IND vs ALP 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Wilkie, since 2010.
Geography
Denison covers the suburbs of Hobart on the western shores of the Derwent River. The seat covers Hobart and Glenorchy LGAs as well as northern parts of Kingborough LGA. The seat includes the Hobart CBD and is by far the most compact seat in Tasmania.
History
Denison was first created for the 1903 election. The seat was first held by Sir Philip Fysh, a former Premier of Tasmania and minister under Edmund Barton and Alfred Deakin. His retirement in 1910 saw the seat fall to the ALP, with the ALP member William Laird Smith joining the new Nationalist party in 1916. He lost the seat to a Labor candidate in 1922, and for the next twelve years the seat changed hands every three years, with the Nationalists winning it back in 1925, the ALP winning it back in 1928 and retaining it in 1929 before the new United Australia Party won the seat in 1931.
In 1934, the ALP regained it yet again, and held it for two terms until the 1940 election. A new UAP member of Parliament won the seat in 1940, and again only held it for three years, before the ALP’s John Gaha won the seat at the 1943 election. For the next half-century, Denison was a bellwether seat, going to the party that won federal government at each election.
Gaha lost the seat in 1949 to the Liberal Party’s Athol Townley. Townley held the seat for the next fourteen years, which was the longest term of service in Denison up until Duncan Kerr’s time. Townley served as Minister for Defence under Robert Menzies, before dying in December 1963 shortly after being appointed as Ambassador to the United States.
He was succeeded by Adrian Gibson, who retired in 1969 to be replaced by Robert Solomon. Solomon was defeated after one term in 1972 by Labor’s John Coates, who himself was defeated by Michael Hodgman in 1975. Hodgman served in a variety of junior ministerial roles under Malcolm Fraser and held the seat until 1987. Indeed, his victories in 1983 and 1984 were the only times Denison had gone to an opposition candidate in decades.
Hodgman was defeated in 1987 by the ALP’s Duncan Kerr. Kerr held the seat from 1987 until 2010, by far the longest term in Denison in the seat’s 106-year history.
In 2010, Kerr was replaced as ALP candidate by Jonathan Jackson. He was challenged by independent candidate Andrew Wilkie. Wilkie was a former analyst at the Office of National Assessments who resigned in protest over the Iraq War. He ran against John Howard in Bennelong for the Greens in 2004 and then ran as Bob Brown’s running mate for the Senate in Tasmania in 2007. After the 2007 election, Wilkie had a falling-out with the Tasmanian Greens and became an independent. He came close to winning a seat in Denison at the 2010 Tasmanian election. At the federal election, Wilkie came third on primary votes but overtook the Liberal Party on Socialist and Green preferences, and narrowly defeated the ALP on the two-party-preferred vote.
Candidates
Sitting independent MP Andrew Wilkie is running for re-election. The ALP is running Jane Austin. The Greens are running Anna Reynolds.
Assessment
Denison is one of the most interesting seats in the country. In 2010, Andrew Wilkie was the only candidate to get elected from third place on primary votes. The Greens will be pushing hard to overtake Wilkie, which would kill off his chances and likely turn the seat into a Labor vs Greens race.
It is most likely, however, that Wilkie will benefit from a personal vote as a sitting MP, and will increase his vote. If he does, this seat will likely be a race between Wilkie and the ALP, and will depend on Greens and Liberal preferences. A 2012 ReachTel poll had Wilkie well out in front on 40% with the Labor and Greens votes both dropping and the Liberals coming second. While this should be taken with a grain of salt, it is plausible that Wilkie’s presence as a progressive independent will take a large chunk out of both Labor and Greens and give him a strong lead.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jonathan Jackson | ALP | 23,215 | 35.79 | -12.37 |
| Cameron Simpkins | LIB | 14,688 | 22.65 | -7.34 |
| Andrew Wilkie | IND | 13,788 | 21.26 | +21.26 |
| Geoffrey Couser | GRN | 12,312 | 18.98 | +0.40 |
| Mel Barnes | SA | 856 | 1.32 | +0.56 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Wilkie | IND | 33,217 | 51.21 | |
| Cameron Simpkins | ALP | 31,642 | 48.79 |
Polling booths in Denison at the 2010 federal election. Claremont in yellow, Glenorchy in green, Hobart in red, South in blue.
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population of Denison lie in Glenorchy and Hobart local government areas. Booths in Glenorchy have been split between Claremont (north) and Glenorchy (south). Booths in Hobart have been divided between Hobart and South. The handful of booths in Kingborough council have also been included in South.
The 2010 federal election results revealed a very sharp divide between booths north of the Glenorchy-Hobart council boundary and those south of it.
