ALP 0.6%

Incumbent MP
Mike Symon, since 2007.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Main suburbs are Blackburn, Nunawading, Mitcham, Ringwood, Heathmont, Croydon and Vermont. Seat covers a majority of Maroondah and Whitehorse local government areas.

Redistribution
The southwestern corner of the seat (including Burwood East and Forest Hill) was transferred to Chisholm. Those parts of Aston in Whitehorse LGA(including Vermont South) were transferred into Deakin. Areas around Croydon and Ringwood North were transferred from Casey and Menzies into Deakin. The redistribution reduced the Labor margin from 2.4% to 0.6%.

Map of Deakin’s 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.

History
Deakin was first created in 1937, and has only been won by the ALP twice in that time, being almost always held by the United Australia Party and Liberal Party.

The seat originally covered rural areas to the east and north-east of Melbourne, until the 1968 redistribution moved the seat into the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, in the same sort of area that the seat covers today.

The seat was first won by the UAP’s William Hutchinson in 1937. Hutchinson had previously held the neighbouring seat of Indi. Hutchinson joined the Liberal Party in 1944 and retired from Parliament at the 1949 election. Frank Davis then held it until 1966, when Alan Jarman won the seat. Jarman was defeated by John Saunderson (ALP) in 1983. Saunderson moved to the new seat of Aston in 1984, when Julian Beale won the seat for the Liberals.

Beale was succeded in 1990 by Ken Aldred. Aldred had previously been elected at the 1983 Bruce by-election and held Bruce until the 1990 redistribution. Aldred was disendorsed before the 1996 election after raising conspiracy theories in Parliament, based on documents supplied by the Citizens Electoral Council. Aldred was later selected by local branches to run in the marginal seat of Holt at the 2007 election before having his preselection vetoed by the state party.

The seat was won in 1996 by Phil Barresi, who held it until his defeat in 2007 by the ALP’s Mike Symon.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Mike Symon is presumably running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Michael Sukkar.

Assessment
Deakin is Labor’s second-most marginal seat in Australia. The ALP has generally performed better in Victoria than in other states in recent times and it is possible that this seat won’t follow the national trend.

2010 result

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Two of them lie in Whitehorse council (South and West) and the other two in Maroondah council (East and North-East).

The ALP won a majority in the west and east, while the Liberal Party won a majority in the northeast and south.

Polling booths in Deakin at the 2010 federal election. East in blue, North-East in yellow, West in green, South in red.

Two-party-preferred votes in Deakin at the 2010 federal election.

Greens primary votes in Deakin at the 2010 federal election.