler to just move McHugh to Watson, especially considering that Lakemba is not much further from Coogee than Marrickville?
Perhaps because the Left controls the branches in Grayndler. Tony Whitlam was a loss to the federal parliament and its an indictment of the NSW ALP that they pushed him to running for St George in 1977 (which he lost). Daly’s move to Grayndler in 1949 from Martin (which Labor held in 1949) reflected some Byzantine fighting for seats.
Pip Hinman is running again for the Socialist Alliance.
“Pip Hinman is running again for the Socialist Alliance.”
There was no doubt in my mind that she wouldn’t. I think I can comfortably predict that she will be the SA candidate for Marrickville for the next State and Council elections (and probably the few after that too). Pip, of course, is a journalist for the GLW.
All their candidates are ‘journalists’ aren’t they?
Well, I’ll be kind and just say that the potential candidate pool for the SA is not deep.
Sam Byrne named as the Greens candidate.
Does anyone know who the liberal candidate is yet?
I remember reading in The Australian in 1993 that there was a formal or informal rule in the NSW ALP at that time that Ministers had to be found a seat. I also remember reading that there was a fight between right and left for the Ministerial seat that McHugh won as her seat had been or would likely be abolished, and she’d have to be found a seat if she became a minister.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/30/2940836.htm
Sylvia Hale to contest preselection with Fiona Byrne for the state seat of Marrickville.
Byrne would have a much better chance of winning. While Hale may have the support of the Green base, Byrne is far less grating to the ‘Marrickville mainstream’ and would prove a far better long-term bet.
I wrote my thoughts about Hale in PB and won’t repeat them here, but I think this could be a real crossroads moment for the Greens.
I hope Ben puts together guides on seats to watch in NSW election. Discussing the Greens preselection makes sense there. Anyway whoever can crack The Warren would be the better candidate.
That’s the main challenge facing Grayndler as well.
What’s “The Warren”?
Very working class suburb at the very south of Marrickville Council, near Canterbury. It votes very heavily Labor.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/05/2944643.htm
Fiona Byrne wins Marrickville preselection by a single vote.
Good luck to her.
Alex Dore is the liberal candidate.
http://nsw.liberal.org.au/federal-candidates/alexander-dore.html
Hmmm, a Uni student. Me thinks they’re playing dead so the Greens can give Albo a scare.
I was putting up Greens corflutes along Illawara Rd., in the heart of Labor heartland and Anthony Albanese happened to walk by. A bit of a jovial exchange but he did say “You’re the guys who’re trying to put me out of the job!” That sort of self-entitlement goes to show why a “safe seat” is bad for democracy.
Interesting though… No corflutes yet, but it seems Alex the Liberal has a supporter page:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Dore/138721802806951
@ deconst. Grayndler is anything BUT a safe seat, so I don’t understand the comment. Where are your prefs going, or is that a rude question?
Grayndler has been a safe seat for most of Albanese’s time in the seat, which explains his attitude.
Who cares where the Greens preference in Grayndler? There’s no way that the Liberals could challenge for the seat, and if the Greens overtake the Liberals the preferences won’t be distributed.
It sounds like he was joking. I’ve run into Albo a few times while volunteering for the Greens/Dems, he seems like a pretty nice guy.
No one cares? Really? But you are right, Ben, Greens prefs don’t matter, they will run second and won’t be counted. But people other than myself WILL be interested, if only for the symbolism. I asked because the just announced pref “deal” significantly excluded some Greens branches, and local Greens are hostile to Labor and anyone on the left they tag as not “on side”. And I agree with Hamish. I’ve had professional dealings with Albo and have always found him friendly, courteous and far, far from “entitled”. I am NOT a member of his party, btw, or any other.
Well, in any case, reports are that council has taken down both Green and Labor corflutes around the inner west stations so it’s all a bit moot then.
Never had any personal dealings with Albo, so not sure what to expect. And.. yes.. the general take by the media is that the Greens have as much chance of winning Grayndler as the Liberals have of winning Griffith.
Vote for Pip Hinman, Socialist Alliance
40+ years of dedication to the cause of peace and human rights