Pullenvale – Brisbane 2020

Council margin – LNP 18.0% vs GRN
Mayoral margin – LNP 21.0%

Incumbent councillor
Kate Richards, since 2016.

Geography
North-western Brisbane. Pullenvale covers a large part of the Brisbane City Council area with little to no population, but most of its population lies in suburbs on north side of the Brisbane River to the west of the city centre, including Kenmore, Bellbowrie and Moggill.

Redistribution
There were some changes to Pullenvale’s northern boundary with the Gap, but the main population shift was on the eastern edge of the ward, where Pullenvale gained part of Chapel Hill from Walter Taylor. This change made very little impact on the margin.

History
Pullenvale has been a safe Liberal ward for a long time.

Margaret de Wit held this ward from 1997 to 2016. De Wit won with a 17.4% margin in 2000, 29% in 2004, 30.6% in 2008 and 31.2% in 2012 (the last time against the Greens).

de Wit rose to the position of chairman of the council, which she held until she announced her council retirement in 2015.

The LNP’s Kate Richards won Pullenvale in 2016, with an 18% margin. She suffered a 13% swing after preferences, but ultimately held on with one of the safest margins in the city.

Candidates
Sitting LNP councillor Kate Richards has been disendorsed, and is running as an independent.

Assessment
Pullenvale is normally a very safe LNP ward, but the independent candidacy of Kate Richards throws this seat into doubt.

2016 council result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kate Richards Liberal National 15,36660.5-14.460.5
John Belchamber Greens 5,41921.3+9.421.6
Catherine Abel Labor 4,62818.2+5.018.0
Informal5752.2

2016 council two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kate Richards Liberal National 15,79468.1-13.068.0
John Belchamber Greens 7,39131.9+13.032.0
Exhausted2,2288.8

2016 mayoral result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 16,20763.5-10.663.4
Rod Harding Labor 4,98519.5+7.119.5
Ben Pennings Greens 3,43813.5+1.313.6
Jeffrey HodgesIndependent4751.9+1.91.8
Karel BoelePeople Decide1990.8+0.80.8
Jim EldridgeIndependent1390.5+0.50.5
Jarrod WirthIndependent1010.4+0.40.4
Informal5112.0

2016 mayoral two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 16,75171.2-11.271.0
Rod Harding Labor 6,78528.8+11.229.0
Exhausted2,0087.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Pullenvale have been divided into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.

The LNP’s two-candidate-preferred margin varied from 65% in the south-west to 73% in the north-west. They did even better on the mayoral ballot, but with a similar pattern.

The ALP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13% in the north-west to 20% in the south-west.

Voter groupALP prim councilLNP 2CP councilLNP 2PP mayoralTotal votes% of votes
South-West20.164.768.89,01433.5
East17.068.270.17,63028.4
North-West13.073.175.72,2348.3
Other votes17.971.074.14,59217.1
Pre-poll17.968.971.83,44112.8

Election results in Pullenvale at the 2016 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs Greens) for council, two-party-preferred votes for lord mayor, and council primary votes for Labor.

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46 COMMENTS

  1. Well that’s a spanner in the works. One presumes that whoever the endorsed LNP candidate ends up being would still start as the favourite, but if Kate Richards continues professing innocence and were to run as an independent (and preferences LNP last out of spite?) things could happen…

    Will the CCC be able to decide an outcome before election day?

  2. CCC and judicial system seem to have an attitude of the longer a matter takes the more we will trust the final result.
    Courier Mail revealed yesterday that a Councillor or Mayor who is suspended because of an unfinished corruption charge can stand for office again and if elected would immediately be suspended till court decision.
    Once charged the
    Trial should be finalised in a week unless the accused seeks an extension.
    Court cases take far too long too finalise.
    It is very clear that Local Government needs to be more rigidly regulated by Local Government Department.
    Once a person has worked in Real Estate they should forfeit right to be employed or elected to any Local Council and once elected to Council absolutely no development should be approved if Councillor or ex councillor has any interest in development
    We need complete isolation of Real Estate, Development and Local Government.

  3. Bennee, Libs might be in trouble if it was Compulsory preferential, but even the ALP->Green flows are too leaky for anything to change here.

