LIB 4.3%
Incumbent MP
Don Randall, since 2001.
Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including most of the Peel region. Canning covers the City of Armadale on the edge of Perth as well as the local government areas of Boddington, Murray, Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Waroona in the Peel region. Canning also covers most of the coastal City of Mandurah.
Redistribution
Canning moved south, losing territory north of Armadale to Hasluck and Tangney, including the suburbs of Huntingdon and Canning Vale. Prior to the redistribution, Canning only covered those parts of Mandurah south of the Peel Inlet, and the redistribution saw Canning take in the Mandurah CBD. Canning also gained Boddington Shire from Pearce. The redistribution cut the Liberal margin from 5.6% to 4.3%.
History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.
Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.
The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.
Gear was defeated in 1996 by Ricky Johnston (LIB), who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Jane Gerick (ALP) in 1998.
Gerick was defeated narrowly by Don Randall (LIB) in 2001, and Randall has held the seat ever since, holding it by a 5.6% margin in 2007.
Candidates
Don Randall is being challenged by Alannah MacTiernan, state member for Armadale and Minister for Planning and Infrastructure under the previous Labor state government.
Political situation
MacTiernan is a strong candidate, as state MP for a large proportion of the federal electorate and former minister. Randall has held the seat for over a decade but his margin is not particularly large.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Randall | LIB | 42,639 | 49.70 | -3.04 |
| John Hughes | ALP | 31,699 | 36.95 | +4.07 |
| Denise Reid | GRN | 6,396 | 7.45 | +2.40 |
| Kevin Swarts | CDP | 2,427 | 2.83 | +0.42 |
| Brian Deane | ON | 1,264 | 1.47 | -1.26 |
| Rodney Grasso | FF | 1,112 | 1.30 | +0.29 |
| Brian McCarthy | CEC | 261 | 0.30 | -0.56 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Randall | LIB | 47,689 | 55.58 | -3.96 |
| John Hughes | ALP | 38,109 | 44.42 | +3.96 |
Booth breakdown
While the seat includes large rural areas, most of the population lives in two urban areas. Over 40% of votes in 2007 were cast in Armadale and over 30% cast in Mandurah. The Liberal Party won a majority in all regions, but only won a narrow majority in Armadale, winning larger majorities in the rest of the seat.
Polling booths in Canning. Armadale in blue, Serpentine-Jarrahdale in yellow, Murray in red, Waroona-Boddington in orange, Mandurah in green.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
| Armadale | 9.18 | 50.87 | 25,628 | 41.78 |
| Mandurah | 6.43 | 55.38 | 20,151 | 32.85 |
| Serpentine-Jarrahdale | 8.33 | 60.33 | 6,484 | 10.57 |
| Murray | 6.21 | 56.00 | 6,429 | 10.48 |
| Waroona-Boddington | 5.55 | 57.92 | 2,650 | 4.32 |
| Other votes | 7.89 | 56.12 | 15,349 |
Polling booths in Canning, showing results of the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Canning, showing results of the 2007 election around Armadale.
Polling booths in Canning, showing results of the 2007 election in Mandurah.
Interesting the sharp voting divide in Mandurah. I’m assuming the areas with Labor majorities were all in Brand in 2007?
MDM: Possibly, but Mandurah does have a rich / poor divide like that. In state parliament, Dawesville (west of the estuary, more retired folk and beach lovers) is pretty safe for the Libs, but Mandurah is one of Labor’s safest seats. Funny thing is, it was Liberal too until 2001, and got big fat swings to ALP on 2001 and 2005… even one of the few ALP swings in 2008, which is possibly due to the Mandurah line.
Speaking of which, if MacTiernan campaigns on having been in charge of building the railway, I’d expect to see her vote go up in Mandurah, particularly east of the estuary (where the line ends). The candidate last time was actually from Mandurah, but rather low-profile… I thought he was the other John Hughes until I googled him. (No, not the 16 Candles guy… other other John Hughes. Everyone in Perth knows who he is.)
As for Armadale and Kelmscott, you can see where the phrase ‘wrong side of the tracks’ comes from – that divide between Labor and Liberal booths is the Armadale line and Albany Hwy. West of that line are some of the suburbs in Perth you least want to be in after dark, like Westfield; to the east, it’s much nicer houses on the upper reaches of the Canning River and getting into the hills.
Mandurah was one of the 4 or so seats that actually swung to Labor at the last State Election (as was MacTiernans seat of Armadale). The state MP David Templeman is a charismatic guy and has turned Mandurah from a safe Liberal Seat into a safe Labor Seat with only a little bit of help from boundary changes.
Yes, the inlet (which is clear on the map) was the boundary between Brand and Canning in 2007.
It would be great to see three party preferred outcomes as well as two party for seats where the margin is within 5-10.
A margin of 5 would be short term, showing that a different party is still in the running for this seat depending on preference flows. Whereas a 10% margin could be for areas would in the future could go to the third party.
Just new to this website and really liking the coverage, hungry for more.