Bonner – Australia 2019

LNP 3.4%

Incumbent MP
Ross Vasta, since 2010, previously 2004-2007.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.

At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.

A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007. In 2010, Rea was challenged by Vasta, who won the seat back for the Liberal National Party. Vasta was re-elected again in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Bonner is the sixteenth-most marginal Coalition seat in the country. Labor could have a shot at winning, but don’t necessarily need to win Bonner to take government.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ross Vasta Liberal National 41,75646.4-0.4
Laura Fraser Hardy Labor 31,34434.9-1.2
Ken Austin Greens 8,5189.5+2.6
Andrew BroughtonFamily First3,1573.5+1.4
Matthew LinneyLiberal Democrats2,7383.0+3.1
Jarrod John WirthIndependent2,3962.7+2.7
Informal2,8383.1

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ross Vasta Liberal National 48,00253.4-0.3
Laura Fraser Hardy Labor 41,90746.6+0.3

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: Mount Gravatt in the south, Wynnum-Manly in the north, and a group covering booths in the central part of the seat.

The Liberal National Party polled a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, achieving 53% in the south and 55.5% in the centre. Labor poll 54.4% in the north.

Voter groupLNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South53.019,10521.2
Central55.515,91817.7
North45.614,76116.4
Other votes56.219,52521.7
Pre-poll55.020,60022.9

Two-party-preferred votes in Bonner at the 2016 federal election

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10 COMMENTS

  1. Anton, that’s correct.

    She also ran for the State Seat of Cleveland at the 2012 election.

    She will be a formidable candidate, but the namesake of her father won’t benefit her in Bonner, because of the boundaries.

    With that being said, a very good choice of candidate for Labor and may just be the right pick for them this time.

  2. He isn’t very popular i hear, He only survived last time because labour didn’t do too well in QLD. Labour gain if the right candidate runs

  3. Daniel
    What do you hear ?. From the numbers, Vasta seems to have dug in. It looks like he has a strong personal vote. The only traction against him seems to be encapsulated in the increased Green vote

  4. Ross Vasta is the laziest member. In all the years he has been the member for Bonner I have not seen him once and the only time that there is any written matter from him is when there is an election looming and he sends out postal voting and how to vote cards. Why he is still the member is puzzling. Even if you email his office there is no information forthcoming.

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