LNP 1.1%
Incumbent MP
Teresa Gambaro, since 2010. Previously Member for Petrie 1996-2007.
Geography
Central Brisbane. Brisbane covers the Brisbane CBD and inner suburbs north of the Brisbane River including Fortitude Valley, Paddington, Ashgrove, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Clayfield and Hendra.
History
Brisbane is an original federation electorate. It has been held by the ALP for most of its history interrupted by short periods of conservative MPs, up until the last election.
The seat was first won by Thomas Macdonald-Paterson, who joined the Protectionists when Parliament first sat. Macdonald-Paterson was not endorsed by the local Protectionists for the 1903 election, and the split in the protectionist vote gave the seat to the ALP’s Millice Culpin.
Culpin was himself defeated after one term by Justin Foxton of the Anti-Socialist Party (formerly the Free Traders). Foxton served as a minister from 1909 until his defeat at the 1910 election by the ALP’s William Finlayson.
Finlayson held the seat until 1919, when he was defeated by Donald Charles Cameron of the Nationalist Party. Cameron held the seat until 1931, when he lost the seat against the tide of conservative gains against the Scullin Government. Cameron returned to serve one term in the neighbouring seat of Lilley from 1934 to 1937.
The ALP held the seat continuously for the next fourty-four years, with only two MPs holding the seat from 1931 until 1975. George Lawson won the seat in 1931 and held it until 1961. He served as Minister for Transport from 1941 until the 1943 election. The seat was then held by Manfred Cross until his defeat by Liberal Peter Johnson in 1975. Johnson defeated Cross again in 1977 before Cross won the seat back in 1980.
Cross held the seat until his retirement in 1990, when the ALP chose Arch Bevis, who has held the seat ever since. While Brisbane has never been held by a large margin, it came closest to being lost to the Liberals in 1996, when Bevis’ margin was cut to 0.36%.
In 2010, the Liberal National Party ran former MP Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro had served as member for the marginal seat of Petrie from 1996 until she was defeated in 2007.
Alongside Bevis and Gambaro, the Greens ran former Democrats leader and former Senator Andrew Bartlett. Bevis suffered a 5.7% swing, and Gambaro won the seat. Bartlett polled 21.3%, the highest vote for the Greens in Queensland.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Teresa Gambaro is presumably running for re-election. The ALP is running Fiona McNamara. The Greens are running Rachael Jacobs. Katter’s Australian Party is running Connie Cicchini.
Assessment
Brisbane is not the typical Liberal seat – it includes progressive inner-city areas, but unlike in Sydney and Melbourne these areas aren’t sufficiently concentrated to create a straight Labor-Greens contest.
The seat is a centre of Greens support in Queensland and will be a focus of the Greens campaign. The slim two-party margin is only achieved thanks to Greens preferences to the ALP – Labor falls far behind the LNP on primary votes. If Labor is to win they will need to win back some Greens votes and ensure they keep a high flow of preferences.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Teresa Gambaro | LNP | 37,191 | 45.89 | +4.08 |
| Arch Bevis | ALP | 24,623 | 30.38 | -13.22 |
| Andrew Bartlett | GRN | 17,244 | 21.28 | +10.12 |
| Mark White | FF | 1,274 | 1.57 | +0.44 |
| Ewan Saunders | SA | 717 | 0.88 | +0.36 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Teresa Gambaro | LNP | 41,440 | 51.13 | +5.73 |
| Arch Bevis | ALP | 39,609 | 48.87 | -5.73 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- Central – Brisbane, Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Spring Hill, Windsor.
- North East – Ascot, Clayfield, Hendra, Stafford
- West – Alderley, Ashgrove, Ithaca, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Paddington, Red Hill
The LNP only won a majority in the north east, with a 58.6% majority. The ALP won a majority of 52% in the other two parts of the seat. The Greens vote polled around 23-24% in the centre and the west, and under 16% in the north east.
Polling booths in Brisbane at the 2010 federal election. Central in blue, North East in green, West in orange.
| Voter group | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 23.03 | 47.77 | 25,240 | 31.14 |
| North East | 15.86 | 58.58 | 18,820 | 23.22 |
| Central | 24.43 | 47.75 | 15,955 | 19.69 |
| Other votes | 21.62 | 51.06 | 21,034 | 25.95 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Brisbane at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Brisbane at the 2010 federal election.
If Gambaro survives it will be because the cheapest private school in Australia – Ascot State School – comes through with another 75%+ 2PP.
The Clayfield pocket had to go somewhere, and it was either going to be with Swan or Bevis. If that area had stayed in Lilley, Swan would have probably lost his seat in 2010.
I don’t think the LNP only won because of Ascot State School. It was also Labor’s failure to win any large booth by a substantial margin (greater than 55% 2PP).
In addition to that, for Labor to win back the seat, they need to really hit the largest booth in the seat (Wilston State School) and win that.
For the LNP to hold it, they need to get a greater proportion of Greens preferences (Which they did in 2010, and they tend to do in inner-city areas), and try to win some more support in the northwestern booths around Ashgrove (which they won’t, thanks to Campbell Newman).
I was surprised when Gambaro won this seat last time.
To my knowledge, Gambaro is aligned with the conservative Santoro faction of the QLD Liberals, and surely a conservative in a seat like Brisbane should have been no chance there, even with its narrow margin and with Queenslanders white hot over the ousting of their Kevvie.
I might’ve said that she’d hold the seat, if Abbott is as popular with Queenslanders as some believe, but the Newman Government’s job cuts make me think again.
Fiona McNamara is the ALP Candidate for this in 2013
I originally expected Labor to pick this up notwithstanding a sophomore surge to Gambaro. But the Greens will bleed votes here to Labor and Labor will probably bleed some votes to the Liberals. Tough to call but Gambaro is a good MP and she might just get over the line.
If Labor was going to pick up a seat in the country with a whitewash that is now becoming the expectation, this would have to be one of the favourites.
The resurgence in support for Newman’s Government won’t hurt her cause either.
This is one of the two seats I think that Labor has a chance at winning the other one being Aston in Victoria. It is one of the wealthier electorate were the swing to the liberals was highest and the ALP support is very unlikely to fall. The Greens vote seems soft since it includes protest voters as well as left-wing ones. If Teresa Gambaro is to be elected she needs to attract those protest voters some of whom used to vote for the Democrats. Be this as it mayTeresa has three things going for her. One whatever people may say about her she is an excellent campaigner who held Petrie for 9 years until the Rudd Slide washed her away in 2007. Petrie is not a safe LNP electorate by any stretch of the imagination. One whatever people may say about her she is an excellent campaigner two she is likely to get a sophomore surge even in an electorate which leans towards Labor, just look at Morley. Three I really have a hard time seeing Liberal voters changing their vote in 2013. It may still fall to Labor, but only if the Liberals get blinded by the amount of Labor seats in play and overlook their defenses. I expect it to be taken by Labor in 2016, but it would require a huge effort on their part in 2013.