    Moggill in the state election is more winnable for Greens or Labor

  4. Moggil would be totally unwinnable for Greens if their taxation policies are hi-lighted. The electorate is relatively wealthy. Their Petrol prices are about 30c+ per Litre above rest of Brisbane and they do not seem to notice.

    They are Greenish socially but will turn neo-liberal libertarian if there is a risk of not being able to pay their mortgage. There has been an refugee activist on Moggil Rd protesting over last month but I doubt if electorate has a single refugee migrant. Plenty of Indians and Chinese but no factory workers let alone factorys.

  5. John
    ALP> Greens and Greens> ALP preference flows are tight with little leakage. Greens Preferences are a bit undisciplined but they go tightly Black to grey rather than Black to white.
    Where the lack of discipline becomes evident is where there is a sitting candidate who is seen by rest of community as being less than a pillar of community standards.
    In negotiating with Greens major parties would be silly not to argue that Greens have very little to negotiate with. DirectingGreen Preferences would be like herding cats.

  6. I was talking about exhausting votes – looks like nearly half the ALP votes exhausted last time.

    Given the animosity between QLD Greens amd Labor, and Labor’s closeness with the fossil fuel industry, plus their surprise decision to back down on Compulsory Preferential, I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor do “just vote 1” cards in Greens target seats, then run an “only Labor can beat the LNP here” campaign.

  7. John
    Valid point but I I do not think Green Voters will not preference at least as far all is ALP is concerned.

    Greens have been bottom of my ballot except in the one case where an ex uniformed NAZI stood.

    I am sure that Jhomsthon Sti

  8. John realistically only ALP can beat Liberals. Only other scenario that has the slightest possibility is an ALP -Grens coalition. Big problem with Queensland Local Government elections is that we could end up with an ALP Mayor with Libs holding a majority of Wards or vice versa.
    ALP are currently not campaigning effectively.

  9. Moggil Road now has a Liberal Flashing Neon sign outside Federal MP’s office . Sign alternates between Council candidate for Pullenvale Kate Richards and State candidate for Moggil. Libs must be more worried than I previously said was case.I think both of them however are very safe seats.
    Overall Deb Frecklington is running a very negative
    campaign for State election which is not cutting to to Mr and Mrs Jones voters who switch from ALP to Libs and vice versa. She is rousing the party faithful but not the undecided.

  10. I am not sure if Kate Richards is endorsed or not but she is on a LNP flashing sign.
    When disendorsing a candidate no party has a planned process to deal with all the matters that has to be done.

  11. ”LNP refers Brisbane councillor to corruption watchdog but Kate Richards says party faction vilifying her” Potentially disendorsed due to an incident last month, If so she should win anyway with a significantly reduced margin, I don’t see Labor winning this but the Greens could have outside chance, Possibly decided under 10% Lib vs Green, If the Liberals decide to put up a new candidate (Depending when the filing deadline is) They could put up former member for Ryan, Jane Prentice since this ward covers most of Ryan.

  12. Daniel: this ward is actually entirely contained within Ryan.
    Jane was previously a councillor actually, in Walter Taylor ward. I doubt she would now stand for Pullenvale.

    This is deep blue LNP territory, whoever the LNP end up putting up here should get in fairly easily.

  13. Interestingly Kate Richards has been disendorsed but the reasons for her referral to CCC are not public.
    Have Libs removed her from flashing sign on Moggil Road?
    Clearly political parties need to insert some managerialism into their internal structure to eliminate paying to advertise a candidate they have disendorsed. I doubt if this problem is confined to Liberal Party. I once handed out a How to Vote authorised by someone who had defected and was standing for another party. Electoral Commission advised that endorsement if legitimate could not be revoked merely for changing parties.

  14. Well, the LNP preselection is over, and the winner was #GregFromMarketing. So that will be two female LNP incumbents dumped and replaced by men in the western suburbs in the last two years.

  15. Before anyone can make an assumption that the reason Kate Richards was disendorsed because of her gender we need details of CCC complaint.This will come in time. CCC is understandably fed up with political activists using complaints process as a precursor to electoral endorsement/ disendorsement.

