Pullenvale – Brisbane 2020

Council margin – LNP 18.0% vs GRN
Mayoral margin – LNP 21.0%

Incumbent councillor
Kate Richards, since 2016.

Geography
North-western Brisbane. Pullenvale covers a large part of the Brisbane City Council area with little to no population, but most of its population lies in suburbs on north side of the Brisbane River to the west of the city centre, including Kenmore, Bellbowrie and Moggill.

Redistribution
There were some changes to Pullenvale’s northern boundary with the Gap, but the main population shift was on the eastern edge of the ward, where Pullenvale gained part of Chapel Hill from Walter Taylor. This change made very little impact on the margin.

History
Pullenvale has been a safe Liberal ward for a long time.

Margaret de Wit held this ward from 1997 to 2016. De Wit won with a 17.4% margin in 2000, 29% in 2004, 30.6% in 2008 and 31.2% in 2012 (the last time against the Greens).

de Wit rose to the position of chairman of the council, which she held until she announced her council retirement in 2015.

The LNP’s Kate Richards won Pullenvale in 2016, with an 18% margin. She suffered a 13% swing after preferences, but ultimately held on with one of the safest margins in the city.

Candidates
Sitting LNP councillor Kate Richards has been disendorsed. It is not clear whether she might run as an independent.

Assessment
Pullenvale is normally a very safe LNP ward. If Richards were to run as an independent that might change things.

2016 council result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kate Richards Liberal National 15,36660.5-14.460.5
John Belchamber Greens 5,41921.3+9.421.6
Catherine Abel Labor 4,62818.2+5.018.0
Informal5752.2

2016 council two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kate Richards Liberal National 15,79468.1-13.068.0
John Belchamber Greens 7,39131.9+13.032.0
Exhausted2,2288.8

2016 mayoral result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 16,20763.5-10.663.4
Rod Harding Labor 4,98519.5+7.119.5
Ben Pennings Greens 3,43813.5+1.313.6
Jeffrey HodgesIndependent4751.9+1.91.8
Karel BoelePeople Decide1990.8+0.80.8
Jim EldridgeIndependent1390.5+0.50.5
Jarrod WirthIndependent1010.4+0.40.4
Informal5112.0

2016 mayoral two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 16,75171.2-11.271.0
Rod Harding Labor 6,78528.8+11.229.0
Exhausted2,0087.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Pullenvale have been divided into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.

The LNP’s two-candidate-preferred margin varied from 65% in the south-west to 73% in the north-west. They did even better on the mayoral ballot, but with a similar pattern.

The ALP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13% in the north-west to 20% in the south-west.

Voter groupALP prim councilLNP 2CP councilLNP 2PP mayoralTotal votes% of votes
South-West20.164.768.89,01433.5
East17.068.270.17,63028.4
North-West13.073.175.72,2348.3
Other votes17.971.074.14,59217.1
Pre-poll17.968.971.83,44112.8

Election results in Pullenvale at the 2016 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs Greens) for council, two-party-preferred votes for lord mayor, and council primary votes for Labor.

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19 COMMENTS

  1. Well that’s a spanner in the works. One presumes that whoever the endorsed LNP candidate ends up being would still start as the favourite, but if Kate Richards continues professing innocence and were to run as an independent (and preferences LNP last out of spite?) things could happen…

    Will the CCC be able to decide an outcome before election day?

  2. CCC and judicial system seem to have an attitude of the longer a matter takes the more we will trust the final result.
    Courier Mail revealed yesterday that a Councillor or Mayor who is suspended because of an unfinished corruption charge can stand for office again and if elected would immediately be suspended till court decision.
    Once charged the
    Trial should be finalised in a week unless the accused seeks an extension.
    Court cases take far too long too finalise.
    It is very clear that Local Government needs to be more rigidly regulated by Local Government Department.
    Once a person has worked in Real Estate they should forfeit right to be employed or elected to any Local Council and once elected to Council absolutely no development should be approved if Councillor or ex councillor has any interest in development
    We need complete isolation of Real Estate, Development and Local Government.

