ALP 0.9%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Rowland, since 2010.
Geography
Western Suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers the eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and some parts of Parramatta and Holroyd council areas. Suburbs include Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Toongabbie, Girraween, Pendle Hill, The Ponds and Riverstone.
History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.
Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.
The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries.
The 2009 redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, winning that seat off the ALP.
Labor councillor Michelle Rowland won the redrawn Greenway in 2010.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Michelle Rowland is running for a second term. The Liberal preselection was drawn out and included a large number of potential candidates, including 2010 candidate Jaymes Diaz and singer Angry Anderson. Ultimately the preselection was won by 2010 candidate Jaymes Diaz. The Greens are running Chris Brentin. Katter’s Australian Party are running Jamie Cavanagh.
Assessment
Greenway will be one of the Liberal Party’s top targets and will be a vital gain if the Coalition is to win a majority. The Liberal Party’s choice of candidate will have a major impact on the race.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Rowland | ALP | 33,567 | 42.32 | -7.36 |
| Jaymes Diaz | LIB | 32,788 | 41.34 | +2.05 |
| Paul Taylor | GRN | 4,769 | 6.01 | +1.57 |
| Allan Green | CDP | 2,922 | 3.68 | +0.86 |
| Iris Muller | FF | 1,296 | 1.63 | +0.38 |
| John Baiada | BA | 815 | 1.03 | +1.03 |
| Tony Pettitt | AF | 780 | 0.98 | +0.98 |
| Michael Santos | IND | 770 | 0.97 | +0.97 |
| Joaquim de Lima | LDP | 542 | 0.68 | +0.51 |
| Amarjit Tanda | IND | 530 | 0.67 | +0.67 |
| Ronaldo Villaver | DEM | 529 | 0.67 | +0.67 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Rowland | ALP | 40,355 | 50.88 | -4.79 |
| Jaymes Diaz | LIB | 38,953 | 49.12 | +4.79 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. “North” covers those parts north of the M7. Areas in Blacktown City Council south of railway line (as well as those parts in Parramatta and Holroyd councils) have been grouped as “South” with the remainder in “Central”.
The Liberal Party won a majority in the north, while the ALP won a slim majority in the centre and a larger majority in the south.
Polling booths in Greenway. South in blue, Central in green, North in yellow.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 4.90 | 46.29 | 27,511 | 34.69 |
| South | 6.36 | 56.28 | 21,704 | 27.37 |
| Central | 6.61 | 51.69 | 15,710 | 19.81 |
| Other votes | 6.96 | 50.64 | 14,383 | 18.14 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Greenway at the 2010 federal election.
I suspect that even if Liberal preselection goes to Diaz, a man whom Abbott doesn’t want, the seat will be a cakewalk for the Liberals – barring a dramatic shift in the polls, of course.
My mail is that Diaz has withdrawn from preselection. It appears that Abbott got his way in regards to Diaz. Frankly, if Diaz was the preselected candidate, you would see one of the worst mediocrities ever elected to the Australian Parliament. And it would give Labor a chance at winning this seat; a very small one, to be fair. On merit, Michelle Rowland’s the best candidate to represent Greenway, regardless of party allegiance.
Internal Polls for a few months in this region suggest Labor’s primary vote is around high 20s. Too far to come back from I believe.
I was wrong about Diaz not contesting. He beat Brett Murray, who I believed to be the better candidate quite convincingly in the preselection.
Already, there has been some good legwork from the Liberal Party with a mass run of leaflets sent to the electorate a couple of weeks ago. I received my copy at Lalor Park, and got another copy where I live in the north-western end of the electorate. A very professional first brochure from the Liberals with an endorsement from Tony Abbott of Diaz as the candidate.
I have seen Michelle Rowland at Schofields Station on her own handing out leaflets. If DB’s polling is to be believed, Rowland is going to be smashed, through no great fault of her own. Labor have some major problems in Western and South-Western Sydney that no effective politicians such as Rowland, Chris Bowen, Jason Clare or Tony Burke can fix at the moment.
DLH – Clare will survive. Burke probably will. I don’t think Bowen or Ferguson can win unless something greatly changes and the loss of Bowen would be terrible for the Labor Party.
The polling I have seen here is from about 6 weeks ago before this last leadership fiasco and it was a composite poll of Lindsay and Greenway with 500 people phone polled. MoE would be around 5% or so. I suspect the numbers in Lindsay are worse than Greenway although I don’t have breakdowns which separate the two seats. The Coalition were on 56% primary and Labor were 27%. Even with a high MoE, Labor can’t win either of these seats unless something drastically changes. Interestingly, KAP polled 6% which was higher than the Greens. On voter intention preference distribution, the Coalition were 65/35 ahead on 2PP.
Diaz’s election office opened at Seven Hills this afternoon by Malcolm Turnbull according to the Blacktown Advocate. The Liberal Party showing better commitment to on-the-ground work than the 2010 election in this seat, from all appearances.
I agree with you, DB, that Clare will survive. The boundaries point towards a relatively safer hold for him, while Burke, I’m less sure of, at the moment. The fact that we are talking about Werriwa and McMahon as potential to probable losses for Labor point towards a huge problem for Labor in its former – think it’s safe to say this now – heartland. I also have Fowler as a loss for Labor as well, if the Liverpool City Council Elections were any indicator.