In the north, the ALP polled 49% of the primary vote and over 60% of the vote after preferences, and the Liberal Party came second. In the south, the four main candidates all polled between 23% and 26%. While Labor still led the pack, they polled only 0.9% more than Wilkie and much less once preferences are factored in. After preferences, Wilkie polled 60.4% in the south of the electorate.
| Voter group | ALP % | LIB % | IND % | GRN % | IND 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Hobart | 28.81 | 18.75 | 24.66 | 26.33 | 56.52 | 16,284 | 25.11 |
| Glenorchy | 47.81 | 19.83 | 17.70 | 13.16 | 40.13 | 14,189 | 21.88 |
| South | 21.98 | 29.47 | 25.41 | 22.09 | 65.48 | 12,215 | 18.83 |
| Claremont | 51.38 | 19.01 | 17.57 | 10.53 | 37.39 | 7,876 | 12.14 |
| Other votes | 35.03 | 26.05 | 19.40 | 18.40 | 51.61 | 14,295 | 22.04 |
| Total South | 25.88 | 23.35 | 24.98 | 24.51 | 60.36 | 28,499 | |
| Total North | 49.09 | 19.53 | 17.65 | 12.22 | 39.15 | 22,065 |
Click on the following maps to enlarge them to full size.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Denison at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Denison at the 2010 federal election.
Liberal primary votes in Denison at the 2010 federal election.
Primary votes for Andrew Wilkie in Denison at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Denison at the 2010 federal election.
I think that Wilkie will hold.
He was lucky to win from third on the primary vote count in 2010, and arguably should be no chance. But last year I saw a story in the OZ (part of the so-called “hate media”), saying that he was predicted to hold. The year before, Wilkie told the ABC program INSIDERS that most of the criticism directed at his backing of Gillard came from outside his electorate, and most of his constituents were telling him that they were happy with that. And I’ve heard anti-Gillard Tories giving him a rap for withdrawing his support for Gillard after she dumped his pokie reforms, albeit only after the departure of Slipper from the LNP enabled her to dump them in the face of ferocious opposition from the clubs industry.
If Wilkie holds, he’ll probably hold with preferences, which he’ll need. And because he’s on speaking terms with Abbott, the Liberals will probably give him their preferences.
I agree, Wilkie should finish second this time on primary votes, and receive a decent preference flow from both the Liberal Party and the Greens, enough for Andrew Wilkie to leave Labor for dead.
Andrew Wilkie can’t rely on Liberal preferences t oget him over the line as the Liberal candidate is likely to be one of the last two left standing… Which means that if Labor direct their preferences to Liberals, Wilkie may well be out.
Interesting thought – that would require Wilkie to outpoll the Greens (probable), and Liberals to outpoll Labor (in Denison???), along with preferences going Greens to Wilkie (probable) and Labor to Liberal (???).
Re Ben Peelman’s suggestion, for the Liberal and Wilkie to be the last two left standing, this means that the Labor candidate must have less than 33% after Green preferences (unless Labor is out first which would require a primary of <25%). That requires Labor to be down more than 10% on last time at that same point. It also requires the swing from Labor and the swing to Liberal to average nearly 10%.
I'd say that both these things are quite possible based on swings elsewhere in the state, if enough Labor voters switch to Wilkie as well as those swinging to the Libs. The seat could be either Wilkie vs Labor 2CP or Wilkie vs Liberal. Very hard to see Wilkie not making the final two unless he brings down the government in the meantime.
But I think Labor would have rocks in their heads to preference the Liberals ahead fo Wilkie anyway.
I think it’s quite possible the Liberals will come second.
Wilkie won last time from a very low primary vote – as a sitting member from the centre-left he is likely to gain votes from the Greens and Labor. It’s less likely he’ll gain votes from the Liberals.
Labor is also likely to lose votes to the Liberals as they will do in most seats. If they do I think the most likely outcome is Wilkie first, Liberal second, Labor third, Greens fourth.
I agree with Kevin’s comments about rocks in Labor heads re preferencing Liberals ahead of an independent who has supported them in government (if done so in a way that has probably produced a few grey hairs along the way).
I’m not convinced it is in Wilkie’s best interests to run in this seat again. A move to the Senate would probably give him much more power in the next Government as another hung HoR is extremely unlikely. If he runs in Denison he will win comfortably and the Libs will finish second. If he doesn’t run anyone can win this.
On expected voting numbers it is becoming likely that the Coalition will be able to control the Senate without relying on the Greens. That could make a switch by Wilkie to the Senate a critical move for him and all Tasmanians. The Libs will pick up 3 Senate seats in TAS if Wilkie doesn’t run but probably only 2 if he does.