Bonner – Australia 2019

LNP 3.4%

Incumbent MP
Ross Vasta, since 2010, previously 2004-2007.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.

At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.

A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007. In 2010, Rea was challenged by Vasta, who won the seat back for the Liberal National Party. Vasta was re-elected again in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Bonner is the sixteenth-most marginal Coalition seat in the country. Labor could have a shot at winning, but don’t necessarily need to win Bonner to take government.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ross Vasta Liberal National 41,75646.4-0.4
Laura Fraser Hardy Labor 31,34434.9-1.2
Ken Austin Greens 8,5189.5+2.6
Andrew BroughtonFamily First3,1573.5+1.4
Matthew LinneyLiberal Democrats2,7383.0+3.1
Jarrod John WirthIndependent2,3962.7+2.7
Informal2,8383.1

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ross Vasta Liberal National 48,00253.4-0.3
Laura Fraser Hardy Labor 41,90746.6+0.3

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: Mount Gravatt in the south, Wynnum-Manly in the north, and a group covering booths in the central part of the seat.

The Liberal National Party polled a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, achieving 53% in the south and 55.5% in the centre. Labor poll 54.4% in the north.

Voter groupLNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South53.019,10521.2
Central55.515,91817.7
North45.614,76116.4
Other votes56.219,52521.7
Pre-poll55.020,60022.9

Two-party-preferred votes in Bonner at the 2016 federal election

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14 COMMENTS

  1. Anton, that’s correct.

    She also ran for the State Seat of Cleveland at the 2012 election.

    She will be a formidable candidate, but the namesake of her father won’t benefit her in Bonner, because of the boundaries.

    With that being said, a very good choice of candidate for Labor and may just be the right pick for them this time.

  2. He isn’t very popular i hear, He only survived last time because labour didn’t do too well in QLD. Labour gain if the right candidate runs

  3. Daniel
    What do you hear ?. From the numbers, Vasta seems to have dug in. It looks like he has a strong personal vote. The only traction against him seems to be encapsulated in the increased Green vote

  4. Ross Vasta is the laziest member. In all the years he has been the member for Bonner I have not seen him once and the only time that there is any written matter from him is when there is an election looming and he sends out postal voting and how to vote cards. Why he is still the member is puzzling. Even if you email his office there is no information forthcoming.

  5. Another blow for the LNP on Sportsbet here, It wasn’t like this a few weeks ago, The LNP have slipped too $1.90 while the ALP are ahead on $1.80

  6. Trish
    Your comment 14 October. I think you will find it is Liberal National Party that send out postal vote applications. Parliamentary Staffers are not supposed to be involved in election campaigning but this rule is very difficult to enforce. It is very difficult to distinguish between parliamentary and political business even in non election period. During elections it is impossible to determine. Eg An MP who attends Neighbourhood Watch meeting every month is clearly on Parliamentary business (as does my state MLA ALP member Chris Whiting) but what about one who turns up for first time a few months before election and is never seen again till following election. If you want to see an example of a really hard working MLA at work look at Shane Knuth’s Facebook site.
    Andrew Jackson

  7. I tried to contact Vasta after the spill last year to find out who he voted for. I did not get a reply. Go Jo Briskey. We have a Labor state member, we should get a Labor federal member as well.

  8. I tend to think that the comments above are not necessarily representative of the Bonner electorate.

    Judging from the numbers, Vasta has over-performed in almost all federal elections here for the last 15 years. He managed to mitigate the swing against him to well below the state average in 2007 and 2016. He also got a significantly higher than average swing in 2010 (I think it was one of the largest in QLD).

    Going out on a limb and saying a Liberal hold at the moment, though it will be close.

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