Wentworth – Australia 2019

IND 1.2% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Kerryn Phelps, since 2018.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Wentworth covers Woollahra and Waverley local government areas, as well as eastern parts of the City of Sydney and northern parts of Randwick LGA. Wentworth covers the southern shore of Sydney Harbour as far west as Elizabeth Bay, and covers the east coast from South Head to Clovelly. Main suburbs include Bondi, Woollahra, Vaucluse, Double Bay, Kings Cross and parts of Randwick, Darlinghurst and Clovelly. Wentworth also covers Moore Park and Centennial Park.

History
Wentworth is an original federation electorate and has always existed roughly in the eastern suburbs of Sydney. It has always been held by conservative parties, including the Liberal Party since its foundation in 1944.

The seat was first won by William McMillan of the Free Trade party in 1901. He was elected deputy leader of his party but retired at the 1903 election. He was succeeded by William Kelly, also a Free Trader. Kelly joined the Commonwealth Liberal Party and served in Joseph Cook’s ministry from 1913 to 1914.

Kelly retired in 1919 as a Nationalist and was succeeded by Walter Marks. Marks joined with other Nationalists, including Billy Hughes, to bring down the Bruce government in 1929, and was reelected as an independent. Marks joined the new United Australia Party in 1931, but was defeated in that year’s election by Eric Harrison, another UAP candidate.

Harrison held the seat for twenty-five years for the UAP and the Liberal Party. He usually held the seat safely, although he only held on by 335 votes in 1943, when feminist campaigner Jessie Street (ALP) challenged Harrison. William Wentworth also polled 20%. He later joined the Liberal Party and was elected in Mackellar in 1949.

Harrison had served a number of brief stints as a minister under Joseph Lyons and Robert Menzies in the 1930s and early 1940s, and served as the first deputy leader of the Liberal Party from its foundation until his retirement in 1956. Harrison was a minister in the Menzies government from 1949 until 1956, when he retired.

Les Bury (LIB) won the seat at the 1956 by-election. He served as a minister from 1961 until 1971, serving as Treasurer under John Gorton and briefly as Treasurer and then Foreign Minister under William McMahon. Bury retired in 1974.

Robert Ellicott (LIB) was elected in 1974. He served as Attorney-General in the first Fraser Ministry and as Minister for Home Affairs from 1977 to 1981, when he resigned to serve on the Federal Court. The ensuing by-election was won by Peter Coleman. Coleman had previously served as Leader of the Opposition in the NSW Parliament, and lost his seat at the 1978 state election.

Coleman retired in 1987 and was succeeded by John Hewson. Hewson was elected leader of the Liberal Party following their 1990 election defeat. Hewson led the party into the 1993 election, where the party went backwards. He was replaced in May 1994 as leader by Alexander Downer, and he retired from Parliament in 1995.

Andrew Thomson won the following by-election. Thomson served briefly as a Parliamentary Secretary and junior minister in the first term of the Howard government. Thomson was defeated for preselection by Peter King in 2001.

King himself was defeated for preselection in a heated preselection campaign in 2004 by Malcolm Turnbull. The preselection saw a massive explosion in membership numbers for the Liberal Party in Wentworth. King ran as an independent and polled 18%, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 5.5%.

The redistribution after the 2004 election saw Wentworth extended deeper into the City of Sydney, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 2.5%. Turnbull managed to win the seat in 2007 with a 1.3% swing towards him, in the face of a national swing against the Liberals.

Turnbull had served as a minister in the final term of the Howard government, and ran for the Liberal leadership following the 2007 election, losing to Brendan Nelson. After serving as Nelson’s Shadow Treasurer he was elected Leader of the Opposition in September 2008. After a rocky term as Leader of the Opposition, Turnbull was defeated by Tony Abbott by one vote in another leadership vote in December 2009. Turnbull served as a shadow minister and then as Minister for Communications under Tony Abbott’s leadership.

In September 2015, Turnbull successfully challenged Abbott for the Liberal leadership, and became Prime Minister. He led the Liberal-National coalition to a second term in government in 2016.

Malcolm Turnbull led the Liberal Party in government until August 2018, when he resigned following a motion to spill the Liberal leadership. He was succeeded as Prime Minister by Scott Morrison. Turnbull resigned from Wentworth shortly after losing the leadership.

The 2018 Wentworth by-election was won by independent candidate Kerryn Phelps.