    I for one have faith in CCC processing of complaints but recognise that the mere existence of a complaint is now just a part of Party pre-selection process.

    Today’s The Australian has details of the internal shenanigans of West Brisbane Liberal Party endorsement . process. In fact it looks like it is as honest as the ALP’s was during the 195’s split. Apparently no actual bashing’s yet.

  16. Wow, Slam Dunk, Jane Prentice has failed yet again to gain pre-selection. I think the argument of her age is nonsense because she is only 66 and she is often regarded as a modern moderate liberal. The same people that ousted Turnbull (The Dutton Camp) ousted Jane in Ryan and now they didn’t want her for this ward. Well at least she knows how to WIN elections because she got a swing to her every single 3 election she won. Even in 2016 against the trend. While Pullenvale will likely stay LNP it will be on a significantly reduced margin. I must note Ryan almost became a marginal seat against the trend likely due to her dumping, Had Labour won the election, Ryan would have been very close (Its more marginal than a dozen of once marginal QLD seats!) . I guess we will never know but Jane likely would have increased her margin in Ryan last election. Nevertheless despite her failure here she could try to get the Maiwar preselection. Because Scott Emmerson has ruled himself out running and she is certainly the best shot of winning the seat back of the Greens, Maiwar is marginal whether its Greens vs LNP or Lab vs LNP and it is important to get cross-over votes and Jane can do just that. a conservative would be unlikely to do well in these kind of regions. Jane shouldn’t give up and should consider Maiwar because i do not think Labour nor Liberal want Maiwar to turn into a safe Greens seat because the Greens typically hold onto their seats Indefinitely unlike Independents.

  17. Driving down Moggil Road today and whole sign has dissapeared.
    Comes to something where it is easier to remove sign than change the software.

    Corflute for Julian Simonds for Ryan up in Moggil Road. This is 2 1/2 years before election. Surely this is a bit early in such a safe seat as Ryan.

    A large Bill board up on Bruce Highway for Longman LNP Terry Young along with Scott Morrison.

    Are Libs running scared???

  18. Why is it that for the life of me I cannot work out who is the actual council candidate for the Pullenvale ward in the upcoming March 28th election..?? I have the LNP and Greens and maybe Kate as independent but Labour seems to be MIA….. can someone please enlighten me..
    Thanks
    Moggill resident

  19. It would take a highly committed ALP supporter to run in Pullenvale because they have not a snowball’s chance in hell of winning.

  20. I have done a search for ALP candidate and only ALP involvement in Pullenvale seems to be discussion about Liberal candidate selection procedure and Lord Mayor Quirks personal involvement in This procedure.

  21. Labor would have to, just because of the mayoral vote. Same reason they run candidates in crazy safe Nat seats in WA / Vic / NSW – it’s more campaigning for the upper house. Even the 20-25% they could get in Pullenvale counts for 1% across Brisbane council, so if they don’t run a candidate and half their mayoral vote goes missing, that’s 0.5% off their vote. Considering they’re trying to overturn a 9.5% margin, every little bit helps.

  22. Bird of Paradox
    Completely agree. In my view every political party should run in every seat every election. Changes to Electoral Act jacking up deposit and rewarding 4% Plus votes have resulted in some parties losing track of why they exist. In 1950’s to 1970’s DLP ran in most seats, Today it is touch a FF go whether candidate for a minor party stands. Solution drop deposit for multiple nominations.

  23. Driving into Pullenvale
    along Moggil Rd some sign of campaigning by Greens but Liberal Flashing sign now flashing Walter Taylor candidate. Greens had two roadside stalls one at entry to Mogggil Rd from Western Freeway and other in Kenmore both promoting Pullenvale candidate. I very much doubt if they have a hope in hades of winning but that is not impression campaigning is giving. No election pamphlets yet in Bellbowrie letterboxes.

  24. Well well well, Kate Richards confirmed she’s running.

    Who on earth is making the final 2?and how will preferences follow? Potential for conservative vote splitting in OPV?

    Many potential outcomes now (still most likely the LNP candidate wins, but closer).

  25. This is turning into a very interesting seat.

    Speaking to a couple from seat today they had as little idea of what was going on as the rest of us.