  3. Bennee, Libs might be in trouble if it was Compulsory preferential, but even the ALP->Green flows are too leaky for anything to change here.

    Moggill in the state election is more winnable for Greens or Labor

  4. Moggil would be totally unwinnable for Greens if their taxation policies are hi-lighted. The electorate is relatively wealthy. Their Petrol prices are about 30c+ per Litre above rest of Brisbane and they do not seem to notice.

    They are Greenish socially but will turn neo-liberal libertarian if there is a risk of not being able to pay their mortgage. There has been an refugee activist on Moggil Rd protesting over last month but I doubt if electorate has a single refugee migrant. Plenty of Indians and Chinese but no factory workers let alone factorys.

  5. John
    ALP> Greens and Greens> ALP preference flows are tight with little leakage. Greens Preferences are a bit undisciplined but they go tightly Black to grey rather than Black to white.
    Where the lack of discipline becomes evident is where there is a sitting candidate who is seen by rest of community as being less than a pillar of community standards.
    In negotiating with Greens major parties would be silly not to argue that Greens have very little to negotiate with. DirectingGreen Preferences would be like herding cats.

  6. I was talking about exhausting votes – looks like nearly half the ALP votes exhausted last time.

    Given the animosity between QLD Greens amd Labor, and Labor’s closeness with the fossil fuel industry, plus their surprise decision to back down on Compulsory Preferential, I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor do “just vote 1” cards in Greens target seats, then run an “only Labor can beat the LNP here” campaign.

  7. John
    Valid point but I I do not think Green Voters will not preference at least as far all is ALP is concerned.

    Greens have been bottom of my ballot except in the one case where an ex uniformed NAZI stood.

    I am sure that Jhomsthon Sti

  8. John realistically only ALP can beat Liberals. Only other scenario that has the slightest possibility is an ALP -Grens coalition. Big problem with Queensland Local Government elections is that we could end up with an ALP Mayor with Libs holding a majority of Wards or vice versa.
    ALP are currently not campaigning effectively.

  9. Moggil Road now has a Liberal Flashing Neon sign outside Federal MP’s office . Sign alternates between Council candidate for Pullenvale Kate Richards and State candidate for Moggil. Libs must be more worried than I previously said was case.I think both of them however are very safe seats.
    Overall Deb Frecklington is running a very negative
    campaign for State election which is not cutting to to Mr and Mrs Jones voters who switch from ALP to Libs and vice versa. She is rousing the party faithful but not the undecided.

  10. I am not sure if Kate Richards is endorsed or not but she is on a LNP flashing sign.
    When disendorsing a candidate no party has a planned process to deal with all the matters that has to be done.

  11. ”LNP refers Brisbane councillor to corruption watchdog but Kate Richards says party faction vilifying her” Potentially disendorsed due to an incident last month, If so she should win anyway with a significantly reduced margin, I don’t see Labor winning this but the Greens could have outside chance, Possibly decided under 10% Lib vs Green, If the Liberals decide to put up a new candidate (Depending when the filing deadline is) They could put up former member for Ryan, Jane Prentice since this ward covers most of Ryan.

  12. Daniel: this ward is actually entirely contained within Ryan.
    Jane was previously a councillor actually, in Walter Taylor ward. I doubt she would now stand for Pullenvale.

    This is deep blue LNP territory, whoever the LNP end up putting up here should get in fairly easily.

  13. Interestingly Kate Richards has been disendorsed but the reasons for her referral to CCC are not public.
    Have Libs removed her from flashing sign on Moggil Road?
    Clearly political parties need to insert some managerialism into their internal structure to eliminate paying to advertise a candidate they have disendorsed. I doubt if this problem is confined to Liberal Party. I once handed out a How to Vote authorised by someone who had defected and was standing for another party. Electoral Commission advised that endorsement if legitimate could not be revoked merely for changing parties.

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