Candidates

Assessment
Kerryn Phelps’ victory in the 2018 by-election was very slim, and you could imagine this seat going either way in 2019.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Malcolm Turnbull Liberal 52,35362.3-2.4
Evan Hughes Labor 14,91317.7-1.0
Dejay Toborek Greens 12,49614.9+0.8
Anthony Michael AckroydArts Party1,4781.8+1.8
Peter XingScience Party9881.2+1.2
Beresford ThomasChristian Democratic Party9011.1+0.6
David AllenIndependent5730.7+0.7
Marc Aussie-StoneIndependent3900.5+0.5
Informal4,5495.1

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Malcolm Turnbull Liberal 56,97167.7-1.2
Evan Hughes Labor 27,12132.3+1.2

2018 by-election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Dave Sharma Liberal 32,79543.1-19.2
Kerryn PhelpsIndependent22,21929.2+29.2
Tim Murray Labor 8,77711.5-6.2
Dominic Wy Kanak Greens 6,5438.6-6.3
Licia HeathIndependent1,7212.3+2.3
Angela VithoulkasIndependent8221.1+1.1
Andrea LeongScience5160.7-0.5
Shayne HigsonVoluntary Euthanasia4930.7+0.7
Deb DoyleAnimal Justice4210.6+0.6
Kay DunneSustainable Australia4130.5+0.5
Robert CallananKatter’s Australian3810.5+0.5
Samuel GunningLiberal Democrats3510.5+0.5
Barry KeldoulisArts3050.4-1.4
Tony RobinsonLiberty Alliance1540.2+0.2
Ben ForsythJustice1330.2+0.2
Steven GeorgantisPeople’s Party820.1+0.1
Informal4,9286.1

2018 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Kerryn PhelpsIndependent38,98851.2
Dave Sharma Liberal 37,13848.8

2018 by-election two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Dave Sharma Liberal 46,24460.8-7.0
Tim Murray Labor 29,88239.3+7.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: Beach, Harbour and City.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.4% in Beach to 79.1% in Harbour.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.7% in Harbour to 19.0% in Beach.

2016 booth breakdown

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Beach19.058.421,24425.3
Harbour9.779.118,31021.8
City17.761.311,56313.8
Other votes13.771.114,89117.7
Pre-poll14.468.718,08421.5

2018 by-election booth breakdown

Voter groupIND 2CP %Total votes% of votes
Beach59.623,12930.4
Harbour42.714,93319.6
City63.911,04114.5
Other votes5.39,30712.2
Prepoll63.717,71623.3

Election results in Wentworth at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Two-candidate-preferred votes at the 2018 Wentworth by-election

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10 COMMENTS

  1. Liberal’s Made a major mistake nominating Sharma again, He cannot win idk what drugs the people are on on sportsbet to think he has a high chance of winning. He cannot win. He’s conservative leaning on issues that doesn’t match this electorate, And you have an Independent that has a high profile and will easily build up her profile further, I see her staying on until she retires or messes up. Since the Liberals are bracing for a landslide defeat i don’t see how this gets regained, I understand if this was 2013, But it isn’t its going to be a reverse of 2013 and Labor vote will be up, They will preference Her over Sharma, Sharma does not match the views of the people of this, He is no Malcolm Turnbull, IND Hold

  2. As with Mayo, some people seem oddly eager to place the blame for Wentworth on the Liberal candidate. In both cases, the loss is much more plausibly explained by the low standing of the government and the quality of the opponent.

    Or to put it another way: if not Sharma, then who?

  3. Christine forester, Tony Abbots sister, A very sensible Small L liberal basically a woman version of Malcolm turnbull, She would have been a much better choice and would have a good chance of winning, You would have to be an idiot to think sharma will win, Sorry but thats the truth, i believe sharma lived in Mackellar hes truly out of touch with wentworth

  4. Daniel – Christine may have done better than David in the by election. In a general election that to but would she want to be a spoiler for Kerryn given they are both lesbian pals. However Christine would be another Liberal women candidate in what eventually would be a safe seat in the future. Abbott name spelling?

    David – In Mayo Georgina was seen as a blow in from Victoria where she has lived for a few years and after she failed to get selected for Goldstein a few months earlier.

  5. Christine Forster’s problem is that her name is usually accompanied by the description “Tony Abbott’s sister”. (As you’ve proven.) The Abbott name would only be a dead weight on the Liberal brand in Wentworth. At least that was the thinking conveyed by Liberal insiders from reports at the time of the by-election.

  6. David – this is a common problem with the media, women are often linked to men (brother in this case) or they are a mother or what clothes they like and all the other women’s magazine trash that is out there.

  7. david’s problem is he is a conservative retard. He does not appeal to any of the voters here, this one of the most if not the most liberal electorate in the county, only turnbull like candidates can win here

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