Blair – Australia 2019

ALP 8.1%

Incumbent MP
Shayne Neumann, since 2007.

Geography
Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as Somerset Regional Council. The seat covers the urban area of Ipswich and rural areas to the west, and towns such as Esk and Kilcoy.

Redistribution
Blair jumped the Brisbane river to take in Karana Downs from Ryan. This reduced the Labor margin in Blair from 8.9% to 8.1%.

History
Blair was created at the 1998 election, one of a number of seats created in Queensland over the last few decades. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 2007, when the ALP won.

Blair took over territory in Ipswich in 1998 from the seat of Oxley. Oxley had a long history of being held by the Labor Party but was lost to disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson in 1996. Hanson formed One Nation in her term in the House of Representatives, and contested Blair in 1998. Hanson came first on primary votes, but lost on preferences. Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on Nationals preferences and then overtook Hanson on Labor preferences.

Thompson held Blair at the 2001 and 2004 elections, but lost in 2007 to Labor candidate Shayne Neumann. Neumann was assisted by a redistribution which saw Blair take in more of pro-Labor Ipswich, losing rural conservatives areas to the northwest, although it gained areas to the southwest which have since been shedded.

Neumann has been re-elected three times.

Candidates

  • Michelle Duncan (Greens)
  • Shayne Neumann (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Blair is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

    2016 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Shayne Neumann Labor 35,69141.9+0.441.0
    Teresa Harding Liberal National 24,45528.7-5.129.6
    Troy AggettOne Nation13,27315.6+15.614.9
    Pat Walsh Greens 5,2666.2+1.96.7
    Geoff DarrFamily First2,4062.80.02.9
    Sandy TurnerIndependent1,9132.2+2.32.1
    Patricia PetersenIndependent1,4391.7+1.71.6
    Jonathan EmmsIndependent7440.9+0.90.8
    Others0.3
    Informal5,1205.7

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Shayne Neumann Labor 50,15858.9+3.658.1
    Teresa Harding Liberal National 35,02941.1-3.641.9

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. Those booths in the City of Ipswich have been divided into four parts. Those in the rural west of the council area have been grouped together. Most of Blair’s population lives in the urban area around the centre of Ipswich, and these have been divided into Central, North and East.

    Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four out of five areas, ranging from 51.1% in rural Ipswich to 68.8% in East Ipswich. The Liberal Party polled 51.1% in Somerset.

    One Nation’s primary vote ranged from 11.4% in North Ipswich to 21.3% in rural Ipswich.

    Voter groupON prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Central Ipswich14.364.120,76223.3
    North Ipswich11.456.412,42313.9
    East Ipswich14.368.810,00211.2
    Somerset19.048.99,76811.0
    Rural Ipswich21.351.15,1505.8
    Other votes15.855.815,58117.5
    Pre-poll13.355.115,42417.3

    Election results in Blair at the 2016 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

    Become a Patron!

    1 COMMENT

    1. Labor should win this seat easily on an increased margin. The seat is an interesting one in terms of preference flows there were reports last election that One Nation voters in droves ignored their how to vote cards to preference the Liberals and preferenced Labor instead.

      Neumann is a frontbencher and one of the most senior federal Labor politicians in Queensland. There were reports in 2013 that if Neumann and Yvette D’ath lost their seats of Blair and Petrie in the 2013 federal election that Labor would look to move them into state politics. D’ath lost her seat of Petrie and entered state politics via a by-election in the seat of Redcliffe. Neumann held on to his seat.

    LEAVE A REPLY

    Please enter your comment!
    Please enter your name here