Northgate – Brisbane 2016

Council margin – ALP 0.4%
Mayoral margin – LNP 21.1%

Incumbent councillor
Kim Flesser, since 1997.

Geography
Northern Brisbane. Northgate covers the suburbs of Nudgee, Banyo, Northgate and Wavell Heights.

Redistribution
No significant changes.

History
Labor’s Kim Flesser has held Northgate since 1997.

Flesser managed 59.5% of the primary vote in 2000, but his margin was cut to 5.9% in 2004.

In 2008, Flesser’s margin was cut even further to 1.6%. In 2012, Flesser managed to keep the anti-Labor swing to a slim 1.2% and hold on with an extremely slim margin.

Candidates
Sitting Labor councillor Kim Flesser is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Northgate has been a key marginal seat for at least the last three elections. While it’s hard to see the LNP gaining any further ground on top of their huge victory in 2012, the loss of the sitting councillor should make Labor nervous in Northgate.

2012 council result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Kim Flesser Labor 10,62250.4+3.5
Laurie Bell Liberal National 10,47049.6+4.6
Informal5272.4

2012 mayoral result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Graham Quirk Liberal National 11,88956.3+0.7
Ray Smith Labor 6,94932.9-2.2
Andrew Bartlett Greens 1,8008.5+1.7
Rory KillenIndependent2911.4+1.4
Chris CarsonIndependent1980.9+0.9
Informal4842.2

2012 mayoral two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Graham Quirk Liberal National 12,16061.5+1.1
Ray Smith Labor 7,60738.5-1.1
Exhausted1,360
Polling places in Northgate at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. Central in orange, North in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Northgate at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. Central in orange, North in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Northgate have been split into three parts: central, north and west.

The ALP’s council vote ranged from 46.6% in the west to 55.3% in the north.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the mayoral election, ranging from 55.6% in the north to 65% in the west.

Voter groupALP council 2PPLNP mayoral 2PPTotal votes% of votes
Central51.562.07,57035.8
West46.665.14,65622.0
North55.355.64,19119.8
Other votes47.962.64,71022.3
Two-party-preferred votes for mayor in Northgate at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for mayor in Northgate at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Northgate at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Northgate at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.

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