    It is believed that Libs have a candidate but Labor still candidate less.

    I doubt if sitting member has much of a personal vote So my prediction is Final two being Libs and Richards with both ALP and GreenPreferences being distributed. My prediction no less than 20% and no more than 30% for Libs. ALP and Greens with ALP on less than 20%.

  26. My super conservative prediction is Kate to take 8%, Labor to take 18%, Greens to take 27% and Liberals 47% primary.

    Kate’s preferences to 50% exhaust and go even spread around taking it to Labor 19.3%, Greens 27.3% LNP 48.3%

    Labor to then be eliminated with 50% exhaustion rate and 80% going to Greens the rest LNP taking it to: Greens 36% and LNP 64%

    In the if it goes all wild card on us then change the primary for to Kate 12%, Labor 17%, Greens 33% and the remaining primary 38% LNP with the same likely preference directions flowing from there.

  27. This could a situation where Labor and Greens strongly need to consider preferencing Richards over each other. She’s the only one with even a snowball’s chance of beating the LNP on 2CP, but she needs to get there first!

    She’ll need to peel about 20 points off the LNP to manage it.

    The LNP scoreline went down 14 points when Margaret de Wit retired, which is a reasonable proxy for personal vote. But de Wit had built that up over many years.
    Then again, Nicole Johnston took 20 points off the LNP back in 2012. (She also took 20 points off Labor and the Greens.) So that’s the model.

  28. Zephyr
    Sound reasoning. Diasagree over flow of Kate Richards preference flow.
    Most of Kate’s preferences will return. To LNP unless she does a very good campaign. Manning booths takes a lot of planning and without a substantial group of workers it is difficult to even work out how to start. If she has workers and a registered HOw UFO vote she may be able to control 50% of Her preferences but other 50 % will return toLNP where they originally came from.

  29. “Most of Kate’s preferences will return.”

    Counterpoint, the “just vote one” campaign the LNP have been doing in local and state elections in Brisbane for the last 20 years, including right now in all 25 other BCC wards…

  30. Nene
    I am happy to re-Phrase my answer to “most of Kate’s preferences that do not exhaust”
    For an independent like Kate she only has some say in flow of preferences IF she can get How To Vote cards into hands of voters.
    We do not know he reason Libs dis-endorsed her.
    The problem with lack of transparency is that allegations could range from insignificant oversight to jail for life offences. With a presumption of innocence and a slow moving legal process this lack of transparancy is un just.
    Moreton Bay Regional Council has a possible Mayoral candidate in same situation.
    The whole process of investigation and prosecution of elected officials needs to be Looked at. Suggestion No prosecutions in twelve months before an election which can not be resolved before close of nominations. However key to fixing this equitably is speedy resolution to accusations.
    Kate Richards is clearly disadvantaged by the current process.

  31. Kate seems to have been received favorably by The Local Bulletin so mayybe mayybe we could imagine the landscape shifting a bit for her to soak 15-16% of the vote instead.

    In that scenario with Greens the likely highest primary vote to be then boosted by Labor second preferences we could have

    Kate 16, Lab 20, Green 27, LNP 37 taken to Kate out mostly exhausted and half of Labors out taking Greens to 37 while we don’t know where the Kate voters go. I imagine Kates will go to Lib and Green evenly also partly because some protest voters will put the LNP last and just see an independent as their first option.

    That kind of vote would be a range for the upset to occur surely?

  32. Zephyr is correct about Local Bulletin. Front Page Photograph With double page spread about her but one should remember that throw away papers/magazines
    Editorial decisions are directly correlated with advertising revenue. Therefore some advertiser wants Kate re elected. This may be her own campaign with booked advertisements or it may be a regulate advertiser. Of course Real Estate biggest advertiser. Magazine is a full of hidden persuaders “ My house is so small and inadequate I need a new one “ athe advertising that has resulted in Kate’s endorsement may be her own campaign but not much evidence of campaigning. At Bellbowrie no pamphlets delivered and no robo calls so far. The Late arrival of two major party candidates has probably delayed their purchase of advertising leading to Kate’s triple page spress.

