Runcorn – Brisbane 2016

Council margin – LNP 17.3%
Mayoral margin – LNP 23.5%

Incumbent councillor
Kim Marx, councillor for Karawatha since 2012.

Geography
Outer south of Brisbane. Runcorn covers the suburbs of Kuraby, Runcorn, Sunnybank and Sunnybank Hills.

Map of Runcorn's 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Runcorn’s 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Runcorn is considered to be a successor to Karawatha ward, which shifted north, losing Calamvale, Drewvale and parts of Stretton. Runcorn gained areas north of Beenleigh Road, from MacGregor ward. These changes increased the LNP council margin from 16.3% to 17.3, and increased the LNP mayoral margin from 22.7% to 23.5%.

History
Labor candidate Gail MacPherson won Runcorn ward in 1994. She was re-elected in Runcorn in 1997, 2000 and 2004. Her margin at the 2004 election was a very slim 2.2%.

The 2008 redistribution split the Runcorn ward between the new wards of Karawatha and Macgregor. MacPherson ran for Karawatha, which had a 2.9% margin, and she was re-elected despite a 1.4% swing.

In 2012, MacPherson retired, and Liberal National candidate Kim Marx defeated Labor candidate Adrienne Cremin with a 17.8% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Runcorn is one of a number of wards which was considered highly marginal prior to the 2012 election, when the LNP won the seat with a massive swing. Labor will be hoping to claw back that swing in 2016, but it’ll be hard to get enough of a swing to win the ward.

2012 council result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kim Marx Liberal National 13,718 66.3 +17.8 64.7
Adrienne Cremin Labor 6,979 33.7 -17.8 30.7
Others 2.3
Greens 2.3
Informal 730 3.4

2012 council two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kim Marx Liberal National 13,71866.3+17.867.3
Adrienne Cremin Labor 6,97933.7-17.832.7

2012 mayoral result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 13,938 67.6 +8.5 68.0
Ray Smith Labor 4,845 23.5 -10.1 22.4
Andrew Bartlett Greens 1,214 5.9 +1.8 6.5
Rory Killen Independent 407 2.0 +2.0 1.9
Chris Carson Independent 230 1.1 +1.1 1.2
Informal 657 3.1

2012 mayoral two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 14,11272.7+9.473.5
Ray Smith Labor 5,29327.3-9.426.5
Exhausted1,229
Polling places in Runcorn at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Polling places in Runcorn at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. East in green, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Runcorn have been split into two halves: east and west.

The LNP’s majority is slightly larger in the west – 68% in the council election and 74% in the mayoral election, compared to 64.5% and 72.3% in the east.

Voter groupLNP council 2PPLNP mayoral 2PPTotal votes% of votes
West68.073.68,16138.8
East64.572.36,97433.1
Other votes69.774.85,90428.1
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Runcorn at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Runcorn at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for mayor in Runcorn at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for mayor in Runcorn at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.

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