    I did not see the Local Bulletn but speaking to my local contact yesterday did discuss it.

  33. More trouble for Kate Richards/ LNP today. According to Courier Mail this morning Richards has issued HTV featuring her and LNP Adrian Scrinner saying nice things about Richards .HTV issued in a colour scheme that resembles LNP style guide.
    LNP are understandably annoyed both seem to be hurling abuse at each other.

  34. @Andrew Jackson

    It was reported in the media the LNP took Kate Richards to the courts over her how to vote cards because they suggested they were deliberately misleading the voters and inferring she was the LNP candidate. The judge ruled in favor of Richard’s because it stated on the cards in capitals ‘IND’ which means independent which the judge thought was sufficient.

    The Lawyer representing Richards also informed the Courier Mail today that the CCC will not be proceeding with criminal offences against Richards because of ‘insufficient evidence’.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/brisbane-council-elections-candidate-kate-richards-exonerated-after-ccc-referral/news-story/cd0c808f8f2fdb1df425eb4a0f42c4f0

  35. PN
    I am not a supporter of Liberal Party and if the electorate are too stupid to not know that Richards is not a LNP they get what they deserve.
    My original comment two months ago was that this was going to be an interesting seat and that has certainly turned out to be true. If LNP are not preferencing Richards they do not deserve to be Lecter and vice-versa.

  36. The policy of not distributing HTV and having them placed in roughly ballot paper order will benefit Kate Richards. I am assuming she will have less volunteers than official LNP candidate. Therefore just having HTV available is to her benefit.
    The flow from
    Her HTV (if distributed) will now be more important than I thought it would be at start off this campaign.

  37. Andrew, I will give the inside there on who gains. Greg was probably the worst at the spiel when all the candidate’s were there, and Kate was winning a lot of LNP voters by being able to talk to them, so Kate probably loses out a lot more than it seems at first. Everyone loses out by Kate not eating Liberal votes ultimately other than the LNP, especially now her court case is over and the verdict out.

    Greens voters tend not to postal vote or prepoll as much, they have far better voting results on the day, so likely they will cope a lot of lost votes, and then some of the protest votes to Kate as well. Not having a female candidate with Kate there may shift a few more her way and a few would probably go to Jordan Mark for Alp given he is a recent school leaver from Kenmore High. Basically it means he may have his year and one up generally voting for him while they would more often be a core Green demographic. It could bode poorly for the Greens in that sense.

    That all being said, it will still likely come to LNP vs Greens, though a few thousand voters out is unusual.

    My current prediction is the mood is shifting against the LNP, in spite of corona probably making people baited to go more conservatively, and potentially that may help Kate a bit as the keep things as they are option to some.

  38. Zephyr
    Good analysis.
    I always have a tendency to treat voters as being more intelligent than they are.
    I can not see why anyone voting for Kate would not preference Libs. No Lib in right mind would pref Green’s or ALP ahead of Kate for simple reason that if Kate wins and holds balance of power she will be likely Lib supporter.

    I tend to treat ALP and Greens as a red block vote that switches back and forth between each other. In Pullenvale the snob attitude makes Labor appear inferior and for some reason they think greens are seen as less working class.
    My prediction is that HTV flows will determine outcome. I have not seen HTV for Pullenvale but suspect that ALP and LNP will be just vote 1 . Which means if Greens come second or third most ALP votes will exhaust and not count.
    I would urge all voters to ignore HTV and preference to exhaustion.

  39. I agree Greens voters do not prepoll or postal vote but Pullenvale are not traditional Greens voters. They are wealthy family Doctors wife type greens rather than younger single yuppies . Therefore a good percentage of them probably know what and where the Post Office office is.

    My suspicion is that ALP voters preferences will be key. ALP voters who just vote 1 will play no part in determining the result. Their votes will exhaust without being counted.

  40. We definitely preferenced GRN second, but it is a shame to see a lot of ALP voters not preferencing GRN. I believe it’s mostly just the coronavirus effect, with ALP volunteers not being able to give out HTVs.

    Other than that, perhaps the majority labor voters here are the type that are distrustful of the greens anyway. Regardless, another case for full preferential.

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